2025 Copper Supply Crisis: Disruptions Soar as Major Mines Cut or Halt Production [SMM Analysis]

On February 25, 2025, a large-scale nationwide power outage occurred in Chile, which had a certain negative impact on Chile's copper production. According to SMM, the nationwide power outage in Chile began at 3:00 PM local time on February 25, 2025, and power supply gradually resumed in various regions starting at 9:00 PM on February 25, 2025. Data from Chile's National Statistics Institute showed that Chile's copper production in February 2025 was 394,500 tonnes, lower than the annual monthly average of 440,000 tonnes. Copper mines such as Chuquicamata, Salvador, El Teniente, Spence, Collahuasi, and Quebrada Blanca experienced varying degrees of production reductions.

In mid-to-late March 2025, a mining accident occurred at the East Zhezkazgan mine in the Ulytau region of Kazakhstan, operated by Kazakhmys. A miner born in 1994 fell into the No. 57 mine shaft during unloading and died on the spot. Since February, several miners have lost their lives in mining accidents. The company stated that East Zhezkazgan would only resume production after comprehensive safety measures were strengthened and all potential hazards were eliminated. East Zhezkazgan produces 600 tonnes of copper per day.

In early April 2025, a worker died at the Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile, operated by KGHM, leading to a temporary halt in production. Although the unfortunate incident was production-related, it did not affect Sierra Gorda's production plan. Sierra Gorda has four Larox filter production lines, and prior to the accident, one of the Larox filter lines was already scheduled for maintenance shutdown, while the other three continued to operate. Sierra Gorda's copper production remains within the annual plan.

In late April 2025, the Antamina copper mine in Peru, which had been shut down due to an accident on April 22, gradually resumed operations on the morning of April 24.

Starting May 20, 2025, seismic activity intermittently occurred at the Kakula underground mine, and underground mining operations were suspended again on May 25, 2025. The earthquakes caused fractures in underground river veins, increasing water inflow at the Kakula underground mine. After Ivanhoe Mines announced the suspension of underground mining at the Kakula copper mine, management phased in the resumption of production on the western and eastern sides of the mine. Ivanhoe Mines released an updated 2025 copper production guidance for Kamoa-Kakula of 370,000–420,000 tonnes, a 28% decrease from the initial guidance of 520,000–580,000 tonnes released at the beginning of the year.

In early June 2025, a mechanical failure occurred at the Carmen de Andacollo copper mine, operated by Teck Resources, requiring the shutdown of the SAG mill for repairs. Production is expected to be interrupted for approximately one month due to the repairs.

In early June 2025, Hudbay Minerals announced the suspension of production at the Snow Lake polymetallic mine due to frequent Canadian forest wildfires. The company stated it would resume full production operations when conditions permitted. On August 22, the mandatory evacuation order in Manitoba, Canada, was lifted, and Hudbay Minerals restarted operations at the Snow Lake mine in Manitoba. The company completed safety inspections of infrastructure, including mine shafts, and restored underground power infrastructure. The Snow Lake mine resumed full production capacity in early September.

On July 23, 2025, six students from Northeastern University were visiting the flotation process at the Wunugetushan Copper-Molybdenum Mine's processing plant, operated by China Gold Group Inner Mongolia Mining Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the company, when the grid plate collapsed, causing them to fall into the flotation tank. Inner Mongolia Mining suspended production. On September 9, 2025, after 47 days of shutdown, Inner Mongolia Mining resumed operations.

On July 25, 2025, an accident occurred at the Red Chris mine in northwestern British Columbia, Canada, operated by Newmont, trapping three workers underground and suspending operations at the mine. A week later, the three trapped workers at Newmont's Red Chris mine in Canada were safely rescued after being trapped underground for over 60 hours.

In early August 2025, a casualty accident occurred at the El Teniente copper mine, operated by Codelco. Reports indicated that an earthquake caused six deaths, and activities near the accident site were halted. After evaluations by mining and labor departments, eight underground areas deemed safe (Pilar Norte, Esmeralda Panel, Esmeralda, Upper Pacific, Diablo Regimiento, Reno Panel, Dacita, and Reservas Norte sectors) resumed production shortly thereafter, and the smelter was also restarted. However, four other mining areas near the accident site remained closed. Codelco stated that following the fatal collapse at the El Teniente copper mine in late July, the mine's copper production for the year is expected to be 316,000 tonnes. Prior to the accident, SMM had estimated El Teniente's 2025 copper production at 370,000 tonnes.

In early September, the Mantoverde mine operation area in Chile, operated by Capstone Copper, was forced to suspend production after the motors of two ball mills failed within a week, leading to a temporary decline in output. Capstone management estimated that repairs would take approximately four weeks, reducing copper production by 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes due to the incident.

According to a Freeport-McMoRan announcement, since the tailings leak accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8, two people have died, and five remain missing. The Grasberg copper mine suspended production. Freeport-McMoRan expects 2026 production to be 35% lower than previously estimated. Based on SMM's assessment, Grasberg's 2025 copper production is projected to be 488,000 tonnes (previously estimated at 750,000 tonnes), and 2026 copper production is expected to be 500,000 tonnes (previously estimated at 730,000 tonnes).

In late September, Teck Resources extended the production suspension at its Quebrada Blanca copper mine due to tailings dam elevation work. The 2025 copper production guidance was revised downward from 210,000–230,000 tonnes to 170,000–190,000 tonnes, and the 2026 forecast was also reduced from 280,000–310,000 tonnes to 200,000–235,000 tonnes. Due to ongoing tailings management facility construction and production suspensions in 2026, optimization projects aimed at increasing processing capacity by 5%–10% at the Quebrada Blanca mine will be postponed until after 2027–2028. Additionally, due to declining ore grades and maintenance needs, Teck Resources lowered its 2025 copper production guidance for Highland Valley Copper from 135,000–150,000 tonnes to 120,000–130,000 tonnes.

In late September, Hudbay Minerals announced that due to unrest in Lima, Peru, and multiple protests across the country, its Constancia processing plant in Peru had been closed, and non-essential personnel had been evacuated. Hudbay Minerals stated that these issues would be resolved and would not affect its 2025 copper production and cost guidance ranges.

This year's copper concentrate supply is significantly lower than initially expected at the beginning of the year, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in copper concentrate supply for 2025. According to SMM calculations, the global copper concentrate supply-demand balance for this year is projected to be -326,000 tonnes.