[SMM Analysis]Prices of Secondary Aluminum Alloy Stop Falling and Stabilize, Supported by Both Costs and Demand

Conclusion: The supply-demand imbalance has accumulated to a relatively limited extent, with relatively small room for further deterioration MoM from November. In the short term, focus on the most-traded hot-rolled coil futures contract at 3,230–3,330. In December, coupled with rising macro expectations, steel prices may have room to rise before the meeting, but the upside is likely to be limited, mainly due to persistent destocking pressure for sheets & plates and relatively weak sales performance in the market, which may also constrain a smooth price increase.

According to data compiled by SMM from the General Administration of Customs, China's cumulative steel exports from January to October 2025 totaled 109.653 million mt, up 13.43% YoY. The Philippines recorded the largest cumulative YoY increase, up 1.424 million mt (a 30.12% growth).

Iron ore futures continued their strong, volatile trend today. The main contract I2601 closed at 799.5, up 0.44% from the previous trading day. Traders actively offloaded positions, while steel mills adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach, leading to a decline in procurement interest.

According to SMM assessment, the 300 million tonnes crude steel capacity target set by India's "National Steel Policy (2017)" is expected to be only about 80% achieved, resulting in actual capacity of approximately 240 million tonnes by 2030. Against this backdrop, if India's steel consumption maintains a 7% average annual growth rate, while crude steel production, constrained by the pace of capacity realization, achieves only about a 5% growth rate, and considering an 85% capacity utilization rate, India's supply-demand gap will continue to widen, with the net import volume projected to reach 25.5 million tonnes by 2030. This trend indicates that the pace of India's steel capacity expansion will consistently struggle to match the robust growth of its domestic demand. Even during the period of concentrated capacity commissioning, its vast domestic market will still need to rely on imports to bridge the supply gap. Simultaneously, in the high-end steel sector, due to gaps in technological accumulation and process levels, India's structural dependence on high-value-added steel will persist long-term, forming a "new normal" of "continuously expanding total gap and difficult-to-improve high-end dependence."

In October 2025, China's aluminum wheel exports reached 78,800 tons, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 2.59% but a month-on-month decline of 8.23%, reflecting an ongoing downward adjustment in overseas market demand.

As of November 25, the operating rate of 50 electric furnace steel mills producing building materials nationwide was 38.36%, up 1.44% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 40.44%, up 1.47% WoW; the daily average production of building materials was 90,100 mt, up 3,300 mt WoW.