10.23 minutes of SMM Internal Aluminium Morning meeting
Disk: yesterday, Lun aluminum opened at $1725 / ton, Asian plate to European market short horizontal session after a U-turn downward, North American trading session Lun aluminum tried to rebound and then fell back, closed at $1719 / ton, down 0.29%, mainly to long positions; Shanghai aluminum company 1912 contract performance first suppressed and then rose, closing at 13790 yuan / ton at night, up 0.25%, mainly long positions.
Macro: (1) according to the website of the Ministry of Commerce, the US Department of Commerce recently issued an announcement saying that it would launch an exclusion procedure for China's US $300 billion tariff list products from October 31. From 31 October 2019 to 31 January 2020, United States stakeholders may apply to the Office of the United States Trade Representative for exclusion, the information to be provided includes the substitutability of the products concerned, whether anti-dumping countervailing duties have been levied, whether they are of strategic significance or are related to industrial policies such as made in China 2025. If the exclusion application is approved, the tariffs that have been imposed since September 1, 2019 can be refunded retroactively. (2) Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: the relevant departments of the State Council are formulating a new round of documents to support the development of industrial design. After the release of the document, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will guide the implementation of the documents in Northeast provinces and cities and strive to create a good atmosphere for the development of industrial design; (3) if the EU agrees to postpone the Brexit date to January, the only way to get Britain out of the Brexit crisis is to hold new elections, a source in Prime Minister Johnson's office said on Tuesday.
Fundamentals: (1) in China, Luoyang launched a red alert for heavy pollution weather, alumina and electrolytic aluminum enterprises implemented performance classification emission reduction, Luoyang area only one alumina plant, has stopped two roasting furnaces, one of which ultra-low baking furnace will be accepted on the 25th of this month; On October 22, Fujian property Rights Exchange Center listed 75000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity index withdrawn from Fujian Nanping Aluminum Co., Ltd., Nanping Aluminum production Plant is located in Nanping City, Fujian Province, completed and put into production in 2004, approved production capacity of 75000 tons / year, in March 2019 shut down a series of 75000 tons electrolytic aluminum production line, a total of 112 electrolytic cells. In June 2019, all electrolytic cells and supporting facilities in a series of two workshops were dismantled. (2) overseas: the US Department of Commerce said in an email statement that Chinese exporters sold aluminum wires and cables in the United States below fair value and received subsidies, resulting in countervailing duties. The Ministry of Commerce is in Encore Wire Corp.. And Southwire Co. Take action after making a request.
Spot: the quotation of the two places in Shanghai Wuxi market yesterday was concentrated between 13920-13940 yuan / ton, and the spot price was 40 yuan / ton lower than that of yesterday. The price difference between next month and the current month is less than 20 yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou is 13930-13950 yuan / ton. Downstream manufacturers of a small number of goods, part of the downstream although there is a willingness to receive goods, but in view of the above invoice problems, the holder does not ship much, the actual transaction is not much. The overall transaction in East China is OK, although it is slightly deadlocked, but it is mainly affected by short-term financial settlement factors. Recently, in the morning, East China spot rose 90 yuan / ton near, the mood of receiving goods is high.
Summary: the contradiction between long and short in the short-term market still exists, although the supply increase is expected, but the actual growth rate is slow. With the recovery after the consumption holiday, the spot social inventory continues to go to the warehouse. At the present stage, the consumption can still go to the warehouse to continue to make the industry still need to give electrolytic aluminum a certain profit space, should not be too bearish, we should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption. Due to the increase in overseas alumina supply and weak demand, the internal and external positive sleeve will drag down the increased risk and can appropriately reduce the position. The monthly difference between SHFE contracts maintains a pattern of near strength and far weakness, which can be properly intervened.
(SMM Li Hao)