4. 13 minutes of the internal morning meeting of SMM aluminum
Trading: last Friday, the dollar index closed at 99.495, down 0.048, down 0.05%, closed in the small negative line, Lun aluminum closed on Friday, foreign Easter, the outer market continued to stop trading, Shanghai aluminum main force 2006 contract closed on Friday at 11845 yuan / ton, up 190 yuan / ton, up 1.63%.
Macro view: 1) Real-time statistical data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of 06:30 Beijing time on April 12, a total of 1765030 cases of new crown pneumonia have been confirmed worldwide, 108281 cases have died and 401873 cases have been cured. A total of 524903 cases were confirmed and 20389 cases died in the United States. OPEC + confirmed the first round of production cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day for a period of two months from May 1, 2020, following days of negotiations and repeated consultations between OPEC and its oil production allies. It was the biggest cut in history, with production cuts close to about 10 per cent of the world's oil supply. 3) China's M2 money supply grew at an annual rate of 8.8 per cent, forecast 8.8 per cent and announced 10.1 per cent in March. Ruan Jianhong, director of the investigation and Statistics Department of the Central Bank, said: the M2 growth rate has increased considerably, and on the whole, it has effectively supported epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Under the guidance of the policy, commercial banks put in more credit, which promoted the recovery of M2 growth rate, and the liquidity of the whole society remained in a reasonable and abundant state. (a lot of money)
Fundamentals: 1) SMM statistics on Friday domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises operating rate in the vicinity of 76.9%, compared with the previous week slightly improved, in which the original aluminum processing plate in addition to the original alloy, the previous backlog of orders so that the start in April is still stable, the building materials industry due to export impact on small domestic demand is currently a small number of bright spots in domestic aluminum processing consumption. On the order side in May, the export order fault is expected to appear, with the most obvious impact on the plate, strip and foil, which involves more exports. In the aspect of regenerated aluminum, due to the shortage of waste aluminum supply at home and abroad, it is expected that the consumption of raw aluminum will continue under the shortage of raw material supply in April. It is expected that the overall start of the aluminum processing industry next week will be stable, affected by the decline in some export orders or will decline slightly. (bearish) 2) the weighted price of alumina in SMM four places has fallen by more than 450 yuan / ton since the beginning of March and is currently quoted at around 2121 yuan / ton. The falling price of alumina will give the electrolytic aluminum plant a respite from its plans to cut production. On April 10, 2020, the fifth batch of waste aluminum import quota of China solid waste Chemical Management Network in 2020 was announced, and the approved import volume of aluminum scrap was 191100 tons. However, in view of the impact of the current epidemic on maritime logistics, it is expected that the actual implementation of imported waste aluminum will be greatly reduced, so it is difficult to rapidly increase the domestic supply of waste aluminum. Domestic waste aluminum prices remain stable in the short term. (neutral)
Spot end: last Friday, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quotation in 11730-11750 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day price rose 130 yuan / ton, discount 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui, Hangzhou area holder quotation in 11740-11760 yuan / ton, before noon, the shipper is active, middlemen trading is also active, another large household in East China received nearly 10,000 tons, the overall transaction between traders is better. Due to the approach of Friday, the willingness to stock downstream increased, the status of receiving goods has improved significantly compared with the previous two days.
Summary: the macro empty haze is difficult to dissipate in the short term, and will continue to put pressure on the internal and external aluminum prices, taking into account the possible macro stimulus measures related to tax cuts in late April in China, pay attention to the changes in trading sentiment in the domestic market, and whether the removal of spot dominant inventory is sustained.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)