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Indonesia's ESDM Announces New Nickel Ore HPM Benchmark Price — In-Depth Analysis of Impact on Nickel Prices
Jakarta, April 14, 2026 – Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, revising the calculation formula for the Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM). The regulation will officially take effect on April 15, 2026, marking a significant shift in resource valuation policy for Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. The new decree revised the previous Decree No. 268.K/2025, with core changes aimed at reflecting the true commercial value of nickel ore and its associated minerals: 1. Adjustment of the Correction Factor (CF): · The correction factor for 1.6% grade nickel ore was significantly raised from the original 17% to 30%. · For every 0.1% increase or decrease in nickel grade, the correction factor will be adjusted inversely by 1%. 2. Inclusion of Associated Mineral Value: · The new formula for the first time explicitly incorporated associated minerals such as cobalt (Co), iron (Fe), and chromium (Cr) into the HPM calculation. · Cobalt: Included when content >= 0.05%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Iron: Included when content <= 35%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Chromium: The correction factor set at 10%. 3. New Pricing Formula: HPM Nickel Ore = [(Nickel HMA * %Ni * CF) + (Cobalt HMA * %Co * CF) + (Iron HMA * %Fe * CF * 100) + (Chromium HMA * %Cr * CF * 100)] * (1-MC) (Note: MC refers to moisture content) Assumptions: · Average grade: moisture content 35-40%, cobalt content 0.07% (HPAL ore), iron content 25% (saprolite ore), chromium content 3%. Based on SMM's estimates, HPM prices have the most obvious room for upward movement. · Here, HPAL ore refers to nickel ore with a grade of 1.3% and below, while saprolite ore refers to nickel ore with a grade above 1.3%.Since HPAL ore has a higher cobalt grade and iron content generally above 35%, the HPM formula for HPAL ore here only considers nickel, cobalt, and chromium, with iron not priced in. · Since saprolite ore has a lower cobalt grade and iron content generally below 35%, the HPM formula for saprolite ore here only considers nickel, iron, and chromium, with cobalt not priced in. Note: This is only a scenario assumption based on publicly available information and does not constitute actual market action advice. Please refer to actual conditions. Driven by the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the benchmark price, the nickel ore benchmark price center shifted significantly upward, providing a higher pricing anchor for mine-side sales. Overall, the CF (adjustment coefficient) for 1.6% grade nickel ore increased from 17% to 30%, driving a significant rise in the benchmark price, reflecting a policy and market reassessment of the value of medium-to-high-grade ore. As the CF increased, the linkage between ore prices and nickel content further strengthened, and price elasticity amplified accordingly. On the other hand, under the current pricing system, by-product value has been fully incorporated into consideration. In particular, the cobalt pricing mechanism provided significant support for low-grade ore (such as limonite). Benefiting from the increase in cobalt prices and its recovery value, the economics of limonite improved notably, and its price performance showed a more prominent upward trend compared to the past, gradually changing the market's traditional perception of it as a "low-value resource." Based on SMM prices, Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.2% grade (delivered price) averaged $30.5/wmt, far below the new HPM benchmark price of $40.18/wmt. The CIF price of 1.2% grade HPAL nickel ore may subsequently rise to $48.18 (40.18+8)/wmt. Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.5% grade (delivered price) averaged $70.7/wmt, above the new HPM benchmark price of $57.13/wmt, so theoretically absolute price fluctuations would not be as drastic. Assuming the tax cost increase driven by the HPM benchmark price rise is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute price of saprolite nickel ore may rise to $72.47/wmt after the new HPM benchmark price takes effect. **MHP** According to SMM estimates, taking 1.2% grade nickel ore as an example, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, the new nickel ore HPM is expected to be raised to $40.18/wmt, compared with the previous nickel ore HPM of $16/wmt. Currently, SMM's latest Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore 1.2% (port arrival price) average price is $30.5/wmt, lower than the new HPM. Assuming the HPM benchmark price serves as the minimum price floor for mines, after factoring in freight costs, the selling price of 1.2% grade HPAL ore after April 15 would be $48.18/wmt. Based on this estimate, the cost of producing MHP from externally purchased HPAL ore (after cobalt credit) will rise to approximately $17,760/mt Ni, an increase of approximately $2,600/mt Ni. **NPI** According to SMM estimates, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, taking 1.5% grade nickel ore price as an example, the nickel ore HPM price under the old formula was $26.66/wmt, while the nickel ore HPM price calculated under the new formula is $57.13/wmt, still lower than the current 1.5% Indonesia's local port arrivals under domestic trade price of $70.7/wmt. Assuming the tax cost increase resulting from the HPM price hike is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute nickel ore price is forecast to rise to approximately $72.47/wmt after the new policy is implemented. Based on this estimate, this adjustment will push the full cost of NPI up to $15,741.51/mt Ni, an increase of $570.48/mt Ni from the current level, representing a rise of approximately 3.76%, which is expected to provide further upward support for NPI prices. **Refined Nickel** On the basis of the above-mentioned increases in MHP and high-grade nickel matte raw material costs, the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated high-grade nickel matte is estimated at approximately $21,773/mt Ni, an increase of $622/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment; the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) is estimated at approximately $20,560/mt Ni, an increase of $2,652/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment. In addition, based on the LME spot settlement price on April 14 and the nickel intermediate product transaction coefficients (91.5% for MHP and 92.5% for high-grade nickel matte), the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased high-grade nickel matte is $18,705/mt Ni, and the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased MHP is $19,378/mt Ni. Both costs are higher than the current LME nickel prices, indicating relatively strong cost support. In summary, Indonesia's ESDM reform of the HPM benchmark price formula represents a systematic restructuring of the pricing system, upgrading nickel ore pricing from "single nickel element pricing" to "nickel + cobalt + iron + chromium multi-element comprehensive pricing," reshaping the nickel ore cost basis from multiple dimensions. In the short term, the policy landing beyond expectations has already driven nickel prices to rise significantly, with market sentiment leaning bullish; however, medium and long-term impacts depend on cost pass-through efficiency, the pace of high inventory digestion, and downstream demand absorption capacity. Going forward, close attention is still needed on the actual implementation by Indonesian mine enterprises, smelter procurement price negotiation outcomes, and the substantive magnitude of price increases for intermediate products such as MHP and NPI. Risk warning: According to ESDM Ministerial Decree NO.144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, the benchmark ore price (HPM) is the minimum selling price for metal mineral sales. If metal minerals are sold below the HPM price, the HPM must still be used as the basis for calculating tax obligations and as the benchmark price for levying production fees (royalties). Therefore, the above costs are calculated based on the assumption that the wet-process ore selling price is no lower than the new HPM benchmark price. The resulting integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) production cost of refined nickel is relatively high. However, the actual selling price of nickel ore will need to be negotiated between mines and smelters, and there is a possibility that the final transaction price may be lower than the new HPM benchmark price.
Apr 14, 2026 20:08
Indonesia's ESDM Announces New Nickel Ore HPM Benchmark Price — In-Depth Analysis of Impact on Nickel Prices
Expert Insights: Opportunities & Challenges Unveiled at CLNB 2026 Solid-State Battery Conference
Expert Insights: Opportunities & Challenges Unveiled at CLNB 2026 Solid-State Battery Conference
The CLNB 2026 Solid-State Battery Conference was held in Suzhou in April, where experts reached a consensus that 2026-2030 will be a critical period for industrialisation. The conference focused on breakthroughs in technology pathways such as oxide and sulphide, elaborating on progress in mass production of lithium sulphide, innovations in high-specific-energy cathodes, and upgrades in equipment and processes.
Apr 13, 2026 14:37
Why Fuels SHFE Copper to Break Through 100,000 yuan/mt Mark Again? 【SMM Analysis】
Why Fuels SHFE Copper to Break Through 100,000 yuan/mt Mark Again? 【SMM Analysis】
Recently, the center of copper prices continued to shift upward. The most-traded SHFE copper contract steadily climbed after hitting a periodic low of 91,500 yuan/mt on March 23, 2026, reaching a high of 103,130 yuan/mt as of April 15, representing a gain of 12.71% from low to high, with the latest closing price at 102,090 yuan/mt. The latest LME copper price stood at $13,262.5/mt. The interaction between macro sentiment and fundamentals jointly drove the market to hold up well. This round of copper price strength was not dominated by a single factor, but rather the result of a resonance of multiple factors including geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, inventory changes, and seasonal consumption patterns. Regarding the core driving logic behind the current copper price strength, SMM will provide a detailed analysis from three dimensions: the contraction of SX-EW copper supply outside China, the macro perspective on the US dollar and geopolitical developments, and China's copper inventories and supply-demand pattern. The details are as follows: （I) Sulphuric Acid Export Restriction Policies Strengthened Expectations for SX-EW Copper Production Cuts, and Supply Contraction Supported Copper Prices Sulphuric acid prices have been rising continuously since March, mainly due to the ongoing escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 50% of the world's seaborne sulphur volume, has been disrupted, leading to an overall tightening of global sulphur supply. In China's sulphuric acid production, approximately 40% comes from sulphur-based acid production and 40% from smelting acid. China is highly dependent on sulphur imports, and the tightness in raw material supply has provided certain support for domestic sulphuric acid prices. The DRC is the world's second-largest copper-producing country, with production highly dependent on sulphuric acid. According to SMM, producing 1 mt of copper cathode locally requires 2–6 mt of sulphuric acid. Based on an average of 4 mt, annual sulphuric acid consumption is approximately 10 million mt, of which more than half relies on imports from the Middle East. The Middle East is both a critical global energy transportation route and a core hub for sulphur trade. The current US-Iran conflict has lasted 46 days, and local smelter sulphuric acid inventory is at low levels. Coupled with China, as a major global sulphuric acid exporter, imposing export restrictions, ex-China sulphuric acid supply has tightened further. The sulphuric acid shortage has constrained SX-EW copper output to a certain extent, creating expectations of a contraction in global copper cathode supply and providing clear bullish support for copper prices. According to SMM, SX-EW copper production in the DRC and Zambia has been gradually suffering losses recently, especially at some smaller smelters. The originally projected SMM global copper cathode balance surplus for 2026 is expected to slow down YoY. Expectations of copper cathode supply losses have strengthened, and the market is expected to gradually shift from a loose balance to a tight balance. The tightening supply-side expectations are set to provide support for copper prices. II. Easing geopolitical tensions coupled with inflation pullback push the US dollar index lower, providing support for copper prices Earlier, the escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to push up energy prices, increasing inflationary pressures. Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled somewhat, and the market gradually priced in unchanged interest rates for the full year. Recently, signs of easing emerged in the geopolitical conflict. Trump stated that the US and Iran are expected to hold talks in Pakistan within the next two days. Pakistan called for a 45-day ceasefire extension, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations, with only the time and location yet to be determined. According to sources familiar with the matter, Iran is considering temporarily suspending shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz to create a favorable atmosphere for negotiations, and the US military has no plan to attack Iranian oil tankers. On April 14, Trump publicly stated that the military campaign against Iran was nearing its end, with positive signals being gradually released, The pullback in crude oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar index provided some support for copper prices. Meanwhile, the pullback in oil prices eased inflationary pressures, leaving room for subsequent interest rate cuts, and sentiment improved somewhat. III. Social Inventory Declined for Five Consecutive Weeks; Combined with Peak Consumption Season and Maintenance Cycle, Tight Supply-Demand Conditions Supported Copper Prices After the Lantern Festival, copper prices gradually pulled back, downstream consumption recovered somewhat, and SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China continued to destock from mid-March. Recently, copper prices rebounded somewhat, downstream purchasing became more cautious, and the destocking pace slowed down. As of April 13, SMM social copper inventories in major regions across China had decreased from 578,900 mt on March 9, 2026 to 299,800 mt, maintaining destocking for five consecutive weeks. China is currently entering the traditional peak consumption season. Copper scrap policies still carry certain uncertainties, and the overall operating rate of scrap utilization enterprises remains relatively low, providing some support for copper cathode rod consumption. Meanwhile, global smelters are entering a concentrated maintenance period in Q2, further tightening the supply side. The continued decline in inventory, combined with a tight supply-demand pattern, is providing some support for copper prices. Overall, the macro front and fundamentals are currently forming a degree of resonance, providing relatively positive support for copper prices. From a macro perspective, geopolitical conflicts showed signs of easing, the US dollar index pulled back somewhat, and earlier inflationary pressures were alleviated to some extent. On the fundamentals side, tightening sulphuric acid supply constrained SX-EW copper output outside China, SMM China social inventory continued to decline, and combined with relatively strong domestic fundamentals, the supply-demand pattern showed a tightening trend. However, as copper prices rebounded above 100,000 yuan/mt, downstream acceptance weakened somewhat, and recent purchase willingness also turned slightly cautious. Going forward, it is worth watching whether actual demand performance during the traditional peak season can meet expectations against the backdrop of high copper prices.
Apr 15, 2026 18:29
【SMM Analysis】War Devastates Iran's Steel Industry: Core Mills Attacked, 14Mt of Crude Steel Capacity at Risk
【SMM Analysis】War Devastates Iran's Steel Industry: Core Mills Attacked, 14Mt of Crude Steel Capacity at Risk
War damage to Iran’s key steel mills threatens ~14 Mt of capacity, sharply reducing crude steel output and exportable supply. While domestic demand remains relatively stable, energy shortages and logistics disruptions amplify losses, tightening regional supply, supporting semi-finished steel prices, and reshaping trade flows.
Apr 13, 2026 17:36
Indonesia Revises Bauxite Pricing, Lowering Benchmark by ~4% with New Quality and Moisture Adjustments
Indonesia Revises Bauxite Pricing, Lowering Benchmark by ~4% with New Quality and Moisture Adjustments
The 2026 revision improves transparency through moisture and silica adjustments, but Indonesia’s bauxite HPM remains structurally above domestic transaction levels, reinforcing its role as a fiscal reference price rather than a true market-clearing mechanism.
Apr 14, 2026 12:01
Morgan Stanley questions gold’s safe-haven role, backs another metal
Gold’s traditional role as a portfolio shelter is coming under closer scrutiny, according to Morgan Stanley, which argues the metal’s recent price action has been more mixed than investors typically expect from a classic haven.
Apr 16, 2026 13:26
Gold poised for a comeback? Analysts see the precious metal back above $5,000 by year-end!
The gold price is currently in a field of tension that appears contradictory at first glance:
Apr 16, 2026 11:53

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Indonesia's ESDM Announces New Nickel Ore HPM Benchmark Price — In-Depth Analysis of Impact on Nickel Prices
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Jakarta, April 14, 2026 – Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, revising the calculation formula for the Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM). The regulation will officially take effect on April 15, 2026, marking a significant shift in resource valuation policy for Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. The new decree revised the previous Decree No. 268.K/2025, with core changes aimed at reflecting the true commercial value of nickel ore and its associated minerals: 1. Adjustment of the Correction Factor (CF): · The correction factor for 1.6% grade nickel ore was significantly raised from the original 17% to 30%. · For every 0.1% increase or decrease in nickel grade, the correction factor will be adjusted inversely by 1%. 2. Inclusion of Associated Mineral Value: · The new formula for the first time explicitly incorporated associated minerals such as cobalt (Co), iron (Fe), and chromium (Cr) into the HPM calculation. · Cobalt: Included when content >= 0.05%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Iron: Included when content <= 35%, with the correction factor (CF) set at 30%. · Chromium: The correction factor set at 10%. 3. New Pricing Formula: HPM Nickel Ore = [(Nickel HMA * %Ni * CF) + (Cobalt HMA * %Co * CF) + (Iron HMA * %Fe * CF * 100) + (Chromium HMA * %Cr * CF * 100)] * (1-MC) (Note: MC refers to moisture content) Assumptions: · Average grade: moisture content 35-40%, cobalt content 0.07% (HPAL ore), iron content 25% (saprolite ore), chromium content 3%. Based on SMM's estimates, HPM prices have the most obvious room for upward movement. · Here, HPAL ore refers to nickel ore with a grade of 1.3% and below, while saprolite ore refers to nickel ore with a grade above 1.3%.Since HPAL ore has a higher cobalt grade and iron content generally above 35%, the HPM formula for HPAL ore here only considers nickel, cobalt, and chromium, with iron not priced in. · Since saprolite ore has a lower cobalt grade and iron content generally below 35%, the HPM formula for saprolite ore here only considers nickel, iron, and chromium, with cobalt not priced in. Note: This is only a scenario assumption based on publicly available information and does not constitute actual market action advice. Please refer to actual conditions. Driven by the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the benchmark price, the nickel ore benchmark price center shifted significantly upward, providing a higher pricing anchor for mine-side sales. Overall, the CF (adjustment coefficient) for 1.6% grade nickel ore increased from 17% to 30%, driving a significant rise in the benchmark price, reflecting a policy and market reassessment of the value of medium-to-high-grade ore. As the CF increased, the linkage between ore prices and nickel content further strengthened, and price elasticity amplified accordingly. On the other hand, under the current pricing system, by-product value has been fully incorporated into consideration. In particular, the cobalt pricing mechanism provided significant support for low-grade ore (such as limonite). Benefiting from the increase in cobalt prices and its recovery value, the economics of limonite improved notably, and its price performance showed a more prominent upward trend compared to the past, gradually changing the market's traditional perception of it as a "low-value resource." Based on SMM prices, Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.2% grade (delivered price) averaged $30.5/wmt, far below the new HPM benchmark price of $40.18/wmt. The CIF price of 1.2% grade HPAL nickel ore may subsequently rise to $48.18 (40.18+8)/wmt. Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore at 1.5% grade (delivered price) averaged $70.7/wmt, above the new HPM benchmark price of $57.13/wmt, so theoretically absolute price fluctuations would not be as drastic. Assuming the tax cost increase driven by the HPM benchmark price rise is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute price of saprolite nickel ore may rise to $72.47/wmt after the new HPM benchmark price takes effect. **MHP** According to SMM estimates, taking 1.2% grade nickel ore as an example, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, the new nickel ore HPM is expected to be raised to $40.18/wmt, compared with the previous nickel ore HPM of $16/wmt. Currently, SMM's latest Indonesia's local laterite nickel ore 1.2% (port arrival price) average price is $30.5/wmt, lower than the new HPM. Assuming the HPM benchmark price serves as the minimum price floor for mines, after factoring in freight costs, the selling price of 1.2% grade HPAL ore after April 15 would be $48.18/wmt. Based on this estimate, the cost of producing MHP from externally purchased HPAL ore (after cobalt credit) will rise to approximately $17,760/mt Ni, an increase of approximately $2,600/mt Ni. **NPI** According to SMM estimates, based on the benchmark price as of April 1, taking 1.5% grade nickel ore price as an example, the nickel ore HPM price under the old formula was $26.66/wmt, while the nickel ore HPM price calculated under the new formula is $57.13/wmt, still lower than the current 1.5% Indonesia's local port arrivals under domestic trade price of $70.7/wmt. Assuming the tax cost increase resulting from the HPM price hike is fully passed through to downstream, the absolute nickel ore price is forecast to rise to approximately $72.47/wmt after the new policy is implemented. Based on this estimate, this adjustment will push the full cost of NPI up to $15,741.51/mt Ni, an increase of $570.48/mt Ni from the current level, representing a rise of approximately 3.76%, which is expected to provide further upward support for NPI prices. **Refined Nickel** On the basis of the above-mentioned increases in MHP and high-grade nickel matte raw material costs, the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated high-grade nickel matte is estimated at approximately $21,773/mt Ni, an increase of $622/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment; the cost of producing refined nickel from integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) is estimated at approximately $20,560/mt Ni, an increase of $2,652/mt Ni compared with before the HPM formula adjustment. In addition, based on the LME spot settlement price on April 14 and the nickel intermediate product transaction coefficients (91.5% for MHP and 92.5% for high-grade nickel matte), the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased high-grade nickel matte is $18,705/mt Ni, and the spot cost of producing refined nickel from externally purchased MHP is $19,378/mt Ni. Both costs are higher than the current LME nickel prices, indicating relatively strong cost support. In summary, Indonesia's ESDM reform of the HPM benchmark price formula represents a systematic restructuring of the pricing system, upgrading nickel ore pricing from "single nickel element pricing" to "nickel + cobalt + iron + chromium multi-element comprehensive pricing," reshaping the nickel ore cost basis from multiple dimensions. In the short term, the policy landing beyond expectations has already driven nickel prices to rise significantly, with market sentiment leaning bullish; however, medium and long-term impacts depend on cost pass-through efficiency, the pace of high inventory digestion, and downstream demand absorption capacity. Going forward, close attention is still needed on the actual implementation by Indonesian mine enterprises, smelter procurement price negotiation outcomes, and the substantive magnitude of price increases for intermediate products such as MHP and NPI. Risk warning: According to ESDM Ministerial Decree NO.144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, the benchmark ore price (HPM) is the minimum selling price for metal mineral sales. If metal minerals are sold below the HPM price, the HPM must still be used as the basis for calculating tax obligations and as the benchmark price for levying production fees (royalties). Therefore, the above costs are calculated based on the assumption that the wet-process ore selling price is no lower than the new HPM benchmark price. The resulting integrated MHP (after cobalt credit) production cost of refined nickel is relatively high. However, the actual selling price of nickel ore will need to be negotiated between mines and smelters, and there is a possibility that the final transaction price may be lower than the new HPM benchmark price.
Apr 14, 2026 20:08
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