According to SMM Steel on July 27th: near August, the order taking of major steel mills is coming to an end. In order to understand the situation of steel mills taking orders and their views on the spot price of hot coils in the later period, SMM has recently conducted a detailed follow-up survey of steel mills.
Overall, both agreement steel mills and price-locked steel mills basically maintained a steady preference for receiving orders in August, and even some steel mills still have the phenomenon of overconnection, driven by a continuous rebound in some terminal demand. Superimposed on the current steel mill inventory pressure is small, so the overall willingness to raise the price is still strong.
However, combined with the current situation of hot rolling of SMM Iron and Steel, the probability of periodic callback is expected to be higher. Mainly because, on the one hand, the supply of hot rolling is still increasing, while the short-term terminal demand has not been released, the fundamentals have the phenomenon of marginal weakening. On the other hand, the spot price of hot rolling has risen for four months in a row, with increases of 700-800 yuan per ton in each market, resulting in stronger fear of heights among traders and terminals, a slowdown in the pace of procurement and stock preparation, and a decrease in market trading activity. the signal that the phased price is peaking gradually appears. At the same time, the continuous accumulation of hot rolling inventory, coupled with the continuous disturbance of the international macro surface, it is expected that the risk of periodic pullback of hot rolling prices is greater. The detailed investigation of steel mills is as follows:
AG (Northeast): in August, the hot rolling line of the steel plant was overhauled, and the output of commercial materials decreased slightly. At present, hot rolling orders have been overtaken, especially concentrated box orders are significantly better than last month. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of steel mills, and it is generally optimistic about the price of follow-up hot rolling.
JL (Northeast): the output of hot rolled commercial materials in August is basically stable, and the orders are mainly cold rolling mills, welded pipes and steel structures. at present, cold rolling mills prefer to accept orders compared with other varieties.
TG (Northeast): the overall order in August is basically stable, the output of steel mills is also basically stable, and the hot rolling price in August is relatively not particularly optimistic.
BG (North China): resources have just been allocated in August and the order has not yet been officially received. However, from the feedback of the customer's intention, the customer's willingness to order is more positive.
ZH (North China): the output of steel mills increased slightly in August, and the orders were relatively stable. The flow of resources was mainly in the north. At present, the volume going south is less.
YG (North China): Changsha resources are relatively stable in August, price-locking resources can be ordered in the near future, and there has been an increase in the recent release in East China.
WG (Huazhong): the steel mill resumed normal production in August, and the hot rolling was basically full production. The hot rolling order is better, with a small amount of overconnection.
LG (Central China): the planned output of commercial timber in August is relatively stable, and the order is also relatively stable, mainly the automobile terminal.
MG (East China): the planned volume of commodity timber decreased slightly in August affected by the flood, and the overall preference for receiving orders is basically full.
WG (South China): the output remained stable in August. At present, the acceptance of orders in August has not yet begun, there is no pressure on the factory and warehouse, and the willingness to raise prices is strong.
PG (Southwest): August orders are less popular than July, but the overall order acceptance is no problem, a small amount of overconnection. Among them, engineering pipe, steel structure, commercial vehicle demand is weaker than in July, home appliance orders are still hot.