September 12: North China ports: Australian lumps at 40.3-40.8 yuan/mtu, up 0.50% WoW; South African semi-carbonate at 34-34.5 yuan/mtu, down 0.58% WoW; Gabonese at 39.3-39.9 yuan/mtu, up 0.76% WoW; South African high-iron at 29.4-29.9 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron at 35.3-35.8 yuan/mtu, up 0.57% WoW. South China ports: Australian lumps at 39.8-40.5 yuan/mtu, up 0.50% WoW; South African semi-carbonate at 36.1-36.6 yuan/mtu, down 0.55% WoW; Gabonese at 39.7-40.2 yuan/mtu, up 0.76% WoW; South African high-iron at 30.5-31 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron at 36.7-37.4 yuan/mtu, up 0.54% WoW. Overall, current port arrivals of manganese ore decreased slightly, and downstream users are about to start a new round of restocking before the National Day holiday. Miners' offers remain firm, and ore prices edged up. The future trend of manganese ore prices still depends on downstream users' actual acceptance of current price levels.

Cost Push from LCO May Dominate the Future Market

This week, nickel sulphate prices remained basically flat, while cobalt sulphate prices continued to rise, and prices of salt products such as lithium carbonate continued to decline. Despite the sustained increase in cobalt salt prices, the nickel and cobalt coefficients for ternary and LCO black mass remained basically flat WoW, while the lithium coefficient followed the decline in lithium carbonate prices. The price per % lithium for LFP black mass continued to decrease this week. Taking LFP pole piece black mass as an example, the current price range is 2,600–2,800 yuan/mtu, down approximately 100 yuan/mtu WoW. For ternary black mass, the nickel and cobalt coefficient for ternary pole piece black mass currently stands at 73–75%, flat WoW, while the lithium coefficient is 68–71%, also basically unchanged from the previous week. For LCO black mass, the cobalt coefficient increased by 1 percentage point this week, while the lithium coefficient decreased by 2 percentage points. On the LFP hydrometallurgy side, most LFP battery hydrometallurgy recycling plants maintained toll processing. With the decline in lithium carbonate prices this week, the profit margin for externally purchasing LFP black mass to produce lithium chemicals gradually shifted from hovering around the breakeven point at the end of August to approximately -5% to -8%. As a result, some lithium chemical recycling enterprises that resumed production in mid-August adopted a cautious attitude toward purchasing raw materials such as black mass, and market sentiment was mediocre compared to the previous week.

Co3O4: Price Transmission Lags, Rise Expectations Strengthen

Cobalt Chloride: Cost-Driven Price Breakthrough

This week, domestic spot prices of refined cobalt fluctuated upward, but overall market trading activity saw limited changes compared to last week. Supply side, major smelters maintained long-term contract supplies, while traders quoted prices following futures movements. Demand side, downstream enterprises showed low acceptance of the current high cobalt prices, with procurement primarily driven by rigid demand, leading to sluggish actual market transactions. The price increase of refined cobalt this week was mainly driven by the continuous rise in prices of cobalt intermediate products and cobalt salts. However, its relatively high inventory levels and weak demand continued to exert some suppression on the price uptrend. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the price spread between refined cobalt and cobalt salts, particularly monitoring when refined cobalt might be reverse-processed into cobalt salts.

Market data this week showed that on the supply side, influenced by fluctuations in lithium carbonate and cathode material prices, prices of new battery cells were the first to rise. Meanwhile, with the arrival of the September-October peak season for auto sales, the inventory-to-sales ratio of enterprise battery cells declined, and production increased simultaneously. This trend further extended to the secondary and recycling sectors. Previously, the continuous decline in lithium carbonate prices had strengthened enterprises' reluctance to budge on prices, with some hoarding goods. Currently, as demand in the secondary and recycling markets remains stable, some popular models in the market have ended up in a situation where prices are quoted but no actual transactions occur.