[SMM Review] at the end of the month, the beauty looks beautiful in the west building.

When the moon is full in the west building, the beauty opens her face.

(9 July)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe death / 511 swab / 1958 Universe 112tick / 4648.

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 21pi 1429 / > 12.086951 million / 54pr 7512.

Korean media: the new crown virus currently spreading in South Korea comes from Europe and the United States, and the virus is known to be six times more contagious than the strain that appeared in China.

Who acknowledges that the new crown virus can be airborne.

The United States withdraws from WHO and owes more than US $200 million in assessed contributions, giving priority to being naughty. The US House of Representatives called it self-destructive to withdraw from the WHO; Biden said he would return to the WHO on the day he was elected to take office.

The US Imperial epidemic Bean Bank has priority to pick up another level: more than 60,000 tons of new diagnosis have been made in a single day. Ha!

New / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 60882 / > 3.1589 million / 1354862.

Serious countries and regions.

2. Brazil: > 1.7161 million / 46372Universe 6recover8055.

3. India: > 769100 / 21115Universe 21151.

4. Russia: > 700900 / 6562 Compact 10667.

5. UK: > 286900 / 630 Universe 4pm 4517.

5. South Africa: > 224600 / 10134Compact 3602.

6. Peru: > 312900 / 3575 Compact 11133.

7. Mexico: > 275000 / 6258 Compact 3pm 2796.

8. Chile: > 303000 / 0swap 6573.

9. Iran: > 248300 / 2691 swap 12084.

10. Baccartan: > 240800 / 2980: 4983.

11. Saudi Arabia: > 220100 / 3036amp 2059.

13. Bangladesh: > 172100 / 3489 Compact 2197.

14. Columbia: > 128600 / 4213 Universe 4527.

15. Argentina: > 87000 / 2979Comp1694.

< 2 > Today's current playback

1. The overall strong rebound in the spot market price of steel continued, with an increase of 10 to 50 yuan per ton. East China Hangzhou and Shanghai rose 20 million yuan / ton, Hangzhou Shagang 3680 yuan 3690 yuan / ton, Shanghai Shagang 3600 yuan 3610 yuan / ton, Shanghai third and fourth brands 3510 yuan 3540 yuan / ton, Fuzhou No. 3 Steel rose 40 yuan to 3770 yuan / ton; Guangzhou Cold Steel rose 40 yuan to 3900 yuan / ton; Beijing Hegang steadily reached 3710 yuan 3720 yuan / ton.

Transaction: it is more convergent than yesterday, but it is OK.

Market mentality: low price positive, high price cautious host.

Tangshan billet uplink 20 to 3390 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

The market price of scrap steel remains stable.

Coke, the first round of 50 yuan / ton partial landing.

The price of main coking coal remains stable.

The spot price of iron ore port fluctuates above 800 yuan / ton today.

For details, see SMM Nonferrous net [Daily Review of Iron Ore Market]:

Today, even the railway concussion operation, the port spot market early quotation steady rise. Traders are active in shipping, but the quotation is relatively strong; some steel enterprises purchase on demand, and the overall turnover is lower than that of the previous two days. Shandong area PB powder turnover 800mur805 yuan / ton, Tangshan area PB powder transaction 815 yuan / ton, the overall transaction price is mixed compared with yesterday. Considering that some port inventories continue to accumulate month-on-month this week, iron ore prices continue to soar for the time being and lack of new impetus for the time being. However, considering that the production limit in Tangshan is lower than expected, and the overall demand of steel mills remains high, according to SMM, the level of more than 320000 tons in Tangshan is still maintained this week, so iron ore prices form a strong support, and short-term ore prices may maintain high shocks. In addition, according to the calculation of SMM model, the current long-process steel mill thread and hot coil profits have rebounded to 195,285 yuan / ton, respectively, or promote the demand for mainstream medium-and low-grade ore, thus continue to boost ore prices. [SMM Steel]

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: within the day between 3703 to 3743 strong shock, closing 3726.

HC2010 main contract: within the day between 3696 to 3738 strong shock, closing 3718.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: within the day between 782 to 800.5 strong shock, closing at 789.

Coke J2009 main contract: within the day between 1900.5 to 1921.5 horizontal concussion, closing 1907.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1196.5 to 1221 shock uplink, closing 1218.

< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot aspect: stable operation is the main.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3670 and 3760.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3660 and 3750.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 775 and 810.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1890 and 1950.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1180 and 1230.

3. Spot operation tips: the implementation of the author's recommendations, the low part of the appropriate amount of replenishment of inventory will continue to profit-taking.

4. Futures operation suggestion

Thread, hot coil: low multi-single hold, new multi-single interval high sell low suction rolling operation.

Iron ore: low multi-single holding, new multi-single interval high sell low suction rolling operation, more than a single fall below 760 stop loss.

Coke: the rolling operation of high selling and low suction is the main operation in the range of activists, the multi-order effectively falls below 1880 stop-loss, and the empty single effectively breaks through 1930 stop-loss. Fast in and out.

Coking coal: it is appropriate to wait and see, chicken rib market.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3670.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3660.

I2009 main contract: support level 760.

J2009 main contract: support level 1880, pressure level 1930, 1950.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1180, pressure level 1230.

< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. [China's CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in June PPI fell 3% year-on-year] the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in June, the national consumer price (CPI) rose 2.5% year-on-year, down 0.1% from the previous month; in June, the national industrial producer price (PPI) fell 3.0% year-on-year, up 0.4% from the previous month. Among them, pork prices rose by 81.6%, affecting CPI by about 2.05%; fresh fruit prices by 29.0%, affecting CPI by about 0.67%.

2. The State General Administration of Flood Control upgraded the emergency response of flood control to level III and sent 11 working groups to supervise the flood fighting. Chongqing Qijiang yesterday ushered in the fourth flood peak transit this summer. For the first time in 61 years since the completion of the Xin'anjiang Reservoir in Hangzhou, all nine holes were opened for flood discharge yesterday, and the peak is expected to be around 6 o'clock this morning. Since entering Mei, the total rainfall in Wuhan has reached 757.8 mm, ranking second in history.

3. Baltic dry bulk Index: down 5.13% to 1849 points.

4. Sunrise interpretation of inventory data

The output of the five major varieties peaked for the second week in a row, falling sharply this week by 238200 tons to 10.8221 million tons. Among them, rebar output fell by 123200 tons to 3.8843 million tons in the first week, and hot rolling decreased by 67800 tons to 3.2128 million tons.

The total inventory of the five major varieties continued for the third week, with an increase of 250600 tons to 21.4808 million tons. Among them, the rebar warehouse for the fourth consecutive week, the total inventory increased by 174800 tons to 11.5838 million tons, hot rolling increased by 73000 tons to 3.6358 million tons.

The warehouse of the five major variety factories dropped slightly by 33100 tons to 6.4233 million tons. Among them, the rebar warehouse decreased slightly by 22900 tons to 3.4131 million tons, and the hot rolling mill warehouse decreased slightly by 6100 tons to 1.0311 million tons.

The social bank of the five major varieties increased by 283700 tons to 15.0575 million tons. Among them, the rebar warehouse increased by 197700 tons to 8.1707 million tons, and the hot rolling warehouse increased by 79100 tons to 2.6047 million tons.

See Table 1 for details.

Interpretation:

The total output of the five major varieties peaked in stages and fell back as expected. Among them, the rebar decreased obviously, which proves that the output of 4 million tons per week is in the peak area.

Meiyu in the south, the impact of demand weakens again, and the overall demand is resilient.

The inventory pressure of steel mills has been alleviated. The continuation of the stock base of the social treasury, there are two main factors: one is the transfer of steel mills, and the other is the active increase of speculative demand.

The apparent demand for large varieties increased by 211200 tons to 10.5715 million tons on Friday. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 224300 tons to 3.7095 million tons. But the output is still larger than the apparent demand. At the end of the late rain, if the weekly apparent demand can reach about 4.5 million tons, the rebound height can still be expected.

Overall interpretation, pessimism is less than market expectations, in line with the author's expectations.

5, the current steel RB2010 main contract, the highest value of 3743, the author forward-looking deduction and realization (target position 3740). However, the spot rebound range of about 100 yuan / ton did not reach the target value of 200 ±50. Strong expectations are still on the way, while weak reality continues. The main disturbing factor of weak reality is that the rain in the south of the Yangtze River exceeded expectations, followed by many large steel traders in many areas to do future arbitrage, resulting in heavy losses, unwilling to cut meat, resulting in high inventory. Hangzhou market in East China is a typical case. Spot rebound so far, the author still suggests that the foresight to cash in profits as the best policy, and then replenish inventory when turning back. Period steel short rhythm enters the new high platform concussion probability is big, the later stage needs the real estate new construction area growth rate guidance! However, the author predicts that it can be expected.

Shi Jiao's point of view is the same as yesterday, and I will not repeat it.

Mineral catkins operation tips: an organization relies on knowing inventory fluctuations in advance for small-rhythm operation, which is commonly used in recent weeks, that is, high-frequency switching of positions on Thursday night. In other words, the fluctuation of iron ore inventory is a magic prop to deceive retail investors. For participation only.

With Wednesday's heart words

Today, the strong is expected to continue to strengthen, the weak to achieve further passivation. Chi Wu capital invaded the black system on a large scale, killing the "air force" in blood; at the same time, it casually burned off the traditional period of arbitrage. What does it mean to surround 3700 of Qigang without attacking?! The author believes that: first, the short-term cash base difference is small, waiting for the late arrival of the "army" spot. Second, this battle is destined to be a war of annihilation, and then lure the new air force into the field. Third, after breaking through 3700, even refusing to return to the normal track at 20: 40 points, the probability of non-industry funds entering the market is high.

The spot rebound is still slim, and worry is still the factor of Meiyu. From an overall point of view, the essence of demand is remarkable, and it basically comes to an end after the middle of the rain in the south of the Yangtze River. in other words, the short-term adverse demand return period includes rain, college entrance examination and high school entrance examination, and the demand return period is more expected in the later period, as evidenced by Guangzhou inventory data (once the weather disturbance ends, the demand return period starts). In the early stage, the so-called false proposition that demand peaked and fell back was further confirmed. Regional differentiation will continue before the end of the rain.

Strong expectations for a higher level of real estate start-up area growth rate (mid-sunrise) guidance, the author expects a surprise. In short, the demand for retaliatory return is certain.

Focus surface language, short-term basis repair and technical gap

The probability of compensation is high.

The view of iron ore remains unchanged: the nature of high domestic demand is intact, the fluctuation of inventory data only affects the small rhythm fluctuation of the future mine, and the supply-side hard core is still the development of the epidemic in Brazil. The rebound in the general direction is still on the way. Hope the Patriot will wake up.

Pay attention to the sunrise of inventory tomorrow afternoon, and it is expected that the output will continue to look back and destabilize the past and open up the future.

With Tuesday's heart words

Strong expectations are constantly strengthened, while weak reality is passivated.

In the early stage of weak realization of steel, the original sin is the rain in the south of the Yangtze River and the epidemic situation in Beijing. On this point, Tong knows that, so many fence riders in the market conclude that demand has peaked and the inflection point of steel prices has entered a downward cycle. No, no. The difficulty in judging the law of market operation lies in late deductive reasoning. The author has prospectively deduced (February tweet) that the value depression of Chinese stocks has become obvious, and there are epic investment opportunities. The recent performance of the stock market has or will continue to fulfill the author's point of view. Black line to this day, the market long and empty differences are still the same. The logic of the bears is simple: we can only see the rain in July superimposed high temperature weather and static inventory, static high production factors. The author looks at the steel price market in July, and the main logical thinking will not be repeated.

There are only three points to be emphasized today:

First, the macro environment continues to improve, the currency is overissued, and commodity prices need to be revalued.

Second, the production limit of environmental protection in Tangshan area has become more and more stringent recently, and the author's forward-looking judgment is being fulfilled.

Third, although the rain in the south of the Yangtze River has a great disturbance to demand, the daily high-frequency trading volume index is really not bad! Just imagine what would happen to steel prices without the influence of the rainy season. The author is confident about the resilience of demand in the second half of the year, and worry is part of the replacement of new capacity in the fourth quarter.

After all, the impact of short-term rain is local and the overall situation is intact, which is, of course, the main driving force of regional differentiation in the near future. Steel traders in each region should combine this factor to distinguish the operation of the spot. For example, whether the impact of rain in Wuhan is coming to an end, if so, it will be an opportunity to replenish inventory at every bargain, otherwise wait. For example, in the early stage of the Guangzhou market in South China, the author suggests using the price drop in typhoon weather to replenish the inventory, and the low price range is just in this period of time.

In terms of iron ore

Today, a big positive line will return all the ruts after the Dragon Boat Festival. Why? The main reason is that there is no substantial change in the fundamentals of high demand, only because of the anxiety of capital sentiment. The so-called drop in the operating rate of blast furnace has no harm to the demand for iron ore, of course, the environmental protection production restriction in Tangshan area is stricter, which has an impact on the reduction of iron ore demand, which needs to be paid attention to. The hard core on the iron ore supply side is still an epidemic in Brazil, and the epidemic in Brazil continues to worsen. How credible can Vale's target task of 310 million-330 million tons be achieved?

Coke

Although the seventh round of rise has not yet landed, the first round of lifting and lowering of steel mills is under way. , but the coke enterprise did not reply. The fundamentals of coke are still healthy, and the overall supply and demand is still in a tight balance! It's just the result of the distortion of the steel mill. The future focal plane (1842) has shown four rounds of lifting and lowering, with a discount of 200 yuan / ton. Coke demand end is the same as iron ore, do not repeat; different iron ore on the supply side, coke enterprise profits are high, production is of course high, the problem is that the overall implementation of capacity is good! There is no pressure on the inventory of coke enterprises. Steel coke game intensified, take it easy! It is hard to stop profit and loss in time.

With Monday's heart words

Although rain affects the continuation of demand, the demand is very resilient, and once the rain disturbance is over, the return period of demand can be expected later; the production limit of environmental protection in Tangshan area becomes stricter, and the output reaches its peak stage with a high probability of falling down; due to the small base difference, it is necessary to catch up with the spot, and the probability of running into strong shock in the short term is high (the rut space is limited). With the improvement of the macro environment, the stock market rebounded to a new high this year, and the cyclical bull market was characterized by a strong support for the bottom of the black system. The seasonal impact on the limited demand for stone coke is gradually drifting away, focusing on more opportunities in the distant month; the epidemic in Brazil is likely to worsen in the fourth quarter, especially in iron ore long-month contracts. In short, the author's point of view remains unchanged, macro direction, basic plane dimension, general direction rebound is still walking on the road …. No, no.

The heart comments of the week are attached.

In terms of finished products

The gap between strong expectation and weak realization is strengthened. Today's futures steel rose sharply, the spot rose slightly, and the cash spread converged sharply. Take the three types of brands in Shanghai as an example, the spot price of futures is more than 30 yuan / ton, and in the case of Shanghai Shagang brand, the spot discount of futures is less than 80 yuan / ton. The original sin is that the spot is more focused on the static reality, that is, the short-term output is high, the rain in the south affects demand, and the superimposed market "fortune-telling" disturbance. Normally speaking, Fuzhou Steel is the deduction of expectations, that is, the dynamic changes of industry output, demand and inventory. From the main road to the middle: macro direction, industry dimension. Whether the truth is put aside for the time being, but after N times of practice, at least there is a good chance of winning.

The main factors affecting the operation of the market next week include, but are not limited to:

First, parts of the south continue to rain, the impact of high-temperature weather is unharmed (the author has said, I will not repeat it).

Second, the examination of life (July 7, 8 college entrance examination) will affect the construction, but it is very limited.

Third, how big is the actual "rainfall" of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan area.

Fourth, whether the macro environment continues to strengthen, the author tends to think that we should not dream too much in the short term.

Fifth, to what extent the output converges, we should pay attention to the hot coil varieties of rebar blast furnace hot metal.

The sixth is the intensity of demand recovery in the areas where the rain is different from the sunny day.

Seventh, the problem of funds affects the life of the construction.

Raw material side.

Scrap: with the decrease of the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace and the decrease of the proportion of scrap addition in long process, the production capacity converges in stages, and the scrap price is still under short-term pressure.

In terms of coke: the fundamentals are still healthy, and coke enterprises are highly motivated to produce (unlimited nonsense). ), but the core is the low inventory of coke enterprises. It is said that the market thinks that the seventh round rise has peaked and fell back (I do not agree). At present, we are considering the delivery routine "moisture" at least 150 yuan / ton coke discount, that is to say, the disk price has already reflected three rounds of increase and decline, looking forward to the replacement of new production capacity (referring to crude steel output), long and short risks and opportunities should be measured!

Iron ore: production restrictions on environmental protection in Tangshan area will of course have a negative impact on iron ore demand, the author believes that no matter how the impact will not hurt the overall situation, the overall situation of high demand is not only unharmed but also higher. The supply-side hard core is still the epidemic of mining countries exported to China, such as Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa and so on. Short-term inventory fluctuations should not be too troublesome, containing too much "water". No, no. In short, iron ore short-term recovery space is very limited, hope more empty and go and cherish.

In short, the author's point of view remains unchanged: the general rebound is still on the way. No, no. There are only many battles on the road to rebound.

Market outlook for July: for details, see the monthly Review of June 25.