(July 24 Weekly Review)
< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.
Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe death / 1108 / 2029 / 204 / 11 / 4657 (11).
Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 277300 / > 15.5814 million / 63.
Us Empire first: Trump virus 4.17 million! New / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 72132 > 4.1701 million / 14 7333.
Serious countries and regions:
1. Brazil: > 2.289 million / 66614Universe 8pm 4207.
2. India: > 1.2902 million / 42906tick 3pr 0657.
3. Russia: > 789100 / 5862 Universe 12745.
4. Mexico: > 370700 / 6019 Universe 4gamma 1908.
5. UK: > 297100 / 0bat 4pm 5554.
6. South Africa: > 408000 / 13150amp 6093.
7. Peru: > 371000 / 4463 Compact 17654.
8. Chile: > 338700 / 1719 Universe 8838.
9. Iran: > 284000 / 2621 gray 15074.
10. Baccartan: > 270400 / 1763C5763.
11. Saudi Arabia: > 260300 / 2238 Compact 2635.
13. Bangladesh: > 216100 / 2856 / 2801.
14. Columbia: > 226300 / 7390 Universe 7688.
15. Argentina: > 148000 / 5782 Universe 2702.
< 2 > Today's current replay: worries about the deterioration and escalation of Sino-US relations, the plunge in futures, and a steady decline in spot prices.
1. Today, the spot market price of steel is generally weak and stable. Among them, Hangzhou and Shanghai in East China fell by 10 to 20 yuan, Beijing by 20 yuan, Guangzhou by 20 yuan, Chengdu by 20 yuan, Nanjing by 10 yuan, Zhengzhou by 10 yuan, and most regions were stable.
Transaction: large convergence, deviation.
Market mentality: stabilize the owner.
Tangshan area billet downward 20 to 3400 yuan / ton.
Raw material end:
The price of scrap is rising steadily.
Coke prices rise after falling, coke enterprises start a new round of rise and expansion, Xuzhou follow up, steel coke game prologue begins …. No, no.
The price of main coking coal is stable.
The spot price of iron ore port fell 5-10 yuan / ton yesterday. Among them, 840,848 yuan per ton of PB powder in Shandong and 845,850 yuan per ton in Tangshan were traded weakly.
For details, see SMM Nonferrous Network: [daily Review of Iron Ore Market]
Today, Liantie jumped short and opened low, and the port spot market fell slightly by 5 yuan / ton in early trading. The afternoon market dived, and the price decline of some varieties in the spot market was magnified. Near the weekend, the willingness of steel mills to purchase goods is not high, and some businesses still have price-raising behavior, today's overall transaction is weaker than yesterday. Shandong PB powder turnover of about 840 yuan / ton, Tangshan area PB powder turnover of 845 million yuan / ton, compared with yesterday showed a decline of 5mur10 yuan / ton.
RB2010 main contract: the day fluctuated between 3805 and 3728, closing at 3747.
HC2010 main contract: the day fluctuated between 3839 and 3744, closing at 3767.
Iron ore i2009 main contract: fell sharply between 849 and 815.5 in the day, closing at 827.5.
Coke J2009 main contract: within the day between 2025 and 1950.5 fall high, closing 1979.
Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1215.5 to 1241 shock uplink, closing 1237.
< 3 > simple playback of this week's issue
1. The main factors of this week's multi-empty game include, but are not limited to:
(1) the domestic epidemic in the United States has further worsened, the election situation of psychopath Trump is urgent, the political division has intensified, and social contradictions have escalated, "urgent transfer of domestic contradictions" to curb the unscrupulous and even war threat to China!
(2) the need for transmission at the executive meeting of the State Council shall be added.
(3) the demand for post-disaster reconstruction is increased after the end of the flood season.
(4) the apparent demand converges further.
(5) the output will decline in stages and then expand.
(6) the social inventory has been built for 6 consecutive weeks, and the inventory in Hangzhou market remains high due to the huge loss of arbitrage in the current period.
(7) the epidemic situation in mineral-producing countries such as Brazil, India and South Africa is getting worse.
(8) the price of coke has stopped falling and rising. No, no.
(9) the production limit of Tangshan Independent Rolling Mill is strict.
(10) the Baltic dry bulk index continued to fall sharply.
(11) the offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuates by 7.0.
(12) Dollar Index breaks through 95
2. Spot: the center of gravity of steel prices continued to move upward this week: rebar rose by 10: 40 yuan / ton in most regions, while it fell by 10: 40 yuan / ton in a few areas (down 40 yuan in Beijing, 20 yuan in Chongqing, 10 yuan in Zhengzhou and 10 yuan in Guangzhou)
3. Futures: the overall rebound is still on the way.
RB2010 main contract: continued to rebound between 3696 and 3816 during the week, closing at 3747 per week (3726 last week).
HC2010 main contract: continued to rebound between 3726 and 3844 during the week, closing at 3767 per week (3752 last week).
I2009 main contract: wide concussion between 811 and 861.5 of the week, closing at 827.5 per week (last week).
J2009 main contract: a sharp rebound between 1931 and 2025, with a weekly close of 1979 (1943 last week).
JM2009 main contract: between 1203 and 1247.5 strong shock, weekly close of 1237 (last week closed 1210.5).
The author predicts that the perfect landing is about 3820 of rebar, 870 of iron ore and 2010 to 2040 of coke.
< 4 > next week's current forecast:
1. Spot aspect: the front is low and then high, concussion forward.
RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3690 and 3830
HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3700 and 3850
I2009 main contract: concussion between 810 and 870.
J2009 main contract: concussion between 1940 and 2040
JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1210 and 1260
3. Spot operation suggestion: increase inventory by an appropriate amount whenever there is a large correction
4. Futures operation suggestion
Thread, hot roll: last week, the author suggested that the upper edge of the range near the value of more than a single surplus to leave the field, the activist empty single appropriate amount of intervention. Next week, it is suggested that the empty order should not only leave the market, but also get involved in the bargain-hunting process.
Iron ore: in the range, the bargain is still dominated by bargain, the holdings are reduced near the upper value, and the preferred option is more than one month.
Coke: choose more machine cloth in the range of activists, and it is suitable for fast in and out.
Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market.
RB2010 main contract: support level 3670, pressure level 3830.
HC2010 main contract: support 3700, pressure 3850.
I2009 main contract: support level 800, pressure level 870.
J2009 main contract: support level 1930, pressure level 2040.
JM2005 main contract: support level 1210, pressure level 1250.
< 5 > Information and heart words.
1. [Xuzhou Coke Enterprises plan to increase 50 yuan / ton] on the 24th, the mentality of the coke market in Xuzhou area of Jiangsu Province has improved, and the shipments are smooth. Now a local coke enterprise plans to increase 50 yuan / ton on July 25th, and after the increase, the quasi-first-class dry quenching quotation is 2150 yuan / ton. because the order is sufficient, it will not be sold at this price for the time being.
2. As of July 24, inventories at 35 ports tracked by SMM totaled 105.21 million tons, an increase of 2.31 million tons over the previous week and a decrease of 1.09 million tons from the same period last year. Port inventory has accumulated for the sixth week in a row, and the growth rate continues to expand. The average daily dredging volume of the port decreased by 278000 tons to 2.533 million tons compared with the previous period. Since the end of last week, automobile transportation in Tangshan area has been banned, and only a small amount of fire transportation has been banned. The average daily port dredging of Jingtang and Caofeidian ports has dropped by more than 330000 tons compared with last week, or more than 50%, resulting in a significant decline in the overall dredging of ports in this period. At the same time, the recent arrival of goods in Tangshan and Tangshan has led to a significant increase in port inventory. In addition, due to the recent floods in the areas along the Yangtze River, some steel mills have increased their overhauling and other measures, resulting in a decline in the opening of ports compared with the previous month, and an increase in the inventory of some ports along the Yangtze River. With the weakening of the impact of rainstorm and flood in the later period, and the opening of port dredging in Tangshan area, the daily dredging of imported mines is expected to rise month-on-month. [SMM Steel]
3. Baltic dry bulk Index: down 5.77% to 1388 points.
4. The main factors affecting next week are Sino-US relations and whether the demand return period after the flood season is verified.
With regard to the foreseeable future direction of Sino-US relations, the author has made forward-looking deductions, which are all within range so far. The Trump campaign is overwhelming. With the further deterioration of the Trump virus (there is no doubt), the author sees that the world inside him is threatening China and even war, but the probability of passing the United States is zero. As for the impact of Sino-US trade, the author once said that the dead dog is not afraid of boiling water, steel trade is already limited, why worry about reconvergence, the overall impact on steel exports is very limited! After today's emotional release, we will eventually return to the domestic level of strong expectations and weak realization of the game. At the end of the late flood season, the author is certain that the demand will return to the end of the flood season, and the weak realization of normal maintenance for a month is a high probability event, and inventory is the biggest resistance to suppressing the rebound of steel prices! Similarly, scrap steel, iron ore and coke are the biggest resistance to prevent steel prices from falling back, that is, cost support. The transformation of weak implementation into strong implementation is a time positive correlation function. In short, the point of view remained unchanged in July, and there are many battles on the road to rebound.
In terms of iron ore, in order to prevent the threat of war between the United States and the United States, it is necessary for a great country to make full ideological preparation strategically, and it is even more indispensable to attach importance to military exercises tactically. The quotation of Chairman Mao, the great leader, punched open with one blow to avoid a hundred punches. It is an out-of-body statement to believe that the leadership of the country is wise enough. For iron ore, is the military exercise blocking transportation?! The benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom! Wait and see! In short, the author really can not find the real driving force of the decline in iron ore!
Market outlook for July: for details, see the monthly Review of June 25.