If the price of IGBT rises in the middle of the year, will domestic manufacturers fully benefit from early production expansion?

IGBT is still out of stock this year, and the delivery of orders has been extended to more than 50 weeks at the earliest. According to the feedback of industry experts and the caliber of securities firms, the current supply capacity and demand ratio of IGBT is about 1 1.2, that is to say, IGBT will continue to be in short supply this year.

According to the forecast of CITIC Securities for the wafers required for IGBT, it will consume 57C68 / 780000 equivalent 8-inch wafers per month for 21-23 years, while the supply side will be 10,000 wafers per month on 48-58-74.

Combined with the above data, the tight supply and demand of IGBT is expected to ease in 2023 at the earliest.

Leading foreign manufacturers have always maintained a cautious attitude towards production expansion. For example, Infineon, Mitsubishi and Fuji contribute more than 80% of the world's production capacity, taking into account the long construction cycle of production capacity (usually about 2 years) and the difficulty of equipment procurement in expanding production. You have to pay a high premium to buy second-hand equipment. In addition, it is also necessary to consider comprehensive factors such as the increase in demand for IGBT in the market in the long run. Once the supply capacity of IGBT in the market far exceeds the demand, the price of IGBT will drop rapidly, and the new capacity is likely to face the embarrassing situation of not making money as soon as it is released. According to the latest situation, the 12-inch production line of Infineon has been landed, and it is estimated that the new production capacity will be about 10%; other manufacturers are still under construction for the time being.

In this round of IGBT expansion cycle, domestic manufacturers are the main force. On the one hand, domestic manufacturers originally had a small production capacity, a low base, and less than 20% of the world's production capacity.

According to the trends of domestic manufacturers: the new production capacity pays attention to Silan Micro, time Electric and BYD Semiconductor.

The first phase of the 12-inch expansion project has added 40, 000 pieces of production per month by the end of 21 years, while the second phase of 12-inch production capacity is also accelerating (this is 7 billion of the 12-inch capacity that was invested at the end of 17 years). The second phase of capacity expansion was launched in the first half of last year, and the car specification level should be accelerated. According to the company's caliber, it has a total production capacity of 200000 pieces in 21 years; BYD Semiconductor has an existing 6-inch factory in Ningbo, which can achieve 40, 000 pieces per month, and it is expected to increase its production capacity by 40, 000 pieces per month in 22 years; time Electric has a production capacity of 120000 pieces per year, and the second phase production capacity in 2022 can reach 240000 pieces per year.

The companies that have just added production capacity are all IDM production mode, while the other batch is Fabless mode, which requires contract manufacturers, such as Starr semiconductors, Xinjianeng, contract factories such as Huahong, Jita and Huarunwei, and SMIC Shaoxing does not have specification-level IGBT OEM for the time being.

As previously analyzed, the IDM model is more suitable for the current situation and can quickly get the dividend of the current IGBT business cycle. Its advantage is that the product iteration is rapid, which usually takes only 3 months to complete, while the Fabless factory usually takes half a year. In addition, the IDM factory is easier to achieve profits, and the contract manufacturing mode can well control the cost and increase the gross profit margin of the enterprise. However, as a Fab factory, the design cost will be much higher, so it is a business model that is difficult to improve profits. in addition, under the condition of high load, the Fabless factory has to wait in line for the construction period, which is far less fast than the IDM factory in terms of product delivery time.

After talking about the capacity, let's take a look at the downstream demand: how big is the demand for IGBT for photovoltaic and new energy vehicles this year, and what is the growth rate?

IGBT is mainly driven by the demand for new energy, of which photovoltaic and new energy vehicles are the most concerned. According to demand estimates in 2022, domestic sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 5.5 million, an increase of nearly 60 per cent over the same period last year, while the global installed capacity of photovoltaic is expected to reach 210GW, an increase of 40 per cent over the same period last year.

But it is worth noting that at present, the main domestic supply is photovoltaic inverter-level IGBT or MOS tube, and this industry is not using a long-term agreement, generally speaking, centralized procurement will start at the end of the year, but affected by seasonal fluctuations, prices fluctuate greatly. At present, as the price of IGBT continues to rise, the cost pressure of the inverter is also very great, and the price has been raised recently.

The car specification level will generally use the long Association way, but the car specification level IGBT requirements will be relatively high, for the time being, only time Electric and BYD can mass production, while the biggest contribution to the performance of time Electric is track IGBT.

In other words, from the comparison of the growth rate of the industry, the demand growth rate of new energy vehicles should exceed the demand growth rate of photovoltaic. However, domestic manufacturers are more likely to further improve the permeability in the photovoltaic industry.

Photovoltaic demand for IGBT this year is very strong, due to the upsurge in raw materials last year led to demand has been suppressed, so the installed capacity is less than expected, so this year's demand situation will be better than previously expected.

Both Sunshine and Huawei are targeting around 70GW this year, with Infineon supplying 80 per cent of IGBT in the past, 10 per cent from Fuji and the remaining 10 per cent from domestic manufacturers. According to Infineon's 22-year production capacity is expected to be 120GW, there is 60GW is the booked quantity of the two companies, in January this year, the two companies accepted a six-point price increase in Infineon to lock in production capacity, the remaining capacity is not clear about the allocation. Jinlang Technology and Gudwei are expected to be 18GW and 15GW, which are basically user-side and group-string, and the demand increment is not very large.

At present, technically, the semiconducting efficiency of Shilan Wei and Starr is close to 99%, which is for one supply. The two companies also mainly do IGBT single tube on photovoltaic, and there are few modules that can be done in China. However, the production capacity of the two companies is still not enough, so other companies should also be considered to provide second and third supply, such as New Jianneng, Acer and Micro Technologies, which are mainly working with Huawei.

Summary: the supply of IGBT is still tight, and domestic manufacturers will benefit from this round of production expansion dividends, especially those who pay attention to IDM mode. When the production capacity of contract factories is tight, they have more first-mover advantages than fabless factories. In addition, for the downstream demand of IGBT, the industry growth rate of new energy vehicles is slightly higher than that of photovoltaic; but most of the production capacity released by domestic manufacturers is still used for photovoltaic.