[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: The Most-Traded Aluminum Contract Approaches the 21,000 yuan/mt Mark, Maintaining an Upward Trend in the Short Term] Last Friday, the SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 80 yuan/mt compared to the previous day, reaching 21,280 yuan/mt, continuing its rebound trend. The SMM ADC12 price remained stable at 21,300 yuan/mt. The current tight supply of aluminum scrap remains unchanged, coupled with copper prices repeatedly hitting new highs, driving up raw material costs. Enterprises are forced to purchase at high prices to ensure order fulfillment. Due to factors such as insufficient raw material circulation, high raw material costs eroding profits, and uncertain policies in regions like Jiangxi and Anhui, industry supply has contracted. Overall demand remains resilient, with some secondary aluminum plants recently reporting an increase in orders. However, constrained by low inventories of both finished products and raw materials, enterprises are adopting more cautious order-taking strategies, providing some support to market prices. Overall, cost and supply-side support currently dominate. It is expected that ADC12 prices will continue to hold up well in the short term, with attention needed on raw material prices, inventory changes, and downstream order performance.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: SHFE Aluminum Rises After Fluctuating Higher in Night Session, Short-Term Outlook Remains Strong] On the night of October 31, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened lower, then fluctuated higher and stabilized at high levels overall. It opened at 21,360 yuan/mt, hit a high of 21,470 yuan/mt and a low of 21,355 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,415 yuan/mt, up 0.54% from the previous close. From a technical perspective, the MA moving average system showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,279 > MA10: 21,215.5 > MA20: 21,058.25 > MA60: 20,808.5), and the MACD 4-hour candlestick maintained a golden cross (DIFF: 103.23, DEA: 96.87). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel. Although prices at the night session pulled back from the intraday high, they ultimately closed at 21,415 yuan/mt, above most short-term moving averages, indicating that the current upward trend has not been technically broken. Resistance is expected in the 21,350-21,550 yuan/mt range, and support in the 20,650-20,850 yuan/mt range.

According to SMM statistics, as of October 31, 2025, the domestic days of inventories at aluminum rod plants were 7.6 days, an increase of 0.57 days WoW. Aluminum rod inventory continued to show a buildup trend, and the market oversupply situation saw no significant improvement. In terms of inventory ratio, the domestic in-factory inventory ratio for aluminum rod plants recorded 74.12%, up 4.04% WoW, and the pressure from inventory accumulation remained unrelieved.

Brief Comment: So far, an aluminum enterprise in Shandong has announced the November 2025 prebaked anode tender benchmark price, which rose by 222 yuan/mt MoM. Simultaneously, a major domestic prebaked anode sales company increased its sales price by 251 yuan/mt MoM. According to SMM data, as of October 31, China's comprehensive cost for prebaked anode increased to 5,125 yuan/mt, up 3.31% from September 30. The current raw material market is performing well, providing some support for prebaked anode prices. Particularly for petroleum coke, downstream demand is generally favorable, purchasing enthusiasm in the carbon industry is moderate, and demand from the anode material market for petroleum coke persists. Considering various factors, the price center for petroleum coke in November is expected to move higher. Against this backdrop, prebaked anode prices, directly supported by rising raw material costs, are expected to continue their upward trend. 

Overall, the petroleum coke market currently shows a pattern of tightening supply and increasing demand. At the month-end to early-month period, restocking needs for some enterprises became prominent. Coupled with expectations of higher prebaked anode prices in November boosting purchasing enthusiasm, SMM expects upward momentum for petroleum coke prices to persist in the short term.