Recently, due to the rapid growth of demand for lithium iron phosphate in the new energy industry chain, the production of raw material phosphate has dropped by nearly 40% compared with 2016. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the ex-factory price of products has reached the highest level in nearly a decade.
At present, phosphate products are still in a tight supply situation. By the end of June 2021, the mainstream ex-factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3200 yuan / ton, up 57.25% over the beginning of the year and 77.78% over the same period last year, reaching the highest level in nearly a decade. The average ex-factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3350 yuan / ton, up 38.43% from the beginning of the year and 56.91% over the same period last year. Some companies in the industry drive to the maximum under the premise of meeting the safety and environmental protection policy.
Recently, lithium iron phosphate has returned to the mainstream of lithium cathode materials, and the demand is growing rapidly. Due to the application in the new energy field of lithium battery, the industry has high requirements for the purity of iron phosphate, so it needs to be prepared from high-purity phosphoric acid or high-purity phosphate in the production process, which further increases the indirect consumption of phosphate ore. However, in recent years, with the continuous promotion of the regulation of "tri-phosphorus", the supply end of phosphate rock shrinks obviously.
The total domestic phosphate rock output in 2020 was 88.93 million tons, down about 38.4% from the all-time high in 2016. At present, under the situation that many enterprises have put into production of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate, the shortage of phosphate rock supply has further intensified.
Founder Securities analysis pointed out that the future demand for lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue to exceed expectations, and it is expected that the demand for lithium iron phosphate in China will reach 2.07 million tons in 2025, and enterprises with large total phosphorus processing capacity will benefit. Wherever the demand for lithium iron phosphate goes, it will lead to a shortage, and the phosphorus chemical industry chain will form triple opportunities.
The first is the shortage of high-purity phosphoric acid and industrial monoammonium, the barrier is mainly in the production capacity expansion cycle of yellow phosphorus and phosphate fertilizer to produce high-purity phosphoric acid and monoammonium; the second is the shortage of yellow phosphorus and phosphate fertilizer, and the barrier is mainly reflected in the expansion policy restrictions of phosphate chemical industry; finally, the shortage of phosphate rock, the barriers are reflected in the policy barriers and resource scarcity of phosphate ore.
