On January 29, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a press conference on the operation of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2020. Jia Xing, vice president and secretary-general of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, introduced the situation and answered reporters' questions. Jia Xing said that in 2020, in the face of the sudden COVID-19 epidemic, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, the non-ferrous metals industry and non-ferrous metal enterprises will actively and orderly promote the resumption of work and production while doing a good job in preventing and controlling the epidemic. After bottoming out in the first quarter, the non-ferrous metals industry has gone out of the trend of recovery and improvement from the second quarter. Overall, the operation of the whole year of 2020 is obviously better than expected, and the production and efficiency of non-ferrous metals industry and the average annual price of copper and aluminum are better than the previous year.
The annual operation of non-ferrous metals industry in 2020 is obviously better than expected.
Jia Xing first analyzed the operation of the non-ferrous industry for the whole year: first, in 2020, the output of China's ten non-ferrous metals broke through the 60 million tons mark for the first time, reaching 61.68 million tons, an increase of 5.5 percent over the same period last year. Second, the rate of decline in fixed asset investment will gradually narrow in 2020. In 2020, the total investment in fixed assets of China's non-ferrous metals industry (including independent gold enterprises) decreased by 1.0% compared with the same period last year. Of this total, it fell 11.4% in the first quarter from the same period last year, 8.9% in the first half of the year, and 7.0% in the first three quarters. Third, at the end of 2020, the import of forged copper and copper products increased by a large margin, while the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products and rare earths decreased. Fourth, in 2020, the average annual prices of copper and aluminum in the domestic spot market rebounded to higher than the previous year's price level. Fifth, in 2020, the main financial indicators of non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises are obviously better than expected. In 2020, the operating income of non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises (including independent gold enterprises) reached 5.82665 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.8% over the same period last year, and the total profit was 183.32 billion yuan, an increase of 19.2% over the same period last year.
During the 13th five-year Plan period, the production of non-ferrous metals industry increased steadily and the investment decreased steadily.
Reviewing the development of the non-ferrous metals industry during the 13th five-year Plan period, Jia Xing said that during the 13th five-year Plan period, the production of the non-ferrous metals industry rose steadily and the investment steadily declined. In 2020, the benefits of non-ferrous metals enterprises have rebounded to better profit levels than in 2018 and 2019.
The characteristics are as follows: first, during the 13th five-year Plan period, the overall output of China's ten non-ferrous metals maintained a steady increase, with an average annual growth rate of 3.6%. Second, during the 13th five-year Plan period, the total investment in fixed assets in China's non-ferrous metals industry showed a steady decline, with an average annual decline of 2.6%. Third, during the 13th five-year Plan period, China's imports of copper and aluminum mine raw materials and copper smelting products increased significantly. Fourth, at the end of 2020, the closing prices of copper and aluminum in March of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were the highest at the end of the 13th five-year Plan period, and the average annual prices of copper and aluminum in the domestic spot market were both the third highest during the 13th five-year Plan period. Fifth, during the 13th five-year Plan period, the profits of regulated non-ferrous metal enterprises rebounded significantly in 2020 after falling in 2018 and 2019.
The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to maintain a positive trend in 2021.
Looking forward to the trend of the industry this year, Jia Xing said that from the international macro environment, it is expected that the impact of the epidemic on the global economy will continue in the first half of 2021, and after the introduction of the vaccine, the epidemic is expected to be brought under control. it is expected that the global economy will only recover in the second half of the year. In addition, the accelerated evolution of the international political and economic pattern in 2021, the continued regional differentiation of cross-border direct investment, the coexistence of "dangers" and "opportunities" in the international multilateral economic and trade system, and the restructuring of the global industrial chain. Overall, the economies of the world's major countries are expected to recover gradually in 2021, but there are still great risks.
From the perspective of domestic macro-economy, 2021 is the first year of the implementation of the 14th five-year Plan, which will continue to promote the expansion of domestic demand, support innovative development, and improve the business environment, coupled with low base factors, economic growth may return to above the normal level of growth. In terms of macro policy, we will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy in 2021, and monetary policy will pay more attention to accuracy and flexibility, promote the transformation and upgrading of consumption, improve the quality and efficiency of investment, and strengthen the coordinated development of innovation and industry. However, it should also be noted that there is still great uncertainty in the political and economic environment at home and abroad.
Based on the macroeconomic environment at home and abroad, combined with the "Trinity" climate index report compiled and issued by the Nonferrous Association, under the premise that there is no "black swan" incident, it is preliminarily judged that the overall growth rate of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2021 will be "high in front and stable later".
His forecast for the main indicators of the non-ferrous metals industry in 2021 is as follows: first, the overall production of non-ferrous metals will remain stable, with an annual growth rate of about 3%; second, it is expected that the prices of major non-ferrous metals will remain high in the first half of the year, and the possibility of a pullback in the second half of the year will not be ruled out, but the average annual price for the whole year will still be better than the average annual price in 2020; third, the profits of non-ferrous metal enterprises are expected to maintain growth. Fourth, the amount of fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metals industry is roughly the same as that in 2020, and it is unlikely that there will be a substantial increase or decline; fifth, the decline in exports of non-ferrous metal products is also expected to ease, but a sharp rebound in exports is unlikely.
