4.20 minutes of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting
Trading: on Friday, the dollar index closed at 99.716, down 0.36%, or 0.36%, in the small negative line; Lun aluminum closed last week at $1505 / ton, down $8 / ton, down 0.53%; Shanghai aluminum main force 2006 contract closed at 12410 yuan / ton, up 325 yuan / ton, up 2.69%, recorded four Lianyang, the center of gravity significantly moved up.
Macro view: 1) according to real-time data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of about 06:30 Beijing time on the 20th, there were more than 2.39 million confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia worldwide, more than 16 deaths, and more than 750000 confirmed cases in the United States. the death toll exceeded 40, 000. (bearish) 2) China's first quarter GDP annual rate-single quarter (%), previous value: 6, expected:-6, announced:-6.8. China's January-March annual rate of retail sales of consumer goods (%), previous value:-20.5, expected:-12.5, published:-19. Annual rate of industrial value added above March in China (%), previous value:-5.4, expected:-6.2, announced:-1.1. Mao Shengyong, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said: on the whole, the overall economic and social situation in China remained stable under the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the first quarter. At the same time, we should also note that the current international epidemic continues to spread, the downside risks of the world economy have intensified, the uncertain factors of instability have increased significantly, and the resumption of work and production and economic and social development are facing new difficulties and challenges. (bearish) 3) the people's Bank of China released financial data for the first quarter. At the end of March, the M2 balance of broad money increased by 10.1% compared with the same period last year. In March, RMB loans increased by 2.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan from the same period last year. The cumulative increase in social financing in the first quarter was 11.08 trillion yuan, of which RMB loans to the real economy increased by 7.25 trillion yuan. (a lot of money)
Fundamentals: 1) the price of electrolytic aluminum rose more than 500 yuan / ton last week, superimposed domestic alumina prices have reached a low level of nearly 3 years, the cash flow of electrolytic aluminum plants tends to be loose in the short term, and the willingness to purchase raw materials increases. At the same time, the spot inventory pressure of alumina plants and holder traders is small, and the willingness to offer prices is enhanced. It is expected that in the short term, supported by the rise in electrolytic aluminum prices and the expected reduction in alumina production, alumina spot prices will also record a certain rebound, but the height of the rebound will be restrained by the downward movement of costs. Last week, SMM conducted a new round of research on the domestic aluminum processing downstream leading enterprises, overall, the start of construction last week showed a small decline, the overall remained stable. Among them, the raw aluminum processing plate building materials industry has reached full production, the follow-up high probability to maintain a stable state, continue to ascend space is very limited. Other sections only related to construction, medicine-related orders are still hot, but it is still difficult to hide the lack of overall consumption growth. For future orders, export order concerns did not abate in May, and there is still a risk of an export order fault in May. (bearish aluminum) 3) due to the continuous rise in aluminum prices, the price difference between recycled aluminum and raw aluminum has been greatly reduced, the current recycled aluminum enterprises have been unable to use A00 aluminum to supplement raw materials. (neutral)
Spot end: on Friday morning, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quotation between 12140-12160 yuan / ton, 10:30 late aluminum rose, the holder quotation began to focus on 12160-12180 yuan / ton, the disk discount 10-liter 10 yuan / ton, part of the quotation was close to 12190-12200 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area holder quotation in 12170-12190 yuan / ton. Before noon, the trading between the holder and the middleman is more active, because the aluminum price changes greatly in the afternoon, the trader arrives frequently, the transaction between the buyer and seller is very active, the actual trading volume is obviously more than a few days ago. Downstream on-demand pick-up on the same day, although near Friday a small number of goods, but due to the volatility of aluminum prices, the later performance wait and see. The overall transaction in East China was better on the same day.
Summary: this week's macro uncertainty news and fundamentals bearish factors still exist, in view of the big increase in aluminum prices last week, continue to increase the risk of one-way buy more this week, it is suggested that short sellers in the aluminum price correction phase next week to avoid the risk of a sharp rise in aluminum prices caused by possible macro stimulus at the end of the month. In addition, as far as the internal and external market is concerned, if the overall mood in the domestic market is improving next week, it is suggested that the position can be tested.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)