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[SMM Survey] North Timber heading South is ready to start
Oct 15,2019 18:13CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.


As the northern region was hit by cold air in the middle and late October, even on the 13th, Changchun, Shenyang and other places have ushered in the first snow of this year, the local demand has gradually weakened, and the curtain of northern materials has been slowly pulled down to the south. According to SMM research, up to now, the arrival of northern timber in East China and South China has increased, but due to the centralized shipment has not been opened, coupled with the south is still in the construction peak season, its increment is still difficult to drag down the spot price. However, in November, the north wood southward will focus on the "outbreak", coupled with the production line of new production capacity in the fourth quarter one after another, when the southern market thread spot supply pressure may be greater than the same period last year, spot prices seem to have been expected. Of which:

East China: the arrival of resources in Northeast and North China has increased slightly, and mainly concentrated in Shanghai, Shandong and other places, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other Yangtze markets are relatively stable. There are two main reasons: first, spot prices are unattractive. At present, the spot price of thread in East China market is still relatively low (as of today, the price of sand steel thread in Hangzhou market is about 3740 yuan / ton, and the price increase of Shagang Plant in Shanghai market is only 3680 yuan / ton). On the other hand, due to the continuous fermentation of the Wuxi viaduct incident, the local "strike hard" overload, among which the "birthplace" of East China is even more. It is reported that at present, the supply of goods in Shanghai, Hebei and Tianjin has a backlog in the port, and the shipping efficiency has been greatly reduced.

South China: since mid-October, the arrival of northern resources has increased one after another, but due to the good performance of local demand, the spot price still has the "power of the first world war". Although the snails have plunged in the past two days, the spot price has only been adjusted by about 10 yuan / ton. However, according to South China traders and northern shipping steel mills feedback, November shipments will increase significantly, spot price downside risk will be realized.

[feedback on specific research situation]

Steel mill A (northeast): demand is weakening in the northeast, so shipments to the south have increased by 20, 000 to 30, 000 tons this month.

Steel Plant B (Northeast): because it is an electric arc furnace steel mill, the cost is relatively high, to Guangzhou to ship more than 100 tons of steel, so in the short term do not intend to ship to the south.

Steel mill C (Northeast): as December will be overhauled, overhauled for 3 months, so this year is not going to ship to the south (shipments range from 20, 000 to 60, 000 in previous years), and now basically began to winter storage.

Steel mill D (North China): it is intended to start shipping to the south in the next ten days, but the current quantity has not yet been determined, the local demand is still OK.

Steel mill E (North China): the demand in the north is adequate, and the shipment is also OK, so the volume of shipment to the south has not changed much, with only a small increment. South China shipments are in the range of 70,000 tons to 80,000 tons.

Trader A (Shanghai): recently, there has been an increase in the arrival of goods, but the efficiency of short-distance transport has declined, and a lot of goods have piled up in ports, so the increment has not been clearly reflected in the market and has not had an impact on local spot goods.

Trader C (South China): recently, the arrival of resources in North and Northeast China has increased, but due to the weakening of local demand in Northeast China, the increment of its supply is relatively more obvious. It has acted as an agent for Northeast Steel Mill, and the shipment volume of steel mills will increase significantly next month, and the planned shipment growth of some steel mills will even reach 100%.

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