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[SMM current Daily Review] late-night reading, Golden list nomination
Jul 8,2020 18:16CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

(8 July)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / critical count death / 525Unix / 1949Unix / 117Unix / 4648.

 

Wu Zunyou traced the source of Beijing Xinguan virus: entered the newly developed area around the middle of May. Expert: as long as there are no more cluster cases, Beijing may downgrade the risk level within 1 to 2 weeks. The final disinfection of Beijing Xinfadi Wholesale Market was completed; the quarantined personnel in Xinfa were released in batches yesterday.

 

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 19pr 5217 / > 11.8716 million / 54pr 2112.

 

The anti-Trump group posted a video calling the new crown virus a "Trump virus". American infectious disease expert Fauci once again warned: the situation in the United States is really not good.

 

Brazilian President Bosonaro tested positive for the new crown and urged supporters not to get too close to him. Nearly 8 million people in Brazil have lost their jobs as a result of the epidemic and less than half of the workforce is working.

 

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 59521 / > 3.097 million / 13jue 3972.

 

Serious countries and regions.

2. Brazil: > 1.6746 million / 23698 Zero 6pm 6868.

3. India: > 744000 / 26726Universe 20653.

4. Russia: > 694200 / 6368amp 10494.

5. UK: > 286300 / 933 Universe 4pm 4391.

5. South Africa: > 215800 / 8971 Compact 3502.

6. Peru: > 309200 / 2985max 10952.

7. Mexico: > 268000 / 4902 Universe 3gamma 2014.

8. Chile: > 301000 / 5487 Comp6434.

9. Iran: > 245600 / 2637amp 11931.

10. Baccartan: > 237400 / 2691 Universe 4922.

11. Saudi Arabia: > 217100 / 3392 Universe 2017.

13. Bangladesh: > 168600 / 3027 Compact 2151.

14. Columbia: > 124400 / 3171 Universe 4359.

15. Argentina: > 83400 / 2632amp 1644.

 

< 2 > Today's current playback

1. The spot market price of steel has rebounded strongly on the whole, with an increase of 20 to 80 yuan per ton. The increase in most areas is 30-50 yuan per ton. Hangzhou and Shanghai in East China rose by 30 to 40 yuan per ton.

Deal: when the moon is full in the west building, the beauty smiles with delight.

Market mentality: high-frequency shift positive and optimistic.

Tangshan billet uplink 20 to 3370 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

The market price of scrap steel has risen by 30-50 yuan per ton today.

In terms of coke price, the price of coke has been reduced by 50 yuan per ton.

The price of main coking coal is generally stable.

The spot market price of iron ore port breaks through 800yuan / ton (PB powder).

For details, see SMM Nonferrous net [Daily Review of Iron Ore Market]:

Today, Liantie continued last night's strong trading, the port spot market early quotation continued to raise 10 Mel 15 yuan / ton. Traders are more active in shipping; some merchants are optimistic about the future and offer firm prices. Today, the market activity in Shandong is OK, and the trading activity of some traders has increased; steel mills purchase on demand. Some steel enterprises in Tangshan area are still subject to the impact of production restrictions, the overall procurement mood is not high. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area is about 800 yuan / ton, and that of PB powder in Tangshan area is 810 yuan / ton. The price difference between Shandong and Tangshan is rapidly narrowing. Some market participants said that although port inventories have rebounded for three consecutive weeks, pellet and lump ore inventories have increased significantly compared with the same period last year, but mainstream powder ore varieties are still tight; superimposed with a slight rebound in steel mill profits, steel mills still favor mainstream medium-and high-grade ore, providing some support for port spot prices.

2. Futures: marvelous soldiers from Chishui in the fourth crossing.

RB2010 main contract:

When autumn comes to September 8, I will blossom and wither.

During the day, it broke through 3680 between 3636 and 3706, rebounded strongly, and closed at 3702.

 

HC2010 main contract:

It was reported again that Tangshan had a high yield, and it was raining cats and dogs with tears.

Within the day, the volume exceeded 3672 between 3627 and 3698, rebounded strongly, and closed at 3696.

 

Iron ore i2009 main contract:

This goes to Taiquan recruitment Department, with a banner of 100,000 to cut Yan Luo.

During the day, the volume rebounded strongly between 765.5 and 791, closing at 788.

 

Coke J2009 main contract: touching heaven and earth, Dou E injustice

The day fluctuated upwards between 1871.5 and 1914, closing at 1909.5.

 

Coking coal JM2009 main contract:

A woman with small feet, slim and slim.

The day fluctuated strongly between 1187 and 1206.5, closing at 1196.5.

 

< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot: strong operation is the main continuation.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3670 and 3740.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3650 and 3720.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 775 and 810.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1890 and 1950.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1180 and 1220.

3. Spot operation tips: the implementation of the author's recommendations, the low part of the appropriate amount of replenishment of inventory will continue to profit-taking.

4. Futures operation suggestion

Thread, hot coil: low multi-single hold, new multi-single interval high sell low suction rolling operation.

Iron ore: low multi-single holding, new multi-single interval high sell low suction rolling operation, more than a single fall below 760 stop loss.

Coke: the rolling operation of high selling and low suction is the main operation in the range of activists, the multi-order effectively falls below 1880 stop-loss, and the empty single effectively breaks through 1930 stop-loss. Fast in and out.

Coking coal: it is appropriate to wait and see, chicken rib market.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3670.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3660.

I2009 main contract: support level 760.

J2009 main contract: support level 1880, pressure level 1930, 1950.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1180, pressure level 1210.

< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. The Prime Minister stressed that increasing support for new infrastructure construction will provide support for the development of emerging industries such as big data.

From June to 7th, the Premier of the State Council inspected Tongren and Guiyang in Guizhou. The premier listened to the report on the construction of "two new and one heavy" in Guizhou. He also visited the Tencent data center in Guiyang and urged the accompanying departments to increase support for the construction of new infrastructure to provide support for the development of emerging industries such as big data.

 

2. After the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates rebounded strongly against the US dollar on July 6, with an intraday increase of more than 500 points, onshore RMB and offshore RMB continued to rise above the 7.01barrier on July 7. among them, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose in early trading, breaking the "7" mark to 6.99705. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose higher and fell back yesterday, with a turnover of more than 1.7 trillion yuan.

3. Baltic dry bulk Index: down 0.36% to 1949 points.

 

4. The State General Administration of Flood Control: according to the relevant provisions of the National Emergency Plan for Flood Control and drought Relief, it was decided to upgrade the emergency response from level IV to level III at 16:00 on July 7.

Zhejiang News: 19:00 on July 7, Zhejiang Province launched the level I emergency response for flood control in the Qiantang River Basin in Zhejiang Province. Recently, under the influence of heavy rainfall in Meiyu, the water level of Xin'anjiang Reservoir has risen rapidly. as of 19:00 on July 7, the water level of Xin'anjiang Reservoir reached 108.05 meters, exceeding the normal water level. the water level will continue to rise and is expected to reach an all-time high.

China Water Conservancy Network: the Water Resources Department of Anhui Province has decided to upgrade the emergency response to flood and drought prevention to level II from 7: 00 on July 7, 2020. Most sections of the mainstream of the Yangtze River in Anhui Province have exceeded the warning level and will exceed the warning water level of the whole line. 19 rivers including Qingyi River, Shuiyang River and Xihe River and 5 lakes including Chaohu Lake, Caizi Lake and Nanyi Lake have exceeded the warning water level.

 

5. Xiao Gang, former chairman of the CSRC: the CPC Central Committee has never attached so much importance to the capital market as it is now. the reform of the capital market is facing three new situations. China's economy is changing from the stage of rapid growth to the stage of high-quality development. the driving force of economic growth has changed from factor-driven in the past, debt-driven to innovation-driven, and China's economy is going through a key stage of transformation, upgrading and structural optimization.

 

6, [July 2-July 8 Guangzhou building materials social inventory expansion-3.64% thread inventory-5.00%] this week, Guangzhou building materials total inventory 1.4694 million tons, down 55500 tons (- 3.64%), + 36.35% year-on-year. Among them, thread inventory was 989400 tons, down 52100 tons (- 5.00%) from the previous month, + 55.59% compared with the same period last year; reel inventory was 480000 tons, down 3400 tons (- 0.70%) from the previous month, and + 8.65% from the same period last year. [SMM Steel]

 

7. Today, the strong is expected to continue to strengthen, and the weak to achieve further passivation. Chi Wu funds invaded the black system on a large scale, killing the "air force" in blood; at the same time, casually burning the traditional period of arbitrage. What does it mean to surround 3700 of Qigang without attacking?! The author believes that: first, the short-term cash base difference is small, waiting for the late arrival of the "army" spot. Second, this battle is destined to be a war of annihilation, and then lure the new air force into the field. Third, after breaking through 3700, even refusing to return to the normal track at 20: 40 points, the probability of non-industry funds entering the market is high.

The spot rebound is still slim, and worry is still the factor of Meiyu. From an overall point of view, the essence of demand is remarkable, and it basically comes to an end after the middle of the rain in the south of the Yangtze River. in other words, the short-term adverse demand return period includes rain, college entrance examination and high school entrance examination, and the demand return period is more expected in the later period, as evidenced by Guangzhou inventory data (once the weather disturbance ends, the demand return period starts). In the early stage, the so-called false proposition that demand peaked and fell back was further confirmed. Regional differentiation will continue before the end of the rain.

Strong expectations for a higher level of real estate start-up area growth rate (mid-sunrise) guidance, the author expects a surprise. In short, the demand for retaliatory return is certain.

Focus surface language, short-term basis repair and technical gap

The probability of compensation is high.

The view of iron ore remains unchanged: the nature of high domestic demand is intact, the fluctuation of inventory data only affects the small rhythm fluctuation of the future mine, and the supply-side hard core is still the development of the epidemic in Brazil. The rebound in the general direction is still on the way. Hope the Patriot will wake up.

 

8. Pay attention to the sunrise of inventory tomorrow afternoon, and it is expected that the output will continue to look back and de-stockpile to carry on the past and open up the future.

 

With Tuesday's heart words

Strong expectations are constantly strengthened, while weak reality is passivated.

In the early stage of weak realization of steel, the original sin is the rain in the south of the Yangtze River and the epidemic situation in Beijing. On this point, Tong knows that, so many fence riders in the market conclude that demand has peaked and the inflection point of steel prices has entered a downward cycle. No, no. The difficulty in judging the law of market operation lies in late deductive reasoning. The author has prospectively deduced (February tweet) that the value depression of Chinese stocks has become obvious, and there are epic investment opportunities. The recent performance of the stock market has or will continue to fulfill the author's point of view. Black line to this day, the market long and empty differences are still the same. The logic of the bears is simple: we can only see the rain in July superimposed high temperature weather and static inventory, static high production factors. The author looks at the steel price market in July, and the main logical thinking will not be repeated. There are only three points to be emphasized today:

First, the macro environment continues to improve, the currency is overissued, and commodity prices need to be revalued.

Second, the production limit of environmental protection in Tangshan area has become more and more stringent recently, and the author's forward-looking judgment is being fulfilled.

Third, although the rain in the south of the Yangtze River has a great disturbance to demand, the daily high-frequency trading volume index is really not bad! Just imagine what would happen to steel prices without the influence of the rainy season. The author is confident about the resilience of demand in the second half of the year, and worry is part of the replacement of new capacity in the fourth quarter.

After all, the impact of short-term rain is local and the overall situation is intact, which is, of course, the main driving force of regional differentiation in the near future. Steel traders in each region should combine this factor to distinguish the operation of the spot. For example, whether the impact of rain in Wuhan is coming to an end, if so, it will be an opportunity to replenish inventory at every bargain, otherwise wait. For example, in the early stage of the Guangzhou market in South China, the author suggests using the price drop in typhoon weather to replenish the inventory, and the low price range is just in this period of time.

 

In terms of iron ore

Today, a big positive line will return all the ruts after the Dragon Boat Festival. Why? The main reason is that there is no substantial change in the fundamentals of high demand, only because of the anxiety of capital sentiment. The so-called drop in the operating rate of blast furnace has no harm to the demand for iron ore, of course, the environmental protection production restriction in Tangshan area is stricter, which has an impact on the reduction of iron ore demand, which needs to be paid attention to. The hard core on the iron ore supply side is still an epidemic in Brazil, and the epidemic in Brazil continues to worsen. How credible can Vale's target task of 310 million-330 million tons be achieved?

 

Coke

Although the seventh round of rise has not yet landed, the first round of lifting and lowering of steel mills is under way. , but the coke enterprise did not reply. The fundamentals of coke are still healthy, and the overall supply and demand is still in a tight balance! It's just the result of the distortion of the steel mill. The future focal plane (1842) has shown four rounds of lifting and lowering, with a discount of 200 yuan / ton. Coke demand end is the same as iron ore, do not repeat; different iron ore on the supply side, coke enterprise profits are high, production is of course high, the problem is that the overall implementation of capacity is good! There is no pressure on the inventory of coke enterprises. Steel coke game intensified, take it easy! It is hard to stop profit and loss in time.

 

With Monday's heart words

Although rain affects the continuation of demand, the demand is very resilient, and once the rain disturbance is over, the return period of demand can be expected later; the production limit of environmental protection in Tangshan area becomes stricter, and the output reaches its peak stage with a high probability of falling down; due to the small base difference, it is necessary to catch up with the spot, and the probability of running into strong shock in the short term is high (the rut space is limited). With the improvement of the macro environment, the stock market rebounded to a new high this year, and the cyclical bull market was characterized by a strong support for the bottom of the black system. The seasonal impact on the limited demand for stone coke is gradually drifting away, focusing on more opportunities in the distant month; the epidemic in Brazil is likely to worsen in the fourth quarter, especially in iron ore long-month contracts. In short, the author's point of view remains unchanged, macro direction, basic plane dimension, general direction rebound is still walking on the road …. No, no.

 

The heart comments of the week are attached.

In terms of finished products

The gap between strong expectation and weak realization is strengthened. Today's futures steel rose sharply, the spot rose slightly, and the cash spread converged sharply. Take the three types of brands in Shanghai as an example, the spot price of futures is more than 30 yuan / ton, and in the case of Shanghai Shagang brand, the spot discount of futures is less than 80 yuan / ton. The original sin is that the spot is more focused on the static reality, that is, the short-term output is high, the rain in the south affects demand, and the superimposed market "fortune-telling" disturbance. Normally speaking, Fuzhou Steel is the deduction of expectations, that is, the dynamic changes of industry output, demand and inventory. From the main road to the middle: macro direction, industry dimension. Whether the truth is put aside for the time being, but after N times of practice, at least there is a good chance of winning.

The main factors affecting the operation of the market next week include, but are not limited to:

First, parts of the south continue to rain, the impact of high-temperature weather is unharmed (the author has said, I will not repeat it).

Second, the examination of life (July 7, 8 college entrance examination) will affect the construction, but it is very limited.

Third, how big is the actual "rainfall" of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan area.

Fourth, whether the macro environment continues to strengthen, the author tends to think that we should not dream too much in the short term.

Fifth, to what extent the output converges, we should pay attention to the hot coil varieties of rebar blast furnace hot metal.

The sixth is the intensity of demand recovery in the areas where the rain is different from the sunny day.

Seventh, the problem of funds affects the life of the construction.

 

Raw material side.

Scrap: with the decrease of the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace and the decrease of the proportion of scrap addition in long process, the production capacity converges in stages, and the scrap price is still under short-term pressure.

 

In terms of coke: the fundamentals are still healthy, and coke enterprises are highly motivated to produce (unlimited nonsense). ), but the core is the low inventory of coke enterprises. It is said that the market thinks that the seventh round rise has peaked and fell back (I do not agree). At present, we are considering the delivery routine "moisture" at least 150 yuan / ton coke discount, that is to say, the disk price has already reflected three rounds of increase and decline, looking forward to the replacement of new production capacity (referring to crude steel output), long and short risks and opportunities should be measured!

 

Iron ore: production restrictions on environmental protection in Tangshan area will of course have a negative impact on iron ore demand, the author believes that no matter how the impact will not hurt the overall situation, the overall situation of high demand is not only unharmed but also higher. The supply-side hard core is still the epidemic of mining countries exported to China, such as Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa and so on. Short-term inventory fluctuations should not be too troublesome, containing too much "water". No, no. In short, iron ore short-term recovery space is very limited, hope more empty and go and cherish.

In short, the author's point of view remains unchanged: the general rebound is still on the way. No, no. There are only many battles on the road to rebound.

 

Market outlook for July: for details, see the monthly Review of June 25.

 

 

 

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