【SMM Scrap Aluminium Market Analysis】The European Union (EU) is one of the key exporters of scrap metals such as aluminium and copper globally. Amidst the ever-changing global political and economic market, the European market has been slowly inching towards a relatively careful approach towards their exports of scrap metal, which are key materials for the development of local industries, especially towards low carbon emission goals. As the scrap metals were not included in the tariffs outlined in Section 232, they are included under the general tariffs of 15% for EU exports to the US. Under this circumstance, European Aluminium acted as one of the biggest voices of the EU aluminium industries, actively highlighting how the USA’s tariffs make it an unfairly favourable export destination. This might lead into, not only the EU, but the global flow of scrap metal being preferentially exported to the US, leading to a larger shortage of metal scrap when markets are already struggling to fulfill their domestic demand for scrap as a raw material, creating pressure for local businesses and industries to stay afloat.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Social Inventory of Aluminum Alloy Continues Buildup Pace, Focus on Warrant Registration Next Week] Overall, influenced by the US Fed's interest rate cut realization, macro sentiment was under pressure, while fundamentals saw a tug-of-war between longs and shorts: cost rigidity and pre-holiday stockpiling demand provided support, but weak demand recovery and inventory buildup risks posed constraints. ADC12 prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term. Subsequent attention should be closely paid to raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, changes in registered warrants, and policy implementation.

Futures side, in the previous trading day's night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2511 contract opened at 20,860 yuan/mt, with the highest price at 20,860 yuan/mt and the lowest at 20,780 yuan/mt, closing at 20,800 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt or 0.07% from the previous close.

[SMM Analysis]Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Fell During the Week, Warrant Generation Set to Begin May Introduce New Market Variables

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Interest Rate Cut Meets Expectations but Powell's Hawkish Stance; Strong Aluminum Market Fundamentals Seek Support]

Futures side, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2511 contract opened at 20,890 yuan/mt in the previous trading day's night session, with the highest price at 20,890 yuan/mt, the lowest at 20,715 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,750 yuan/mt, down 190 yuan/mt or 0.91% from the previous close.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: US Fed Cut Interest Rate by 25 bps, Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Fell Overnight] On the macro front, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, fueling market risk-off sentiment and causing overnight futures to decline. Fundamentals side, current ADC12 prices are strongly supported by costs, coupled with downstream stocking demand ahead of the National Day holiday. Short-term prices are expected to hover at highs. Close attention should be paid going forward to raw material supply conditions, the pace of demand recovery, and potential market impacts from policy developments.