4.7 Summary of SMM Aluminum Internal Morning meeting
Trading: on Friday, the dollar index closed at 100.78, up 0.07%, recording Silianyang. Lun aluminum closed at $1475 / ton, down $5 / ton, down 0.34%, and a low of $1459.5 / ton, the lowest level since the beginning of 2016. Shanghai Aluminum closed at 11445 yuan / ton on Friday, up 70 yuan / ton, or 0.61%.
Macro view: 1) the latest statistics on the global new crown epidemic situation at Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of 01:30 Beijing time on the 7th, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide exceeded 1.3 million, with a total death toll of more than 70, 000, of which the United States confirmed more than 330000. It is the country with the largest number of confirmed cases in the world. (bearish) 2) the people's Bank of China decided to reduce the target for small and medium-sized banks in April 2020 and implement it twice on April 15 and May 15, each with a reduction of 0.5 percentage points, releasing a total of about 400 billion yuan of long-term funds. The central bank decided to lower the interest rate on excess reserves for financial institutions with the central bank from 0.72 per cent to 0.35 per cent from April 7. (Lido) 3) following a slowdown in the growth of new cases in several of the world's worst affected areas, the spread of the global epidemic appears to have slowed and venture capital preferences have been boosted. Us President Donald Trump says the US epidemic has begun to stabilize and says he is still considering restarting the US economy. (a lot of money)
Fundamentals: 1) cost end: due to the sharp fall in energy prices, superimposed alumina itself relative supply surplus, the current alumina price fell more than 300yuan / ton after the year, there is further room for further decline, the current SMM quoted the average price of the four places around 2246 yuan / ton. At present, the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in China is about 655000 tons, involving Gansu, Chongqing, Shanxi and Yunnan. According to the current production reduction trend, the reduction is not obvious, and it is expected that the reduction in production in the first half of the year will have a limited impact on the supply and demand of aluminum ingots themselves. According to the weekly operation rate of leading domestic aluminum processing enterprises counted by SMM on Friday, the operating rate of large downstream aluminum processing enterprises has entered a bottleneck period, and some enterprises have even experienced a retrogression in operating rate, and generally feedback that exports may decline significantly in April, and orders are limited. (bearish) 4) Guangdong aluminum bar processing fees rose to more than 700 yuan / ton on Friday (April 3), up more than 100 for the second week in a row. The current aluminum bar processing fee has exceeded last year's highest point, from the peak of nearly four years is only more than 100 yuan away. The main reason is that the inventory continues to decline, the holder does not hoard the goods and the demand of the downstream profile factory is better as a result of the comprehensive effect. (a lot of money)
Spot end: last Friday morning, Shanghai Wuxi area holder quoted between 11600-11610 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day price rose more than 300 yuan / ton, 10: 30 after the plate price fell back, the holder quoted between 1157011590 yuan / ton, the afternoon market price of 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui, Hangzhou price concentrated in the morning between 1163011650 yuan / ton, transaction rare. After 10: 30, it fell back to 11570-11590 yuan / ton. In the morning, the trading of traders in Shanghai and tin was OK, the middleman's inquiry was more active, and a large customer also received some goods in the morning. As the aluminum price fell back, the transaction heat of the market after 11: 00 was not early either. At this time, although some of the cardholders began to reduce their prices and tend to ship the goods, the actual transactions were not done in the morning. This morning, the spot transaction to the month discount of 10 yuan / ton near.
Summary: the central bank issued a large amount of economic stimulus measures, the biggest reduction in 12 years, the macro atmosphere improved today, the metal rose, aluminum prices rose significantly in the morning, but considering that inventories are still high and the forward expectations of downstream consumption are weak, the expected increases are limited, and there is still a risk of falling back in the long run. Pay attention to the recovery and export of terminal consumption in the later stage.
(SMM Xuman 021-51595898)