4.17 minutes of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting
Trading: yesterday, the dollar index closed at 100.08, up 0.507, or 0.51%, closed at a small positive line, the high brushed the latest week high, Lun aluminum closed yesterday at $1513 / ton, up 1 dollar / ton, up 0.07%, Shanghai aluminum rose 135 yuan / ton to 12085 yuan / ton, up 1.13%. The high point of 12125 yuan / ton refreshed the highest level since March 23.
Macroscopically: 1) according to the epidemic statistics of New Crown pneumonia at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of about 06:30 Beijing time on April 17, there were more than 2.15 million confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world, a total of 2151199 cases, and a total of more than 140000 deaths. More than 660000 cases have been diagnosed and more than 32000 deaths have been reported in the United States. (bearish claims) 2) the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States last week was 5.245 million, and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States within a month was close to 22 million. Last week, 11.976 million people continued to apply for unemployment benefits, a new high. (bearish accounting) 3) according to preliminary accounting, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was 20.6504 trillion yuan, down 6.8 percent from the same period last year. In terms of sub-industries, the added value of the primary industry was 1.0186 trillion yuan, down 3.2%; the added value of the secondary industry was 7.3638 trillion yuan, down 9.6%; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 12.268 trillion yuan, down 5.2%. Although the data has fallen, it is basically in line with market expectations. (bearish)
Fundamentals: 1) due to the rising price of A00 aluminum ingot, the price of recycled aluminum fell back, and the price difference between the two narrowed. At present, the substitution effect of A00 aluminum ingot on waste aluminum gradually disappeared. (neutral) 2) on April 16, the storage pressure can also be superimposed on the demand side of the performance of warming, SMM statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory fell by 112000 tons to 1.495 million tons compared with the previous Thursday. Among them, the South China Sea, Wuxi and Gongyi areas decreased significantly. (Lido) 3) stocks of aluminum bars were down 5200 tons to 164900 tons from last Thursday. Foshan, Huzhou, Nanchang aluminum bar inventory decreased, of which Foshan fell the largest; Wuxi, Changzhou aluminum bar inventory increased slightly. It is reported that Wuxi and Guangdong downstream profile manufacturers recently hoarding rhythm has dropped slightly. (Lido)
Spot end: in the morning, the price quoted by the holder in Wuxi area of Shanghai is between 1198011990 yuan / ton, which is 120 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous day. After 10: 30, the quotation is concentrated in 1201012030 yuan / ton. 10-liter water 10-10 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area holder quotation in 11910-11920 yuan / ton. Morning shippers are more active, middlemen generally receive goods, with the aluminum price upward, coupled with a large market receiving price is better, the overall market quotation upward, at this time the shipper convergence performance wait and see, although the middleman actively receive the goods, but at this time it is more difficult to close the deal.
Summary: at present, the scope of maintenance and production reduction in aluminum plants is gradually expanding, consumption can be maintained in the short term, and weekly inventory reduction of more than 100000 tons has boosted the market. In the context of the improvement in domestic macro sentiment, aluminum prices have rebounded slightly in the short term. However, considering that the global empty haze brought about by the epidemic is difficult to dissipate in the short term, it will continue to pressure aluminum prices inside and outside, and it is expected that the upward space above will be limited. In the long-term fundamentals, we pay attention to the changes of domestic trade and export orders in April / May, and the pace of maintenance and production reduction of electrolytic aluminum plants, and pay attention to the impact of national macro-control measures on market sentiment.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)