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[SMM current Daily Review] Yan Xin Shuang fell into the west building, demanding beauty Shu Umbrella dance.
Jul 14,2020 19:00CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

In the summer season, Shuangshuang fell into the west building, demanding beauty Shu Umbrella Dance (July 14)


< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / critical count death / 645swap 1982 Universe 110Accord 3Accord 4649 (11).


Zhang Wenhong: China has entered the new normal of "dynamic zero clearance" and can return to normal life. Wu Zunyou: even if the global epidemic aggravates in autumn and winter, China will not have the serious situation of Wuhan again.


Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 21jue 9148 / > 12.957387 million / 56jue 7045.


Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 54878 / > 3.4794 million / 13pr 8247.


Serious countries and regions.

2. Brazil: > 1.8879 million / 24049Universe 7recover2921.

3. India: > 908200 / 27181 gray 2gamma 3736.

4. Russia: > 739900 / 6537amp 11614.

5. UK: > 290100 / 530 Compact 4pm 4830.

5. South Africa: > 287700 / 12058amp 4172.

6. Peru: > 330100 / 3616Comp12054.

7. Mexico: > 304400 / 4482 Universe 3jue 5491.

8. Chile: > 317600 / 5628 Compact 7024.

9. Iran: > 259600 / 2349swap 13032.

10. Baccartan: > 253600 / 2753: 5320.

11. Saudi Arabia: > 235100 / 2852 Compact 2243.

13. Bangladesh: > 190000 / 3099Comp2424.

14. Columbia: > 154200 / 5083 Compact 5455.

15. Argentina: > 103200 / 2657amp 1903.


< 2 > Today's current playback

1. The overall price of steel in the spot market is mixed.

Guangzhou Cold Steel in South China rose 30 yuan / ton to 3950 yuan / ton, Zhengzhou and Chongqing rose 20 yuan / ton, Shagang in Hangzhou Market in East China decreased by 10 yuan / ton to 3680 yuan / ton, and Sangang in Fuzhou Market in East China fell by 10 yuan to 3760 yuan / ton. Most of the rest are stable.

Transaction situation: the transaction is greatly converged, but the overall situation is not bad.

Market mentality: the high price mentality is unstable.

The billet in Tangshan area is stable to 3400 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

The market price of scrap steel remains stable.

The coke is stable after lowering. Rizhao Iron and Steel, Hegang up and down 50 yuan / ton, coke enterprises do not speak. Coke enterprise inventory is low, individual steel enterprise inventory neutral, steel coke game intensified.

The price of main coking coal remains stable.

Iron ore port spot prices rose steadily, Shandong direction PB powder mine 838 yuan / ton transactions, Tangshan area PB powder mine 850 yuan / ton transactions, trading is not as good as yesterday.

For details, see SMM Nonferrous net [Daily Review of Iron Ore Market]:

Today, Liantie continues to be strong, the main contract I2009 hit a new high of 845 within the year; the port spot market early quotation continued to increase by 15 Mel 20 yuan / ton, but today the enthusiasm of steel mills to purchase goods is not high, and the price increase in the spot market has slowed down. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area is 835mur840 yuan / ton, and that of PB powder in Tangshan area is about 845 yuan / ton. According to SMM tracking data, a total of 91 ships arrived at eight major ports in China from 7.5 to 7.11, and the incoming cargo volume is expected to be 15.44 million tons, a decrease of 350000 tons compared with the previous period and 2.08 million tons less than the same period last year. The arrival of goods between Tangshan and Shandong continues to increase, and the demand of steel mills increases, superimposed trade and mineral resources increase. in this period, the arrival of goods from both ports exceeds 3 million tons, and the price gap between Tangshan and Shandong continues to narrow. During the period, Australia's outbound shipments fell 1.63 million tons from the previous month to 15.93 million tons, but increased by 1.75 million tons compared with the same period last year. Shipments fell slightly due to the overhaul of Port Hedland and Walcott in early July, but the proportion of Australian shipments to China has rebounded in this period. Brazil's current period of departure fell by 680000 tons to 6.22 million tons compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the maintenance of individual ports, but an increase of 530000 tons over the same period last year. The current period of iron ore shipments to Hong Kong and Australia and Pakistan have all declined, which still gives a certain boost to the iron ore market. [SMM Steel]

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: within the day between 3715 to 3754 strong shock, closing 3744.

HC2010 main contract: within the day between 3717 to 3756 strong shock, closing 3756.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: within the day between 823.5 and 845 shock upward, closing at 838.5.

Coke J2009 main contract: concussion downward between 1925.5 and 1885.5 within the day, closing at 1897.5.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1208 to 1195 concussion downside, closing 1198.


< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot aspect: early weak afternoon strong probability is big.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3710 and 3800

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3710 and 3800

I2009 main contract: concussion between 820 and 855.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1880 and 1930

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1180 and 1230

3. Spot operation suggestion: get rid of inventory in the right amount when there is a high price.

4. Futures operation suggestion

Thread, hot coil: the main rolling operation is to maintain high throwing and low suction in the range.

Iron ore: the main thing is to do more than bargain in the range, and more than one effective fall below 830 to stop the profit to leave the market.

Coke: in the range of activists, high-altitude, low-and multi-operation is the main, multi-single effective drop below 1880 stop-loss, empty single effective break-through 1950 stop-loss. Fast in and out.

Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3710, pressure level 3780, 3800.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3710, pressure level 3780, 3800.

I2009 main contract: support level 825, pressure level 850.

J2009 main contract: support 1880, pressure 1930.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1180, pressure level 1230.


< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council: presided over a forum of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs. The uncertainty of the international environment is still increasing, the situation is still grim, and the difficulties and challenges facing the domestic economy, especially the pressure on employment, are still very prominent, and we should be prepared to continue to fight an uphill battle. It is necessary to enhance the timeliness of the implementation of macro policies and strive to protect the main body of the market for employment and people's livelihood. We will adhere to and fully implement a proactive fiscal policy, a prudent monetary policy and a policy of giving priority to employment, so as to benefit enterprises by reducing taxes and fees on a larger scale. We will intensify reform and opening up, stimulate the vitality of the main body of the market, and stabilize the basic economic market.


2. [China's steel exports dropped by 30.3% in June compared with the same period last year] data from the General Administration of Customs on July 14, 2020 showed that China exported 3.701 million tons of steel in June 2020, a decrease of 699000 tons from the previous month, down 30.3% from January to June. China's steel exports totaled 28.704 million tons from January to June, down 16.5% from the same period last year. In June, China imported 1.878 million tons of steel, an increase of 598000 tons over the previous month, an increase of 99.8 percent over the same period last year. From January to June, China imported 7.343 million tons of steel, an increase of 26.1 percent over the same period last year.


3. Today, Qiang expects the story to continue, and the protagonists are still "GDP" and "the growth rate of new real estate construction area". The author believes that if the growth rate of GDP exceeds expectations, it will be interpreted as bad, and loose monetary policy will probably enter the observation period. The growth rate of new real estate construction is an important leading indicator for the choice of steel direction! We should pay close attention to it. At present, the multi-empty life and death festival is whether the demand will return strongly after the end of the southern flood season; if it fails to return on time, the rebound will end; otherwise, the rebound will carry on the past and forge ahead into the future. No, no. In the areas where the disturbance of the flood season ends, such as Guangzhou in South China, the demand return period should be a high probability event! As for the so-called high temperature affecting demand, it is a short night road whistle! There is no substantial change in the spot static fundamentals, the only change is that the cost support is slightly strengthened, and it is certain that the flood season will have a certain impact on demand.

High domestic demand for iron ore is unscathed, withdrawing with the off-season, the expected demand is even higher! The supply-side hard core is still the development of the epidemic in Brazil. No, no.

The fundamentals of coke are still intact, and the original crime is still caused by the habitual thinking of steel mills that "bully the soft and fear the hard". Today, I heard that a small number of steel mills started the second round of 50 yuan / ton reduction, and coke enterprises said nothing. Paying attention to the results of the steel coke game, the author believes that even if it hits the ground, the future coke surface has fully reflected the expectation of 3-4 rounds of lifting and lowering. Therefore, choosing more machines is still a priority.

4. Keep an eye on the macro data sunrise this week.


With Monday's heart words

1. Today, Qiang is expected to further strengthen, stocks and commodities continue to sing! Futures rebar, hot coil, and iron ore have rebounded to a new high, but the spot rebound has been lower than that of futures, and the basis continues to converge, resulting in sustained losses in current arbitrage big steel trade, such as the Hangzhou market in East China once this batch of steel traders stop losses. Hangzhou market de-stocking will be accelerated, regaining the dominant market position in the south. Although the rebound in the general direction is still on the way. No, no. However, short-term inventory and flood season will still suppress the rebound, while strong expectations will have a greater impact on the spot once the tide ebbs. Therefore, the spot short-rhythm operation still recommends that it is hard to cash profits every high, and then gradually replenish inventory when turning back; between 3780 and 3820 of the main contract of Futures Steel RB2010, it is recommended to make more profits and leave the market, and short-rhythm empty orders and light positions are involved in making mistakes, and then make more orders when the tracks are in place. For the rest of the short-rhythm viewpoints, please see the Weekly Review and do not repeat them.

The current point of iron ore remains unchanged. There is a high probability of forcing the sky in recent months.

It is rumored that the coke market is going up and down in the second round, please think with your head!

As far as the raw materials are concerned, the off-season will come to an end.

In short, the author's point of view remains unchanged.

2. Pay attention to the sunrise of GDP and real estate data.


With Zhou's comments

1. The market operation next week is mainly affected by the sunrise of macroeconomic data, especially the growth rate of new real estate starts and weather factors. After the shock of the 3700 platform of Fuzhou Iron and Steel Company, the choice of direction mainly depends on the real estate data. Pay attention to the sunrise of real estate data. The author's short-paced point of view: go down first and then rise next week, turning point next Wednesday.


2. Deduction of the change of inventory data in the later period (see table for details)

Since June, the average weekly total output of the five major varieties is 10.9278 million tons, and the apparent demand is 10.947 million tons. Among them, the average weekly output of rebar is 3.9661 million tons and the apparent demand is 3.882 million tons. In other words, rebar is the weakest among the five major varieties. assuming that the rain in the south of the Yangtze River ends after July 20, the average weekly output of rebar is 4 million tons (overestimated), and the apparent demand is calculated as 4.5 million tons, then after the middle of July, the speed of going to the warehouse will be 500000 tons. It is expected to reach the inventory level of the same period last year after mid-August. Rebar is the weakest, and there is no need to feel sorry for other varieties. Of course, if the apparent demand does not expand after the end of the rain, the price turning downward is basically established.

3. Raw material side

Scrap resources in the second half of the year is still a tight balance judgment, short-term affected by the flood season acquisition, scrap prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall, independent arc furnace two-dimensional extrusion continues.

The view of iron ore remains unchanged.

There is no essential change in high domestic demand, and the disturbance of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan area is limited, not to mention that the implementation of environmental protection production restrictions on plum blossom in Tangshan area is not as strict as the documents. The core of the supply-side disturbance is still the Brazilian epidemic, Vale is determined to be unable to maintain the annual target of 3.1-330 million tons, and the weather disturbance of Australian kangaroo shipments is on the brink.

The first round of coke lifting and lowering, rather than saying that the inventory of steel enterprises is too neutral, it is still due to bullying the soft and afraid of hard inertia thinking. The fundamentals of coke supply and demand are healthy and sound, and the coke surface has been lifted and lowered for three rounds. I only feel that the sky is routed, and I want to save Yuan with my bare hands.

4. Pay attention to the sunrise of macroeconomic data.


Market outlook for July: for details, see the monthly Review of June 25.




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