4.15 minutes of SMM Aluminium Internal Morning meeting
Trading: yesterday, the dollar index closed at 98.875, down 0.629, or 0.63%. Lun Aluminium closed at $1515 / ton, up 31 dollars / ton, up 2.09%, closed at the small positive line, high hit $1515 / ton, recovered all the decline since April 2, Shanghai aluminum main 2006 contract closed at 11770 yuan / ton, up 15 yuan / ton, up 0.13%.
Macroscopically: 1) Real-time statistical data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of 0643 Beijing time on April 15, 2020, a total of 1961965 cases were confirmed worldwide, 125678 cases died, and a total of 185 countries and regions were diagnosed. (bearish) 2) Gold prices soared yesterday, with spot gold surging nearly 2 per cent, refreshing its November 2012 high of $1747.36 an ounce as investors flocked to gold as the new crown epidemic ravaged the global economy and triggered a massive stimulus package. The total value of China's imports and exports of goods in the first quarter was 6.57 trillion yuan, down 6.4 percent from the same period last year. Of this total, exports totaled 3.33 trillion yuan, down 11.4 percent; imports totaled 3.24 trillion yuan, down 0.7 percent; and the trade surplus was 98.33 billion yuan, down 80.6 percent. (bearish)
Fundamentals: 1) at present, the electrolytic aluminum plant reduces production-overhaul involves more than 880000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, coupled with some of the electrolytic aluminum production capacity considered for maintenance, the total amount is close to 1 million tons, paying attention to the role of aluminum price support by the pace of production reduction and shutdown of aluminum plants. At present, the consumption of aluminum downstream is relatively empty in April, domestic trade may be better than foreign trade, and pay attention to the degree of foreign trade dragged down by the foreign epidemic. Due to the reduction of production costs (such as ore, energy, etc.) of alumina plants, there is a downward trend in alumina market quotation at present. At present, the weighted quotation of SMM alumina is less than 2100 yuan / ton. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in March were around 518590 tons, up 60.38 percent from February and down 5.02 percent from March last year. From January to March 2020, unwrought aluminum and aluminum exports totaled around 1.1876 million tons, down 17.59 percent from the same period in 2019. The month-on-month increase in exports in March is mainly due to the backward movement of previous orders, coupled with the decline in the Shanghai-London ratio and the depreciation of the RMB, and it is expected that there will be a decline in April. (bearish)
Spot end: before noon yesterday, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quotation in 11790-11810 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day price is basically the same, to the disk sticker 10-liter water 10 yuan / ton, Hangzhou area holder quotation in 11820-11840 yuan / ton. Before noon, the shipper is very active, the middleman is slightly less willing to receive the goods, the two sides can trade, but the actual activity is not as good as last week. The downstream was still dominated by goods on demand yesterday.
Summary: macro empty haze is difficult to dissipate in the short term, will continue to pressure the internal and external plate aluminum price, the current internal Back price difference is 30 yuan / near, the market sentiment tends to be near strong and far weak, the long-term fundamentals pay attention to the changes of domestic trade and export orders in April / May, and the pace of maintenance and production reduction of electrolytic aluminum plants. In addition, in view of the possibility of falsification of market tax reduction related news, it is recommended to carefully build a large number of databases.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)