SMM Analysis: LME Copper Inventory Surges on “Old Tricks”?

[SMM Analysis: U.S. Restricts Critical Mineral Scrap Exports — Could Copper Scrap Be Next?]The U.S. has imposed a 100% domestic sales requirement on black mass and tungsten scrap, signaling tighter control over strategic secondary resources. Copper scrap is not yet included, but SMM expects more high-grade scrap to stay in the U.S. as local processing capacity expands, tightening global supply and supporting high scrap coefficients.

Jubilee Metals Group has received two binding offers for the outright acquisition of its Large Waste Project (LWP) in Zambia at what the company described as a substantial premium to the project’s original acquisition price. A preferred purchaser is expected to be selected before definitive transaction agreements are concluded, potentially providing Jubilee with additional capital to accelerate the development of its remaining copper portfolio in the country. The proposed disposal forms part of Jubilee’s broader strategy to reduce its exposure to higher-capital greenfield development and redirect investment toward the expansion of existing Zambian operations. The company has highlighted the Molefe Mine in particular, where it plans to develop on-site copper processing capacity as part of a lower-capital and lower-risk growth strategy. The approach is intended to make greater use of existing infrastructure while bringing additional copper production online more efficiently. Proceeds from the proposed LWP disposal, together with remaining cash from the sale of Jubilee’s South African operations and other non-core waste assets, are expected to generate total cash inflows approaching $100 million. The additional financial flexibility is expected to support accelerated investment across Jubilee’s Zambian copper operations while strengthening the company’s ability to fund its expansion plans internally. The strategic shift comes as Jubilee continues to work toward expanding its integrated copper operations in Zambia, with the company targeting approximately 25,000 tonnes per year of copper production as its operations scale up. Redirecting capital toward existing mining and processing assets could therefore support a more immediate contribution to production growth than pursuing the Large Waste Project as a standalone greenfield development. From a copper-market perspective, the proposed transaction represents a shift in capital allocation toward nearer-term production growth rather than the development of a new standalone project. By prioritising assets capable of leveraging existing mining and processing infrastructure, Jubilee is seeking to shorten development timelines, reduce execution risk and expand its integrated copper footprint in Zambia. If successfully implemented, the strategy would add to the pipeline of projects supporting Zambia’s medium-term copper supply growth.

According to SMM, the comprehensive operating rate of the copper plate, sheet and strip industry in July 2026 was 74.53%, down 0.43 percentage points MoM and up 8.91% YoY. Among them, large enterprises had an operating rate of 84.2%, medium-sized enterprises 54.75%, and small enterprises 70.82%.