[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: The Most-Traded Aluminum Contract Approaches the 21,000 yuan/mt Mark, Maintaining an Upward Trend in the Short Term] Last Friday, the SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 80 yuan/mt compared to the previous day, reaching 21,280 yuan/mt, continuing its rebound trend. The SMM ADC12 price remained stable at 21,300 yuan/mt. The current tight supply of aluminum scrap remains unchanged, coupled with copper prices repeatedly hitting new highs, driving up raw material costs. Enterprises are forced to purchase at high prices to ensure order fulfillment. Due to factors such as insufficient raw material circulation, high raw material costs eroding profits, and uncertain policies in regions like Jiangxi and Anhui, industry supply has contracted. Overall demand remains resilient, with some secondary aluminum plants recently reporting an increase in orders. However, constrained by low inventories of both finished products and raw materials, enterprises are adopting more cautious order-taking strategies, providing some support to market prices. Overall, cost and supply-side support currently dominate. It is expected that ADC12 prices will continue to hold up well in the short term, with attention needed on raw material prices, inventory changes, and downstream order performance.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: SHFE Aluminum Rises After Fluctuating Higher in Night Session, Short-Term Outlook Remains Strong] On the night of October 31, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened lower, then fluctuated higher and stabilized at high levels overall. It opened at 21,360 yuan/mt, hit a high of 21,470 yuan/mt and a low of 21,355 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,415 yuan/mt, up 0.54% from the previous close. From a technical perspective, the MA moving average system showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,279 > MA10: 21,215.5 > MA20: 21,058.25 > MA60: 20,808.5), and the MACD 4-hour candlestick maintained a golden cross (DIFF: 103.23, DEA: 96.87). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel. Although prices at the night session pulled back from the intraday high, they ultimately closed at 21,415 yuan/mt, above most short-term moving averages, indicating that the current upward trend has not been technically broken. Resistance is expected in the 21,350-21,550 yuan/mt range, and support in the 20,650-20,850 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Limited Fundamental Drivers for Aluminum Prices, Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate Amid Macro Support] During the night session on October 30, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,200 yuan/mt, reaching a highest price of 21,275 yuan/mt and a lowest price of 21,160 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 21,265 yuan/mt, up 0.09%. The night session opened lower but fluctuated higher, with the trading center slightly declining yet remaining at elevated levels. From a technical perspective, the MA moving averages continued to exhibit a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,273.00 > MA10: 21,259.00 > MA20: 21,138.50 > MA60: 20,955.25), while the MACD 4-hour K-line showed some variation in the red bars, maintaining a golden cross state (DIFF: 96.72, DEA: 95.15). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel. Considering recent highs and lows (low: 20,640, high: around 21,365), resistance is expected in the 21,350-21,550 range, with support in the 20,650-20,850 range.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Copper, Silicon, and Other Auxiliary Material Prices Continue to Rise, ADC12 Cost Support Remains Strong] Affected by tight supply, aluminum scrap, especially aluminum tense scrap prices, continue to climb. At the same time, copper prices repeatedly hit new highs, coupled with rising silicon prices, further driving up raw material costs for secondary aluminum plants. Overall, the current market is influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, but cost and supply-side support dominate. ADC12 prices are expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the short term, with attention needed on raw material prices, inventory changes, and downstream order performance.

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas recorded 619,000 mt this Thursday, up 1,000 mt WoW, but destocking totaled 31,000 mt from the post-holiday high. On a YoY basis, domestic aluminum ingot inventory lost its favorable position of being at the lowest level in nearly three years for the same period, increasing by 22,000 mt compared to the same period last year. By region, among the major consumption areas, starting with Wuxi...

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Insufficient Fundamental Drivers in the Aluminum Market Limit Upside Potential for Aluminum Prices]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: US Fed Interest Rate Cut Implemented, Constraints on Aluminum Price Fluctuating at Highs Become Apparent] During the night session on October 29, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,290 yuan/mt, reached a highest price of 21,360 yuan/mt and a lowest price of 21,245 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 21,315 yuan/mt, up 0.09%, showing a pattern of fluctuation at highs with the trading center continuing to shift upward. From a technical perspective, the MA moving averages maintained a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,250.00 > MA10: 21,251.00 > MA20: 21,115.75 > MA60: 20,938.58), while the MACD 4-hour candlestick level saw some change in the red column, maintaining a golden cross state (DIFF: 104.77, DEA: 93.45). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel; considering recent highs and lows (low around 20,640, high around 21,365), the resistance level is expected to be in the range of 21,350-21,550, and the support level in the range of 20,650-20,850.