The Rain Jersey Building needs the beauty to rest.
< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.
Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / critical count death / 603 swab 1989 994 Unix 104Accord 4651 (12 cases).
Middle disease control: the possibility of outbreak of new crown pneumonia caused by flood and waterlogging is low. The new crown virus of frozen shrimp packaging in Pingxiang, Jiangxi Province was positive. The new crown is positive in some packages of frozen white shrimp from South America in Chongqing.
Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 23,016 / > 13.6143 million / 58 / 2318.
Who should be trusted when the White House and experts have conflicting epidemic information? Fauci: trust me. Opinion polls show that during the pandemic, the public trusted infectious disease expert Fauci far more than Trump.
Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 74770 / > 3.617 million / 14pr 0150.
Note: it is not surprising that the US Empire is increasing by 100000 every day!
The intensity of domestic political division, transfer of domestic contradictions, stigma and attack on great China is highly positively related to the epidemic bean bank. Ha!
Serious countries and regions.
1. Brazil: > 1.9709 million / 50278 gray 7recover5523.
2. India: > 970500 / 26543max 2jue 4935.
3. Russia: > 746300 / 6422amp 11770.
4. Mexico: > 317600 / 7051 Compact 3gamma 6906.
5. UK: > 291900 / 1778 Universe 4pm 5053.
6. South Africa: > 311000 / 10496 Universe 4453.
7. Peru: > 337700 / 3744amp 12417.
8. Chile: > 321200 / 1712 Compact 7186.
9. Iran: > 264500 / 2388 Compact 13410.
10. Baccartan: > 257900 / 2165 Comp5426.
11. Saudi Arabia: > 240400 / 2671 Compact 2325.
13. Bangladesh: > 193500 / 3533amp 2457.
14. Columbia: > 159800 / 3832amp 5625.
15. Argentina: > 111100 / 3645amp 2050.
< 2 > Today's current playback
1. Today, the overall price of steel spot market is stable, rising and falling. Tangshan area rebounded slightly 10: 20 yuan / ton, most areas are stable, a few areas decline 10: 20 yuan / ton (mainly in East China). Although the stock market and commodities have plummeted, spot prices are highly resilient.
Transaction situation: it is the same as yesterday, the overall deviation.
Market mentality: low price mentality is OK.
Tangshan billet uplink 10 to 3410 yuan / ton.
Raw material end:
The price of scrap steel market is rising steadily. Fujian Sangang:
From 00:00 on July 17, 2020, the taxable prices of three grades of broken materials, other grades of scrap and heavy scrap will be increased by 40 yuan / ton and 30 yuan / ton, respectively. After adjustment, the taxable price of heavy scrap is 2720 yuan / ton.
Coke: the second round of lifting and lowering 50 yuan / ton basically landed on the ground.
The price of main coking coal remains stable.
Iron ore port spot prices are generally stable, trading is weak.
For details, see SMM Nonferrous Network: [daily Review of Iron Ore Market]
Today, Liantie is weak in finishing, and the bargaining space of some merchants in the port spot market has expanded slightly; most steel enterprises have completed weekly purchases, and the overall transaction is not good today. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area is 835mur840 yuan / ton, and that of PB powder in Tangshan area is about 840 yuan / ton. The overall price is mixed. In the mainstream, the trading of mineral products is still good, the price difference between the spot high and middle products in the port continues to narrow, while the price gap between the medium and low products continues to widen at the same time. On the one hand, due to the low commodity inventory in the mainstream, the price increase is large; on the other hand, the recent accumulation of high and low mineral inventory in the port has limited the price increase of high and low varieties. Driven by the demand side in the short term, medium-grade ore inventory may remain low, and the low-to-medium price gap may continue to expand.
RB2010 main contract: within the day between 3743 to 3691 concussion downside, closing at 3703.
HC2010 main contract: within the day between 3775 to 3727 concussion downside, closing at 3735.
Iron ore i2009 main contract: the day fluctuated between 839.5 and 820, closing at 826.5.
Coke J2009 main contract: shock uplink between 1870 and 1915.5 within the day, closing at 1902.
Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1188.5 to 1210 strong shock, closing 1202.
< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:
1. Spot aspect: maintain strong operation.
RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3690 and 3780
HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3720 and 3800
I2009 main contract: concussion between 820 and 855.
J2009 main contract: concussion between 1880 and 1930
JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1180 and 1230
3. Spot operation suggestion: remove the inventory at every high price and replenish the inventory at every low price.
4. Futures operation suggestion
Thread, hot coil: the main rolling operation is to maintain high throwing and low suction in the range.
Iron ore: the main thing is to do more than bargain in the range, and more than one effective fall below 820 to stop the profit to leave the market.
Coke: short-term high selling low multi-operation, multi-single effective fall below 1880 stop loss, empty single effective break through 1950 stop loss. Fast in and out.
Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market.
RB2010 main contract: support level 3670, pressure level 3780, 3800.
HC2010 main contract: support level 3710, pressure level 3800, 3820.
I2009 main contract: support level 820, pressure level 850.
J2009 main contract: support 1880, pressure 1930.
JM2005 main contract: support level 1180, pressure level 1230.
< 4 > Information and heart words.
1. Today's heavyweight macro data sunrise and interpretation
[national Bureau of Statistics: GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020 3.2% economic growth in the second quarter from negative to positive] preliminary calculation, the first half of the GDP 45.6614 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, the first half of # GDP fell 1.6% compared with the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, it fell 6.8% in the first quarter from the same period last year, and increased by 3.2% in the second quarter. On a month-on-month basis, GDP grew by 11.5% in the second quarter.
[national Bureau of Statistics: national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) fell by 3.1% from January to June 2020]
From January to June, national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) totaled 28.1603 trillion yuan, down 3.1 percent from the same period last year, or 3.2 percentage points lower than in January-May. Of this total, private investment in fixed assets totaled 15.7867 trillion yuan, down 7.3 percent, or 2.3 percentage points. In terms of month-on-month speed, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 5.91% in June.
[national Bureau of Statistics: the area of new real estate construction decreased by 7.6% from January to June]
From January to June, national investment in real estate development totaled 6.278 trillion yuan, up 1.9 percent from the same period last year and down 0.3 percent from January to May. Of this total, residential investment totaled 4.635 trillion yuan, up 2.6 percent, or 2.6 percentage points higher than in January-May.
From January to June, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 7.92721 billion square meters, an increase of 2.6 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of January-May. Of this total, the residential construction area was 5.58776 billion square meters, an increase of 3.8%. The area of new housing starts was 975.36 million square meters, down 7.6 percent, or 5.2 percentage points. Of this total, the new housing construction area was 715.83 million square meters, down 8.2%. The area of houses completed was 290.3 million square meters, down 10.5 percent, or 0.8 percentage points. Of this total, the completed residential area was 206.8 million square meters, down 9.8%.
From January to June, the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises was 79.65 million square meters, down 0.9 percent from the same period last year, which was 7.2 percentage points lower than that in January-May. The transaction price of land was 403.6 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9 percent, and the growth rate dropped 1.2 percentage points.
In June, the real estate development climate index (referred to as the "National Housing Prosperity Index") was 99.85, an increase of 0.50 points over May.
[national Bureau of Statistics: national real estate development investment grew 1.9% year on year from January to June] from January to June, national real estate development investment totaled 6.278 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.9% over the same period last year, and a decrease of 0.3% from January to May. Of this total, residential investment totaled 4.635 trillion yuan, up 2.6 percent, or 2.6 percentage points higher than in January-May.
[national Bureau of Statistics: infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) fell 2.7% year-on-year, 3.6 percentage points lower than in January-May]
[raw coal production fell 1.2% in June compared with the same period last year] National Bureau of Statistics: in June, raw coal production was 330 million tons, down 1.2% from the same period last year, an increase of 1.1% over the previous month; the average daily output was 11.14 million tons, an increase of 860000 tons compared with the previous month. In the first half of the year, raw coal production was 1.81 billion tons, an increase of 0.6% over the same period last year and a decline of 0.5% in the first quarter In June, coal imports were 25.29 million tons, up 3.23 million tons from the previous month, down 6.7 percent from the same period last year. In the first half of the year, coal imports were 174 million tons, up 12.7 percent from the same period last year, down 15.7 percent from the first quarter.
[China's crude steel output increased 4.5 per cent in June compared with the same period last year] according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel, pig iron and steel production in June were 91.58 million tons, 76.64 million tons and 115.85 million tons respectively, up 4.5 per cent, 4.1 per cent and 7.5 per cent respectively from January to June, and by 1.4 per cent from January to June. Pig iron production in January-June was 432.68 million tons, an increase of 2.2 per cent over the same period last year. Steel output from January to June was 605.84 million tons, an increase of 2.7 percent over the same period last year.
The average daily output is 3.053 million tons of crude steel, 2.555 million tons of pig iron and 3.862 million tons of steel.
Interpretation: GDP growth of 3.2% in the second quarter far exceeded market expectations, and the policy stimulus has achieved remarkable results. The author interprets the bearish: wide monetary policy is likely to enter the window of the observation period!
The growth rate of new real estate construction area narrowed by 5.2 per cent to minus 7.6 per cent. The market interprets the negative! The author interprets Lido: the author is optimistic about the demand only to rush to work, which further proves the logic deduction of the former support of the author. In other words, the demand for real estate construction is still on the way, and the short-term disturbance is only in the flood season.
2. [Jiao Lian? Market express] all coke ovens with a height of 4.3 meters in Hebei province will be shut down by the end of 2020. At present, most of the coke enterprises in Tangshan, Handan and Shijiazhuang have received relevant notices, and the coking capacity of 18 coking enterprises is expected to be shut down by the end of the year.
3. Baltic dry bulk Index: down 2.64% to 1696 points.
4. China Meteorological Administration: the rainstorm in the Yangtze River Basin this year is weaker than that in 1998. A new round of rainfall has entered the strongest period: the Yangtze River may have a "compound flood peak".
5. Sunrise interpretation of inventory data
The output of the five major varieties peaked for the third week in a row, falling slightly by 20300 tons to 10.8018 million tons this week. Among them, rebar output decreased by 54700 tons to 3.8296 million tons for the second week in a row, while hot rolling increased by 42900 tons to 3.2557 million tons.
The total inventory of the five major varieties continued for the fourth week, with an increase of 153800 tons to 21.6346 million tons. Among them, the rebar warehouse for the fifth consecutive week, the total inventory increased by 137500 tons to 11.7213 million tons, and hot rolling increased by 132900 tons to 3.7687 million tons.
The warehouse of the five major variety factories decreased by 145500 tons to 6.2778 million tons. Among them, the rebar factory warehouse decreased by 107000 tons to 3.3061 million tons, and the hot rolling mill warehouse increased by 46800 tons to 1.0779 million tons.
The social bank of the five major varieties increased by 299300 tons to 15.3568 million tons. Among them, the rebar warehouse increased by 244500 tons to 8.4152 million tons, and the hot rolling warehouse increased by 86100 tons to 2.6908 million tons.
See Table 1 for details.
The total output of the five major varieties continued to peak in stages and fell back as expected. Among them, the decrease of rebar is more obvious, which further proves that the output of 4 million tons per week is in the peak area, and the hot metal of blast furnace can be turned to hot coil at the same time.
The apparent demand of the five major varieties has expanded compared with that of last week, and the overall demand is resilient. Among them, the demand for building materials is greatly affected by the weather, and the rain in July is higher than expected, but the apparent demand is still not bad.
The inventory pressure of steel mills has been further alleviated. The price of superimposed stone coke is towering, the cost support is strengthened, and the driving force for the rise of steel mills is enhanced.
The increase in social inventory is mainly the result of the rain in the south of the Yangtze River and the low-cost replenishment of inventory by the foresight, so that there is no need for red rain to wash the cheeks.
Overall interpretation: pessimism is less than market expectations, in line with the author's expectations, slightly more neutral.
6. Shijiao's point of view remains unchanged: it is still bullish in the medium term.
The poor performance of the black department today is mainly due to the explosion of the stock market and the mood of funds. On the contrary, the author thinks that it is a good opportunity for Budo.
Iron ore bargain Buduo 01 contract is a priority, deep discount 170.
The fundamentals of coke are safe and sound, only because the profit per ton of steel is higher than that of steel mills, which annoys the steel mills; looking back, the fundamentals are healthier: first, the capacity can be eliminated by the end of 2020; second, the high demand continues to expand. In the second half of the year, the net new production capacity of steel mills for "energy exchange" is about 15 million tons (including independent electric arc furnaces), so there is no way to worry about the United States.
In a word, the author still holds a cautiously optimistic view on the black system as a whole.
7. Pay attention to the environmental protection and production restriction in Tangshan area and then go away. No, no.
With Wednesday's heart words
In terms of fundamentals, the probability of a sharp rebound in spot stock before the end of the flood season is small, the impact of flood season on demand can not be ignored; a large return of spot stock in flood season is also unrealistic, and the expected demand return period is more timed, with inventory support and cost support. From the perspective of Futures Steel, take the three types of brands in Shanghai as an example, the main futures RB2010 contract has risen to about 60 yuan / ton. According to the national average spot price, the main contract of futures RB2010 only discounts 40 yuan / ton. Therefore, despite strong expectations, we still have to wait for spot guidance. Today's futures are cautious, mainly due to tomorrow's heavyweight data sunrise (GDP, real estate).
The view of iron ore remains unchanged.
Coke spot market sentiment is short in the near future, affecting the height of coke rebound, short-term mood still exists. In the medium term, the author is still optimistic about the rebound space of coke.
Following the sunrise of inventory data tomorrow afternoon, production is expected to decline slightly, factory inventory will continue to decline, and social inventory will increase slightly.
With Tuesday's heart words
Today, Qiang expects the story to continue, and the protagonists are still "GDP" and "the growth rate of new real estate construction area". The author believes that if the growth rate of GDP exceeds expectations, it will be interpreted as bad, and loose monetary policy will probably enter the observation period. The growth rate of new real estate construction is an important leading indicator for the choice of steel direction! We should pay close attention to it. At present, the multi-empty life and death festival is whether the demand will return strongly after the end of the southern flood season; if it fails to return on time, the rebound will end; otherwise, the rebound will carry on the past and forge ahead into the future. No, no. In the areas where the disturbance of the flood season ends, such as Guangzhou in South China, the demand return period should be a high probability event! As for the so-called high temperature affecting demand, it is a short night road whistle! There is no substantial change in the spot static fundamentals, the only change is that the cost support is slightly strengthened, and it is certain that the flood season will have a certain impact on demand.
High domestic demand for iron ore is unscathed, withdrawing with the off-season, the expected demand is even higher! The supply-side hard core is still the development of the epidemic in Brazil. No, no.
The fundamentals of coke are still intact, and the original crime is still caused by the habitual thinking of steel mills that "bully the soft and fear the hard". Today, I heard that a small number of steel mills started the second round of 50 yuan / ton reduction, and coke enterprises said nothing. Paying attention to the results of the steel coke game, the author believes that even if it hits the ground, the future coke surface has fully reflected the expectation of 3-4 rounds of lifting and lowering. Therefore, choosing more machines is still a priority.
Keep an eye on the macro data sunrise this week.
With Monday's heart words
1. Today, Qiang is expected to further strengthen, stocks and commodities continue to sing! Futures rebar, hot coil, and iron ore have rebounded to a new high, but the spot rebound has been lower than that of futures, and the basis continues to converge, resulting in sustained losses in current arbitrage big steel trade, such as the Hangzhou market in East China once this batch of steel traders stop losses. Hangzhou market de-stocking will be accelerated, regaining the dominant market position in the south. Although the rebound in the general direction is still on the way. No, no. However, short-term inventory and flood season will still suppress the rebound, while strong expectations will have a greater impact on the spot once the tide ebbs. Therefore, the spot short-rhythm operation still recommends that it is hard to cash profits every high, and then gradually replenish inventory when turning back; between 3780 and 3820 of the main contract of Futures Steel RB2010, it is recommended to make more profits and leave the market, and short-rhythm empty orders and light positions are involved in making mistakes, and then make more orders when the tracks are in place. For the rest of the short-rhythm viewpoints, please see the Weekly Review and do not repeat them.
The current point of iron ore remains unchanged. There is a high probability of forcing the sky in recent months.
It is rumored that the coke market is going up and down in the second round, please think with your head!
As far as the raw materials are concerned, the off-season will come to an end.
In short, the author's point of view remains unchanged.
2. Pay attention to the sunrise of GDP and real estate data.
With Zhou's comments
1. The market operation next week is mainly affected by the sunrise of macroeconomic data, especially the growth rate of new real estate starts and weather factors. After the shock of the 3700 platform of Fuzhou Iron and Steel Company, the choice of direction mainly depends on the real estate data. Pay attention to the sunrise of real estate data. The author's short-paced point of view: go down first and then rise next week, turning point next Wednesday.
2. Deduction of the change of inventory data in the later period (see table for details)
Since June, the average weekly total output of the five major varieties is 10.9278 million tons, and the apparent demand is 10.947 million tons. Among them, the average weekly output of rebar is 3.9661 million tons and the apparent demand is 3.882 million tons. In other words, rebar is the weakest among the five major varieties. assuming that the rain in the south of the Yangtze River ends after July 20, the average weekly output of rebar is 4 million tons (overestimated), and the apparent demand is calculated as 4.5 million tons, then after the middle of July, the speed of going to the warehouse will be 500000 tons. It is expected to reach the inventory level of the same period last year after mid-August. Rebar is the weakest, and there is no need to feel sorry for other varieties. Of course, if the apparent demand does not expand after the end of the rain, the price turning downward is basically established.
3. Raw material side
Scrap resources in the second half of the year is still a tight balance judgment, short-term affected by the flood season acquisition, scrap prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall, independent arc furnace two-dimensional extrusion continues.
The view of iron ore remains unchanged.
There is no essential change in high domestic demand, and the disturbance of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan area is limited, not to mention that the implementation of environmental protection production restrictions on plum blossom in Tangshan area is not as strict as the documents. The core of the supply-side disturbance is still the Brazilian epidemic, Vale is determined to be unable to maintain the annual target of 3.1-330 million tons, and the weather disturbance of Australian kangaroo shipments is on the brink.
The first round of coke lifting and lowering, rather than saying that the inventory of steel enterprises is too neutral, it is still due to bullying the soft and afraid of hard inertia thinking. The fundamentals of coke supply and demand are healthy and sound, and the coke surface has been lifted and lowered for three rounds. I only feel that the sky is routed, and I want to save Yuan with my bare hands.
4. Pay attention to the sunrise of macroeconomic data.
Market outlook for July: for details, see the monthly Review of June 25.