[SMM Analysis] In Q4 2025, the lithium battery industry chain underwent a deep transition from "destocking and recovery" to "sentiment-driven fluctuations." Lithium ore prices experienced wild swings in line with lithium carbonate futures and spot movements. In November, driven by limit-up moves in futures, prices entered an upward trend. By month-end December, suppliers, supported by stockpiling costs, continued to hold prices firm with strong sentiment. The lithium chemicals market entered a phase of significant destocking, underpinned by robust demand from the electric vehicle and ESS sectors. The recycling market for spent batteries saw a tug-of-war between losses and following price increases, while the discount coefficient for ternary black mass rose significantly, influenced by cobalt and lithium prices. Looking ahead to Q1 2026, the market is expected to shift from sentiment-driven volatility back to rationality, seeking a new equilibrium amid long-term contract negotiations, capacity release, and seasonal demand pullback.