SMM Steel July 21, this week's mainstream market resources are expected to arrive at 176000 tons, 7000 tons less than last week. In terms of segmentation, the volume of goods arriving in both the Shanghai market and Tianjin market has decreased a little, but the volume of goods from the market is still increasing.
Table 1: comparison of arrival in mainstream markets
Source: SMM Steel
Shanghai market: the recent arrival volume of the market is relatively repeated, but the overall volume is stable. Although the area of terminal demand is affected by fear of heights, the release is lower than expected, but the actual performance shows no obvious signs of weakening. In the short term, the fundamentals of the market preference can be maintained, and spot prices are expected to be dominated by high volatility.
Figure 1: comparison of arrival volume and spot price in Shanghai market
Source: SMM Steel
Lecong market: the volume of goods arriving in this market continues to increase this week, and traders' inventory increases with the increase in the number of goods arriving. However, as the current inventory is still affordable, the willingness of traders to raise prices still exists. After the superposition of plum, terminal demand is released normally, and spot prices remain high in the near future. It is worth noting that recently, due to the low price of hot rolls in Guangxi, Liugang has correspondingly increased its investment in the Lecong market, and the supply side has a further increasing trend, so it is expected that in the future, when the terminal demand is lukewarm and the supply increases, the spot price in the market will have the risk of weakening and adjusting.
Figure 2: comparison between the volume of goods from the market and the spot price
Source: SMM Steel
Tianjin market: recently, the market has entered an awkward game stage. On the supply side, overall supply has increased slightly, but not enough to suppress the market. On the demand side, it is flat and light in the near future, and most of the terminals are based on-demand procurement. The inventory of superimposed traders is not high, and the willingness to sell at reduced prices is not strong, so it continues to be in the game stage between merchants and terminals, which also promotes the recent spot prices to fluctuate in a narrow range.
Figure 3: comparison of arrival volume and spot price in Tianjin market
Source: SMM Steel
