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[SMM current Review] the flood season will be tied up, and the steel will be able to cross at last.
Jul 15,2020 18:34CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

(15 July)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe death / 621Unix 1988110Compact 3Accord 4649.


Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 19pje 2820 / > 13.3792 million / 57pr 6741.


American epidemiologist Fauci: the government has turned a deaf ear to the warning and has not seen any sign of the end of the epidemic in the United States.

Us media: the White House collects black materials to try to discredit Fauci.

Us media: Trump lied more than 20,000 times in his three and a half years in office.


Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 54554 / > 3.5452 million / 13pj9145.


Serious countries and regions.

2. Brazil: > 1.9312 million / 22713 Universe 7pm 4262.

3. India: > 937800 / 34770 prime 2jol 4327.

4. Russia: > 739900 / 6248Compact 11614.

5. UK: > 291300 / 0bat 4001 4968.

5. South Africa: > 298200 / 11554 Universe 4346.

6. Peru: > 333800 / 3797 Universe 12229.

7. Mexico: > 311400 / 4685 Compact 3pr 6327.

8. Chile: > 319400 / 1836 Compact 70269.

9. Iran: > 262100 / 2521 Compact 13211.

10. Baccartan: > 255700 / 1979. 5386.

11. Saudi Arabia: > 237800 / 2692 2283.

13. Bangladesh: > 190000 / 3163 Universe 2424.

14. Columbia: > 159800 / 3832amp 5625.

15. Argentina: > 106900 / 3099 Compact 1968.


< 2 > Today's current playback

1. Today, the spot market price of steel is stable as a whole. Beijing is strong in the morning and weak in the afternoon; in the heavy rain in Hangzhou and Shanghai in East China, the first-class brands are stable and the third-class brands have fallen slightly. The boat was released more steadily in the afternoon than it was yesterday.

Transaction status: poor.

Market mentality: low price mentality is stable, high price mentality is unstable.

The billet in Tangshan area is stable to 3400 yuan / ton.


Raw material end:

The market price of scrap steel remains stable.

Coke: the second round up and down 50 yuan / ton, some areas hit the ground. The steel coke game is still in progress.

The price of main coking coal is weak and stable.

The spot price of iron ore port is generally stable, 61% of the grade is strong, and the transaction is general.

For details, see SMM Nonferrous Network: [iron ore market daily summary review] this morning even iron is weak in the afternoon, and the port spot market is mainly stable in early trading; in the afternoon, with the market rising, some merchants' bargaining space narrowed, and the overall transaction price went up and down. The transaction of PB powder in Shandong area is about 835 yuan / ton, and that in Tangshan is about 845 yuan / ton. Today, some steel enterprises purchase on demand, and the overall transaction is mediocre. Individual steel enterprises have recently slightly increased the procurement of some varieties, and the inventory in the plant has increased slightly. From the perspective of transaction varieties, the mainstream demand for medium and low products is still good. In addition, due to the recent accumulation of lump ore inventory in the port, lump ore prices continue to fall, the price gap of port PB powder has narrowed to about 40 yuan / ton, and some steel enterprises have improved their low-price purchases. Short-term port total inventory continues to accumulate, but the shortage of mainstream medium-and low-quality resources has not been alleviated, some businesses have a good attitude towards price, but some businesses are relatively cautious, mainly cashing in profits. Most steel mills purchase on demand, and the recent profits are compressed by raw materials, the overall enthusiasm for taking goods is not high, transaction or difficult to see volume. [SMM Steel]


2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: within the day between 3720 to 3762 strong shock, closing 3746.

HC2010 main contract: shock uplink between 3742 and 3788 within the day, closing at 3773.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: the bottom rebounded between 824.5 and 843.5 within the day, strong shock, closing at the end of 837.

Coke J2009 main contract: within the day between 1890 to 1912 horizontal concussion, closing 1895.5.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1211 to 1193.5 weak shock, closing 1195.5.


< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot: the concussion may increase.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3710 and 3800

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3730 and 3820

I2009 main contract: concussion between 820 and 855.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1880 and 1930

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1180 and 1230


3. Spot operation suggestion: remove the inventory at every high price and replenish the inventory at every low price.

4. Futures operation suggestion

Thread, hot coil: the main rolling operation is to maintain high throwing and low suction in the range.

Iron ore: the main thing is to do more than bargain in the range, and more than one effective fall below 820 to stop the profit to leave the market.

Coke: high altitude and low multi-operation is the main operation in the short-term range, the multi-order effectively falls below 1880 stop loss, and the empty single effectively breaks through 1950 stop loss. Fast in and out.

Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3710, pressure level 3780, 3800.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3710, pressure level 3800, 3820.

I2009 main contract: support level 825, pressure level 850.

J2009 main contract: support 1880, pressure 1930.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1180, pressure level 1230.


< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. 150 major water conservancy projects focus on flood control and drought relief with a total investment of 1.29 trillion yuan and a prying investment of 6.6 trillion yuan.

The State Council New Affairs Office held a regular briefing on the policy of the State Council, which sent a clear signal of increasing the speed of major water conservancy projects: it will arrange 150 major water conservancy projects, with a total investment of about 1.29 trillion yuan, which can lead to direct and indirect investment of about 6.6 trillion yuan.


2. General Administration of Customs: China's foreign trade import and export in the first half of this year is better than expected

According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, the total value of imports and exports of goods in China was 14.24 trillion yuan, down 3.2 percent from the same period last year, or 1.7 percentage points lower than in the previous five months. Of this total, exports totaled 7.71 trillion yuan, down 3 percent, while imports totaled 6.53 trillion yuan, down 3.3 percent.

In the first half of the year, foreign trade imports and exports were better than expected, and both exports and imports achieved positive growth in June. From a quarterly point of view, imports and exports stabilized somewhat in the second quarter after experiencing shocks in the first quarter. In the second quarter of this year, China's foreign trade imports and exports totaled 7.67 trillion yuan, down 0.2 percent from the same period last year, or 6.3 percentage points lower than in the first quarter.

General Administration of Customs: in the first half of the year, China imported 269 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 9.9 percent over the same period last year, 174 million tons of coal, up 12.7 percent, and 547 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 9.6 percent over the same period last year.

3. Baltic dry bulk Index: down 2.79% to 1742 points.

4. [Egang released the latest building materials price adjustment policy] Egang released the latest building materials ex-factory price adjustment information, the specific adjustments are as follows: 1. The listing price of Pugao line has been increased by 80 yuan per ton, and the ex-factory price of Φ 8mmHPB300 of high-speed line is now 3890 yuan / ton. 2. The listing price of rebar is increased by 60 yuan / ton, and the ex-factory price of rebar 18-22mmHRB400E is 3780 yuan / ton. 3. The price of snails has been raised by 80 yuan per ton, and now the price of Φ 8mmHRB400E snails is 4010 yuan per ton. 4. The price of Gu Yuan has been raised by 50 yuan per ton, and now the price of Φ 25mmHPB300 round steel is 4100 yuan per ton. [SMM Steel]

5, [July 9-July 15 Guangzhou building materials social inventory expansion-0.03% thread inventory-2.86%] this week, Guangzhou building materials total inventory 1.4689 million tons, down 500 tons (- 0.03%), + 36.3% year-on-year. Among them, thread inventory was 961100 tons, down 28300 tons (- 2.86%) from the previous month, + 51.14% compared with the same period last year; reel inventory was 507800 tons, an increase of 27800 tons (+ 5.79%) compared with the same period last year, and + 14.94% from the same period last year. Recently, Guangzhou has basically got rid of the interference of heavy precipitation weather, terminal demand has begun to replenish the volume, and the shipping situation of merchants has improved significantly, resulting in a continuous decline in local total inventory for three consecutive weeks, and market sentiment continues to improve. However, after the precipitation, there are some hoarded "rusty" resources in the market, which is relatively difficult to ship, which is an important factor leading to the slowdown of warehouse reduction this week. [SMM Steel]


6. In terms of fundamentals, the probability of a sharp rebound in spot stock before the end of the flood season is small, and the impact on demand in the flood season can not be ignored; it is not realistic to make a substantial return to the spot in the flood season, and the expected demand return period is more timed, with inventory support and cost support at every low price. From the perspective of Futures Steel, take the three types of brands in Shanghai as an example, the main futures RB2010 contract has risen to about 60 yuan / ton. According to the national average spot price, the main contract of futures RB2010 only discounts 40 yuan / ton. Therefore, despite strong expectations, we still have to wait for spot guidance. Today's futures are cautious, mainly due to tomorrow's heavyweight data sunrise (GDP, real estate).


The view of iron ore remains unchanged.

Coke spot market sentiment is short in the near future, affecting the height of coke rebound, short-term mood still exists. In the medium term, the author is still optimistic about the rebound space of coke.


7. pay attention to the sunrise of inventory data tomorrow afternoon. It is expected that production will decline slightly, factory inventory will continue to decline, and social inventory will increase slightly.


With Tuesday's heart words

Today, Qiang expects the story to continue, and the protagonists are still "GDP" and "the growth rate of new real estate construction area". The author believes that if the growth rate of GDP exceeds expectations, it will be interpreted as bad, and loose monetary policy will probably enter the observation period. The growth rate of new real estate construction is an important leading indicator for the choice of steel direction! We should pay close attention to it. At present, the multi-empty life and death festival is whether the demand will return strongly after the end of the southern flood season; if it fails to return on time, the rebound will end; otherwise, the rebound will carry on the past and forge ahead into the future. No, no. In the areas where the disturbance of the flood season ends, such as Guangzhou in South China, the demand return period should be a high probability event! As for the so-called high temperature affecting demand, it is a short night road whistle! There is no substantial change in the spot static fundamentals, the only change is that the cost support is slightly strengthened, and it is certain that the flood season will have a certain impact on demand.


High domestic demand for iron ore is unscathed, withdrawing with the off-season, the expected demand is even higher! The supply-side hard core is still the development of the epidemic in Brazil. No, no.


The fundamentals of coke are still intact, and the original crime is still caused by the habitual thinking of steel mills that "bully the soft and fear the hard". Today, I heard that a small number of steel mills started the second round of 50 yuan / ton reduction, and coke enterprises said nothing. Paying attention to the results of the steel coke game, the author believes that even if it hits the ground, the future coke surface has fully reflected the expectation of 3-4 rounds of lifting and lowering. Therefore, choosing more machines is still a priority.


Keep an eye on the macro data sunrise this week.


With Monday's heart words

1. Today, Qiang is expected to further strengthen, stocks and commodities continue to sing! Futures rebar, hot coil, and iron ore have rebounded to a new high, but the spot rebound has been lower than that of futures, and the basis continues to converge, resulting in sustained losses in current arbitrage big steel trade, such as the Hangzhou market in East China once this batch of steel traders stop losses. Hangzhou market de-stocking will be accelerated, regaining the dominant market position in the south. Although the rebound in the general direction is still on the way. No, no. However, short-term inventory and flood season will still suppress the rebound, while strong expectations will have a greater impact on the spot once the tide ebbs. Therefore, the spot short-rhythm operation still recommends that it is hard to cash profits every high, and then gradually replenish inventory when turning back; between 3780 and 3820 of the main contract of Futures Steel RB2010, it is recommended to make more profits and leave the market, and short-rhythm empty orders and light positions are involved in making mistakes, and then make more orders when the tracks are in place. For the rest of the short-rhythm viewpoints, please see the Weekly Review and do not repeat them.


The current point of iron ore remains unchanged. There is a high probability of forcing the sky in recent months.


It is rumored that the coke market is going up and down in the second round, please think with your head!

As far as the raw materials are concerned, the off-season will come to an end.

In short, the author's point of view remains unchanged.


2. Pay attention to the sunrise of GDP and real estate data.


With Zhou's comments

1. The market operation next week is mainly affected by the sunrise of macroeconomic data, especially the growth rate of new real estate starts and weather factors. After the shock of the 3700 platform of Fuzhou Iron and Steel Company, the choice of direction mainly depends on the real estate data. Pay attention to the sunrise of real estate data. The author's short-paced point of view: go down first and then rise next week, turning point next Wednesday.


2. Deduction of the change of inventory data in the later period (see table for details)

Since June, the average weekly total output of the five major varieties is 10.9278 million tons, and the apparent demand is 10.947 million tons. Among them, the average weekly output of rebar is 3.9661 million tons and the apparent demand is 3.882 million tons. In other words, rebar is the weakest among the five major varieties. assuming that the rain in the south of the Yangtze River ends after July 20, the average weekly output of rebar is 4 million tons (overestimated), and the apparent demand is calculated as 4.5 million tons, then after the middle of July, the speed of going to the warehouse will be 500000 tons. It is expected to reach the inventory level of the same period last year after mid-August. Rebar is the weakest, and there is no need to feel sorry for other varieties. Of course, if the apparent demand does not expand after the end of the rain, the price turning downward is basically established.

3. Raw material side

Scrap resources in the second half of the year is still a tight balance judgment, short-term affected by the flood season acquisition, scrap prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall, independent arc furnace two-dimensional extrusion continues.

The view of iron ore remains unchanged.

There is no essential change in high domestic demand, and the disturbance of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan area is limited, not to mention that the implementation of environmental protection production restrictions on plum blossom in Tangshan area is not as strict as the documents. The core of the supply-side disturbance is still the Brazilian epidemic, Vale is determined to be unable to maintain the annual target of 3.1-330 million tons, and the weather disturbance of Australian kangaroo shipments is on the brink.

The first round of coke lifting and lowering, rather than saying that the inventory of steel enterprises is too neutral, it is still due to bullying the soft and afraid of hard inertia thinking. The fundamentals of coke supply and demand are healthy and sound, and the coke surface has been lifted and lowered for three rounds. I only feel that the sky is routed, and I want to save Yuan with my bare hands.

4. Pay attention to the sunrise of macroeconomic data.


Market outlook for July: for details, see the monthly Review of June 25.




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