[SMM current Weekly Review] favorite price after rain and sunshine

(July 17 Weekly Review)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe death / 699Universe 1998Universe 104Univer 4651.

The State Drug Administration: make every effort to promote the research and development of Xinguan pneumonia vaccine on the market.

Wu Zunyou: the epidemic and related transmission in Beijing have basically stopped.

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 25pr 2651 / > 13.8843 million / 58pr 8451.

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 77431 > 3.6954 million / 14pr 1124.

Serious countries and regions: more than 2 million in Brazil and 1 million in India.

1. Brazil: > 2.0147 million / 39069mp 7pr 6822.

2. India: > 1.0058 million / 41870 gray 2jue 5622.

3. Russia: > 759200 / 6428Univer 12123.

4. Mexico: > 324000 / 6149gamma 3pm 7574.

5. UK: > 292500 / 641 Compact 4pm 5119.

6. South Africa: > 324200 / 12757 Universe 4669.

7. Peru: > 341500 / 3857amp 12615.

8. Chile: > 323600 / 0amp 7290.

9. Iran: > 267000 / 2500 Compact 13608.

10. Baccartan: > 259900 / 2145 Comp5475.

11. Saudi Arabia: > 243200 / 2764Comp2370.

13. Bangladesh: > 193500 / 3533amp 2457.

14. Columbia: > 173200 / 5271 Compact 6029.

15. Argentina: > 111100 / 4236 Universe 2112.

< 2 > Today's current playback

1. The price of steel in the spot market is mixed today.

Transaction situation: it is better than yesterday, but the overall situation is OK.

Market mentality: low price mentality is OK.

The billet in Tangshan area is stable to 3410 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

Scrap market prices rose in most areas.

Coke: the second round of lifting and lowering 50 yuan / ton basically landed on the ground.

The price of main coking coal remains stable.

The overall spot price of iron ore port fell 5-10 yuan / ton, trading is weak.

For details, see SMM Nonferrous Network: [daily Review of Iron Ore Market]

Today, Liantie is weak in finishing, and the morning quotation in the port spot market has been reduced by 5mur10 yuan / ton. Steel factory inquiries are deserted. As some merchants' bargaining space expands slightly, the transaction has improved. Although further tightening of control measures has been announced in Tangshan, the impact on blast furnace production is limited, the short-term iron ore demand remains high, and it is expected that the imported ore market may continue to fluctuate at a high level next week.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: bottomed out between 3685 and 3734 within the day, closing at 3726.

HC2010 main contract: bottomed out between 3722 and 3763 within the day, closing at 3752.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: within the day between 807 and 830.5 to rebound, closing cross star 826.

Coke J2009 main contract: within the day between 1890.5 to 1944.5 retaliatory rebound, closing at 1943.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1201 to 1218 shock uplink, closing 1210.5.

< 3 > simple playback of this week's issue

1. The main factors of this week's multi-empty game include, but are not limited to:

The market is worried about the intensification of Sino-US confrontation.

The growth rate of GDP exceeded market expectations.

The real estate data fell short of market expectations.

The Shanghai Composite Index is extremely happy and sad.

The epidemic in Brazil is getting worse.

Flood season affects RB demand more than expected

The epidemic in Beijing disturbed the end of life.

The output reached its peak and continued to decline in stages.

Steel mill de-warehousing continues to decline slightly

Production restrictions on environmental protection in Tangshan are tightening again.

Traditional thinking period arbitrage storm

Coke forced Dou E to fall in the second round.

Iron ore is still towering in the clouds.

The price of scrap is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Cost support is still strong.

Baltic dry bulk index fell

Offshore RMB exchange rate 7.0 swing

At one point, the dollar index broke through 96.0.

2. Spot: steel prices are generally strong and fluctuating this week, with an average increase of 30 yuan / ton of rebar.

3. Futures: the overall rebound is still on the way.

RB2010 main contract: continued to rebound between 3685 and 3768 during the week, closing at 3726 per week (3690 last week).

HC2010 main contract: continued to rebound between 3699 and 3788 during the week, closing at 3752 per week (3697 last week).

I2009 main contract: a sharp rebound between 793-845 during the week, closing at 826 per week (790.5 last week).

J2009 main contract: a sharp rebound between 1870 and 1944.5, with a weekly close of 1943 (1875 last week).

JM2009 main contract: between 1188.5 and 1218 strong shock, weekly close of 1210.5 (last week closed 1197).

The author predicts that the short rhythm will basically hit the ground, and the iron ore 825 will be cashed, but the rebar 3780 / 3820 still needs to be worked hard.

< 4 > next week's current forecast:

1. Spot: shock forward, the increase than this week is a high probability event.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3820 and 3670

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3850 and 3700

I2009 main contract: concussion between 870 and 800.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1960 and 1900

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1230 and 1180

3. Spot operation suggestion: increase inventory removal efforts whenever there is a sharp rebound.

4. Futures operation suggestion

Thread, hot roll: there are many single earnings leaving the field near the upper value in the range, and the activist is involved in the right amount of empty single.

Iron ore: in the range, the bargain is still dominated by bargain, the holdings are timely reduced near the upper value, and the superior item chooses the machine cloth for more than a month.

Coke: it is appropriate to wait and see near the upper value in the range after leaving the field.

Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3670, pressure level 3780, 3820.

HC2010 main contract: support 3700, pressure 3800, 3850.

I2009 main contract: support level 800, pressure level 870.

J2009 main contract: support 1900, pressure 1955.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1180, pressure level 1230.

< 5 > Information and heart words.

1. [China's steel production increased by 6.3% in June compared with the same period last year] the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in June 2020, China's steel production was 24.465 million tons, an increase of 6.3% over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to June was 123.212 million tons, an increase of 2.3% over the same period last year. In June, the output of medium-thick and wide steel strip in China was 14.181 million tons, an increase of 3.7% over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to June was 80.063 million tons, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last year. [SMM Steel]

2. Baltic dry bulk index: up 0.18% to 1699 points.

3. As of July 17, inventories at 35 ports tracked by SMM totaled 102.9 million tons, an increase of 1.48 million tons over the previous week and a decrease of 4.2 million tons from the same period last year. In this period, the increase in the inventory of imported mineral ports expanded, and the month-on-month growth of Shandong and Tangshan main ports showed an increasing trend. At the same time, the average daily dredging volume of the port fell by 55000 tons to 2.811 million tons compared with the previous month. Most steel mills continue the on-demand procurement strategy, leaving Hong Kong for a short-term or difficult to see a substantial increase. Although the last period of SMM statistics of iron ore arrival decreased slightly compared with the previous period, there is still a pressure on the port in some ports, and the inventory of imported ore ports is still expected to continue to increase in the later period. [SMM Steel]

4. 67 independent rolling mills in Tangshan will stop production from July 21 to 31.

According to the feedback of some manufacturers, due to the control and control of air pollution prevention and control in Fengrun District in July, independent steel rolling mills will stop production from 00: 00 on July 21 to 24:00 on July 31, and now the trading volume of profiles is increasing, and the mentality of being reluctant to sell in the market is enhanced.

5. The author predicts that the logic will be strong next week, from the main road to simplicity:

First, supply-side output phased convergence continues to move, superimposed environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan area become stricter again.

Second, the demand for building materials affected by the flood season is coming to an end, with plums coming out in most areas of the south; although the impact of the flood season is higher than expected, the demand is still very resilient.

Third, real estate housing construction is growing by 2.6%, and the growth rate of new construction has narrowed sharply by 7.6%, which is further supported by the demand for rush construction.

Fourth, the strengthening of cost support.

(1) the scrap resources are tight, and the price is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

(2) Iron ore prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall: the epidemic in Brazil has worsened, and Vale talks about its annual target of 3.1-330 million tons; weather factors affect Australian kangaroo shipments; strict environmental production restrictions at steel mills in Tangshan have nothing to do with iron ore demand. High domestic demand is fine.

(3) the fundamentals of coke are safe and sound, and Dou E is wronged in the second round of forced reduction of coke enterprises! The production capacity of Shanxi, Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu can be lost, and the demand for coke in steel mills will be more expected in the later period.

Fifth, the inventory pressure of steel mills has been further alleviated, and there is no pressure to reduce prices.

Fifth, futures are strongly expected to be affected by the stock market, repair and return at that time …. No, no.

Market outlook for July: for details, see the monthly Review of June 25.