4.29 minutes of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting
Face to face: yesterday's dollar index closed at 99.974, down 0.066%, down 0.07%, recorded three consecutive negative; Lun aluminum closed yesterday at $1504 / ton, down $3 / ton, down 0.2%, yesterday LME aluminum inventory rose more than 10, 000 tons, stock around 1.347 million tons; Shanghai aluminum main force 2006 contract closed yesterday at 12485 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton, up 0.6%. Macro: 1) according to Johns Hopkins University real-time statistics, so far, the world's new crown pneumonia has been confirmed in more than 3.1 million cases. The number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeded 1 million. During the whole day of April 27, there were 69400 new confirmed cases of pneumonia in the world, the lowest since March 30. With the consent of the State Council, the Ministry of Transport will resume tolls (including toll bridges and tunnels) approved by law from 00:00 on May 6. According to a document released by the State Grid on April 21, the net profit of the State Grid in the first quarter of this year was-920 million yuan, compared with 15.3 billion yuan in the same period last year. Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Taxation, Development and Reform Commission: from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2030, enterprise income tax will be levied at a reduced rate of 15% for encouraged industrial enterprises located in the western region. The term "encouraged industrial enterprises" as mentioned in this Article refers to enterprises whose main business is the industrial projects specified in the catalogue of encouraged Industries in the Western region, and whose main business income accounts for more than 60% of the total income of the enterprises. Fundamentals: 1) China's aluminum plate and strip exports totaled 256000 tons in March 2020, up 61.03 percent from the previous month and 4.42 percent from the previous year, and monthly exports refreshed the highest level since July 2018. Mexico, South Korea and Canada remain the top three countries in terms of aluminum strip exports in terms of export countries, and aluminum strip exports are expected to fall back in April. (bearish) 2) the recent aluminum price inner plate is stronger than the outer plate, according to the SMM import and export break-even table calculation, there is profit room for imports. However, in view of the fact that in the actual import process, the shipping time is delayed from two weeks to a month, and there is uncertainty about the change of aluminum price in the later stage, and the current shipping is blocked due to the impact of the epidemic, in fact, there is no significant import of aluminum ingots. (neutral) 3) because the processing fee of aluminum bar in Guangdong has risen to more than 1000 yuan in the early stage, which is obviously higher than that in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other places, more aluminum bars in China have flowed to Guangdong, and the local processing fee has now dropped to 650750 yuan / ton. In addition, due to the more short-term profits of aluminum bars, there are signs of resumption of production in the northwest, southwest and other places, feedback that the downstream construction profiles maintain a good state of development in the short term. Spot side: yesterday morning, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quoted between 12580-12600 yuan / ton, spot price rose 90 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, disk rising water concentrated in 60-80 yuan / ton, the morning market trading is more active, the receiving inquiry is more active, 11: 00 aluminum center of gravity up, the holder quotation began to focus on 12610 yuan / ton, but the late market transaction heat fell back. The actual closing situation is not early enough. Downstream on-demand procurement yesterday, due to rising aluminum prices and higher water, for the time being did not show a positive willingness to stock. Summary: at present, the domestic epidemic situation is basically under control, the macro atmosphere has improved, and the arrival and supply of aluminum ingots on the supply and demand side have decreased in the short term. Under the background of gradual improvement in terminal consumption, the demand for goods in advance of May Day has surged. It is expected that spot and futures aluminum prices will remain strong and fluctuate before the festival, and the scope for decline will be limited. Pay attention to the possible collection and storage related news in other provinces in the later stage.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)