SMM Price Forecast of Lead Cathode, Nov 24

SHFE nonferrous metals broadly rose for the most part on Wednesday June 23 with investors awaiting key Purchasing Managers' Indexes from the euro zone.

SHFE nonferrous metals broadly closed higher across the board on Tuesday June 22, triggered by the Fed's updated inflation projections and a shortening of its interest rate hike schedule.

SHFE nonferrous metals broadly fell on Monday June 21, following jitters in global markets over the more hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve last week.

LME base metals closed mixed in the overnight trading last Friday, as the expanding inflation and rising US dollar weighed on the market, but short supply still supported the prices. SHFE metals basically went down.

LME base metals all fell in the overnight trading yesterday, as US dollar index went up slightly, and the plummeting US May retail sales brought negative sentiments to the market. Meanwhile, SHFE metals closed mixed amid the policy control.

SHFE nonferrous metals all closed higher on Friday May 28. Copper rose 2.22%, aluminium added 1.47%, zinc increased 2.83%, nickel soared 4.85%, lead gained 1.6% and tin surged 4.81%.  

Lead prices bottomed out after the settlement as bears sold out positions. Domestic lead concentrate supply remained tight, and the quotations were chaos, but the smelters did not reduce production significantly. The primary lead supply was sufficient.

The State Council of China established a task force to curb unreasonable price increases for commodities in a bid to prevent transmission to consumer prices. As such, SHFE copper prices fell for three consecutive days.

US CPI far exceeded market expectations, triggering market concerns that the US will tighten liquidity ahead of schedule. As a result, the US dollar index stopped falling and rebounded. The decline in the US dollar index is likely to be limited, weighing on copper prices in the short term. Informal financing in China fell short of expectations in April

The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract opened at 19,800 yuan/mt last week and closed at 19,315 yuan/mt, down 540 yuan/mt or 2.72%. Longs reduced positions by 92,000 lots to 179,000 lots. LME aluminium dropped 3.79% last week. The outlook for market liquidity is not as optimistic as earlier. The Fed has maintained its stance over monetary easing policy. However, the increase in US PPI in April was higher than expected, triggering market concerns of inflation. Commodity prices fell last Friday after the State Council sent a signal that it would effectively respond to the overheating in commodity prices.