In recent years, zinc prices have fluctuated largely around the supply-demand imbalance between mining and smelting. With a significant increase in zinc concentrate supply expected for this year, prices may face downward pressure as we expected at the beginning of this year. This is the second report of two, which reviews Q1 production data from major overseas zinc mines from the Asia, Oceania and the Americas, and provides updated forecasts for full-year output.

In recent years, zinc prices have fluctuated largely around the supply-demand imbalance between mining and smelting. With a significant increase in zinc concentrate supply expected for this year, prices may face downward pressure as we expected at the beginning of this year. This is the first report of two, which reviews Q1 production data from major overseas zinc mines from the EMEA region, which covers Europe, Middle East and Africa.

[SMM Analysis: Difficulties in Raw Material Procurement, Weak Downstream Demand Lead to MoM Decline in Medium-Heavy Rare Earth Production in May] In May 2025, China's production of medium-heavy rare earth oxides experienced a relatively significant MoM decline. The most critical reason for this situation was the simultaneous shortage of ion-adsorption ore from Southeast Asia and NdFeB scrap. This shortage had a direct impact on the operating rates of separation plants and scrap recycling enterprises, leading to a significant reduction in their oxide production.

[SMM Analysis: Pr-Nd Production Shrank MoM in May, Market Prices Fluctuated Rangebound] From the price trend of Pr-Nd in May, the Pr-Nd market was in a stalemate under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Supported by raw material costs and supply contraction, the overall price of Pr-Nd oxide fluctuated rangebound. However, downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and actual transactions did not see a significant increase.

Overall, some refineries completed maintenance and resumed production this week, leading to an increase in supply, particularly for medium- and high-sulphur petroleum coke. Coupled with the wait-and-see attitude of downstream enterprises in the petroleum coke market at month-end, market trading activity has weakened, and petroleum coke prices have fallen continuously. Despite the approaching holiday, downstream enterprises have not shown significant stockpiling behavior, still focusing on purchasing as needed. In general, the petroleum coke market currently lacks significant supportive factors on both the supply and demand sides, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term.

Weak supply and demand in fundamentals, short-term fluctuations in tin prices, "waiting for the wind" - macro factors may become the key to breaking the deadlock!

Overall, based on the prebaked anode export data for April 2025, although there was a general decline in export volume, there were different performances in segmented markets. Orders exported to Malaysia, Indonesia, and Bahrain decreased significantly, mainly due to aluminum smelters digesting their existing inventories, leading to a reduction in demand for new orders. However, orders for prebaked anodes exported to Germany showed an increasing trend, closely related to the recovery of the European aluminum industry. With the recovery of the European market, increased demand drove corresponding prebaked anode imports. According to SMM's survey, export orders performed well overall in 2025. One of the main reasons was the continuous addition of new capacity in the overseas aluminum market and the resumption of production by some enterprises, a trend that boosted demand for prebaked anodes. Additionally, domestic prebaked anode prices surged in Q1 2025 due to a sharp increase in raw material prices, leading to a corresponding increase in overseas order prices. However, after entering Q2, signs of weakness emerged in the raw material side of prebaked anodes, weakening the driving force behind price increases. It is expected that export order prices will also shift from rising to falling.