10. 21 minutes of internal aluminum morning meeting of SMM
Disk: last Friday, Shanghai and London aluminum rose slightly. Lun aluminum opened as low as $1727 a tonne in the morning, bottomed slightly at $1723 a tonne after opening, then turned upwards, peaking at $1743 a tonne, closing at $1736 a tonne, up 0.43 per cent to close at four even positive. Shanghai aluminum company 1912 contract opened at 13890 yuan / ton, day shock downward, night trading high at 13915 yuan / ton, closed at 13885 yuan / ton, up 0.11%.
Macro: (1) Prime Minister Boris Johnson was thwarted by bipartisan politicians in Parliament on Saturday, who voted to postpone a revote on his new Brexit agreement. and forced him to ask the European Union to extend the current October 31 deadline for Brexit, and sterling payments surged more than 300 points last week, up more than 2%, sending the US index to a new low in nearly three months; (2) the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the (IMF) decision-making body of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), urged all parties on the 19th to resolve trade tensions and support the necessary reforms of the World Trade Organization ((WTO)) to promote global economic growth. (3) the new global photovoltaic installed capacity in 2018 is about 100GW, accounting for nearly 70% of the new installed capacity in Asia. In recent years, the global photovoltaic market has continued to expand at a high speed; (4) Lu Wenshan, deputy secretary of the party committee and director of supervision of the last issue, pointed out that the last issue will promote product innovation, speed up the listing of alumina futures, and promote the research and development of rare earth futures, zinc options, and aluminum options.
Fundamentals: alumina: alumina prices in northern and Guangxi, Guizhou areas maintained a small rise last week, alumina factory shipment willingness to rise; auxiliary materials: aluminum fluoride prices fell abnormally compared with previous years, mainly due to weak demand, the current AF-1 market is generally quoted around 9500 yuan / ton, and Chinalco purchase price is as low as 9000 yuan / ton; Waste aluminum: according to the approval list of the 13th batch of imported waste aluminum released on Thursday, the import of waste aluminum by the main imported waste aluminum enterprises has been greatly reduced by 85%, and the 13th batch of imported waste aluminum has been approved for a total of 44935 tons, corresponding to the import volume of 274955 tons in the third quarter, a drop of 83.66%. The domestic waste aluminum supply will continue to be tight in the fourth quarter. Due to the relatively limited number of aluminum alloy ingots imported in October, the high probability of aluminum scrap aluminum shortage continues. Some of the imported aluminum alloy ingots from November to December will alleviate the shortage of domestic waste aluminum supply to a certain extent, but it is still relatively limited. Inventory: today SMM will update the domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum bar social inventory, the probability of continued decline.
Spot: on Friday morning, quotations in Shanghai Wuxi market were concentrated in the range of 14010-14030 yuan / ton, 70-80 yuan / ton on the surface of the market, the supply of goods in the morning market was tight, the offer of the holder was strong, the middleman received the goods actively, and the two sides traded fairly well. With the gradual decline of aluminum futures, the actual transaction prices in Shanghai and tin markets began to concentrate between 1399014010 yuan / ton after 10: 30, and the rising water was the same as in the morning. The price in Hangzhou is between 14030-14050 yuan / ton. Downstream manufacturers mainly go on demand, because spot aluminum prices in the high underwater over the ten thousand four hurdles, and has risen for four consecutive days, downstream performance wait and see, although near the weekend, the actual stock is not as expected. East China as a whole, the deal is OK. Recently morning, East China spot rose 60 yuan / ton near, shipments slightly rebounded from last week.
Summary: the contradiction between long and short in the short-term market still exists, although the supply increase is expected, but the actual growth rate is slow. With the recovery after the consumption holiday, the spot social inventory continues to go to the warehouse. At the present stage, the consumption can still go to the warehouse to continue to make the industry still need to give electrolytic aluminum a certain profit space, should not be too bearish, we should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption. Due to the increase in overseas alumina supply and weak demand, the internal and external positive sleeve will drag down the increased risk and can appropriately reduce the position. The monthly difference between SHFE contracts maintains a pattern of near strength and far weakness, which can be properly intervened.
(SMM Li Hao)