[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Policy Direction Combined with Low Inventory Supports Aluminum Prices, Potential Trade Friction Risks Limit Upside Room] In summary, the positive macro policy direction and the reality of continuously declining low inventory have jointly built strong support below aluminum prices, boosting market sentiment. However, slow growth on the supply side and potential trade friction risks also limit the pace of rapid price increases. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate upward in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: SHFE Aluminum Prices Pull Back, Alloy Enterprises Actively Follow Suit] Spot side, yesterday SMM A00 aluminum spot prices rose 120 yuan/mt to 21,890 yuan/mt, while ADC12 prices rebounded 100 yuan/mt to 21,600 yuan/mt, recovering the previous day's losses. This week, aluminum prices saw their first rebound, to which the secondary aluminum market responded actively, with manufacturers generally raising offers by 100-200 yuan/mt. Raw material side, although aluminum scrap prices followed the decline in aluminum prices, leading to a slight weakening in cost support, they remained at a relatively high level amid tight supply. Demand side, performance showed a marginally weakening trend, and coupled with sharp fluctuations in aluminum prices, downstream enterprises' purchase willingness turned cautious, with market trading activity moderate. Considering the supply-demand pattern and cost factors, ADC12 aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue a sideways movement in the near term.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Dovish Macro Boost and Low Inventory Support SHFE Aluminum to Trade in a Narrow Range in the Short Term] On the macro front, the US Fed cut interest rates for the third time this year as expected and launched bond purchases in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time. Powell's remarks were more dovish than expected, leading to a decline in the US dollar and a rebound in base metals, with short-term macro sentiment turning positive.

[ SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Face Reality Check Against Off-Season Pressures; Aluminum Price Upside Momentum Limited at High Levels ] In summary, strong macro expectations have built a solid bottom support for aluminum prices, but seasonal fundamental pressures are gradually emerging. Amid the interplay of these factors, the upside room for aluminum prices is constrained by weakening spot aluminum fundamentals and cautious downstream sentiment. Risks of a pullback from elevated levels warrant caution.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Weaker Demand Suppresses Spot Trading, Alloy Prices Remain in the Doldrums] Spot side, today SMM A00 aluminum spot prices fell 110 yuan/mt to 21,770 yuan/mt, and ADC12 prices dropped 100 yuan/mt to 21,500 yuan/mt. Driven by the pullback from high aluminum prices, cost support from aluminum scrap continued to weaken, with overall pressure shifting downward, and the spot market showed a pattern of being in the doldrums. Demand side, current demand showed signs of weakening, and aluminum futures fell sharply this week, causing downstream enterprises' wait-and-see sentiment to heat up again, with market trading activity moderate. Considering supply-demand and cost side impacts, ADC12 aluminum alloy prices were expected to continue a fluctuating trend in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Strong Macro Expectations Compete with Weak Fundamentals, Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate at Highs ] The macro front shows a significantly bullish atmosphere, with market sentiment high for the US Fed to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time in December. Statements from the White House and President Trump further reinforce expectations of future monetary policy easing, continuously providing liquidity premium support and inflation expectations benefits for non-ferrous metals. However, pressure from the reality of marginally weakening fundamentals is becoming increasingly clear. On the fundamentals side, this year's Chinese New Year break falls relatively late, limiting the extent of weakening aluminum demand in December. The release of new aluminum capacity and production still requires some time, resulting in limited production growth in December. Although inventory recorded a slight decrease, this was mainly due to transit backlogs caused by hindered transportation in the Xinjiang region, rather than strong actual consumption in demand areas.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Primary Aluminum Prices Plunge, Aluminum Alloy Market Follows Suit] Spot side, yesterday SMM A00 aluminum spot prices fell 40 yuan/mt to 21,880 yuan/mt, while ADC12 prices held steady at 21,600 yuan/mt. Driven by the sharp correction in aluminum prices, cost support from aluminum scrap continued to weaken, with overall pressure shifting downward, and the spot market remained in the doldrums. Demand side, aluminum futures plummeted this week, reigniting downstream enterprises' wait-and-see sentiment, and market trading activity was moderate. Considering supply-demand dynamics and cost-side factors, ADC12 aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue fluctuating weakly in the short term.