SMM: on July 1, Shanghai copper closed up 1.63% at 49350 yuan, a six-month high and approaching the 50000 integer mark. To measure the copper price of the macroeconomic barometer, how to go in the future? Let's take a look at the institutional point of view, which has been sorted out as follows:
The CIC Futures Research report pointed out that the Fed did not continue to increase monetary easing policy at its meeting, which put pressure on risky assets that rose sharply because of abundant liquidity. Consumer side, into the lower reaches of the overall order decline significantly in June, the previous performance of the copper rod has also been weak. Infrastructure, real estate rush to promote the recent performance of the spot side is better, demand stable inventory removal, demand-side support is still there. Overall, there is support for fundamentals, but copper prices are still dominated by macro pricing and focus on overseas outbreaks. Short-term copper prices are expected to show a high shock adjustment.
Changan Futures believes that copper prices continue the upward trend in June, in addition to the fundamentals, the loose macro environment also provides a strong support. In the future, the epidemic in South America is more serious, and there are expectations of tight supply at the mine end; the acceleration of refined copper output is expected to slow and domestic inventories are low. The demand has been weakened and the replacement of scrap copper has been enhanced. The macro environment is slightly neutral, and the whole is in the contradiction between economic recovery and the second outbreak of the epidemic. In the absence of obvious pessimism, there may still be room for copper prices to rise.
On the whole, as copper prices reach the level of a year ago, a stronger bullish drive is needed to continue to rise. At present, there are no obvious negative factors, copper prices or strong operation, even if there is an adjustment, the range is expected to be limited, pre-multiple orders can continue to hold, those who do not hold positions wait for a pullback opportunity.
Jinyuan Futures said that copper prices continued to rise this week before the festival, prices continue to hit new highs, the second quarter rose to a nearly 10-year high. Although there was a rebound in the new crown epidemic in the United States, the rise in copper prices has not been affected much, which means that the impact of the new crown on copper prices has basically receded. The market had feared that the decline in consumption in the off-season could be a drag on copper prices, which has not been fulfilled so far. In the latest release of domestic official PMI data once again exceeded market expectations, reflecting that the market is still in a good state of recovery. At the same time, the new rules and regulations of recycled copper have not yet landed, which also means that the domestic scrap copper supply will remain low in the third quarter, and the market supply is not optimistic. Combined with the current continuous decline in copper stocks, we believe that the rise in copper prices is not over. Therefore, we are still optimistic about the future, short-term adjustment will not hinder the medium-and long-term rising pattern.
Cinda futures analysis pointed out that the recent concern about the epidemic in Chile has once again aroused concern in the copper concentrate market, continuing to put pressure on domestic TC processing fees, pushing copper prices to maintain a strong trend. Lun Copper, after all, has an integer mark of 6000 US dollars. Domestically, the off-season has dropped to a sustainable depot, and the overall inventory level has remained historically low. in addition, due to the limited increment of supply caused by low processing fees, there may be a weak situation of both supply and demand in the future, but the fabric of the low-inventory strong cash bureau will continue to be maintained. it is also a high probability that there is a certain fund-driven rising market in stages. In addition, in terms of macro funds, there has been a flood of water in the global market, and the resumption of work is expected to continue to hype, adding fuel to the high financial attribute of copper prices. On the whole, low inventory and strong spot still support copper prices, while macro funds and other aspects of the bullish will continue to reflect, copper prices are expected to continue to maintain a strong shock trend, the operation of more ideas to treat.
According to Baocheng Futures Analysis, the global copper market performed strongly at the end of June, with LME three-month copper prices rising above the $6000 / tonne mark in intraday trading on June 26, with a "V" reversal since April, like other risky assets. From the perspective of the trend of copper prices, we believe that speculative demand triggered by excessive liquidity at the macro level and the epidemic at the micro level resonate with the output of copper mines, resulting in a higher-than-expected rebound in copper prices. Looking forward, however, the investment demand brought about by supply-side interference and liquidity spillover has kept copper prices strong in the short term, but is about to enter a bubble-like adjustment due to the second outbreak of the epidemic and the declining slope of economic recovery. demand for copper is weakening, while supply-side interference is only short-term. However, the copper market bubble still has to wait for liquidity and inventory inflection point to emerge.
Guoxin Futures believes that recently, major global asset prices are also facing the risk of aggravating economic depression caused by the intensification of the global epidemic, as well as the stimulus of easy liquidity and rising inflation brought about by the wide monetary credit of the world's central banks. Among them, equity classes and cyclical products, such as stock markets and commodities, are divided in strength, and high risks are increased behind some varieties hitting new highs. At present, the non-ferrous industry is in a trend of medium-and long-term marginal weakening of supply and demand. However, short-term supply disturbance themes in South America and low domestic inventory support spot, taking into account the short-term liquidity, low industrial negotiable inventory and the risk of overcrowding in recent months, customers are advised to control the size of unilateral exposure in the process of rebounding. Beware of short-term high two-way fluctuations, industrial customers use virtual inventory and hedging transactions to flexibly adjust exposure risk, copper intertemporal structure is mainly held in positive sets, aluminum cross-city structure is mainly in positive sets.
Huatai Futures said that in the middle line, from a macro point of view, there is still a high probability that low interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policy around the world will continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor for commodities. In terms of fundamentals, on the raw material side, there are not many projects to increase production in Copper Mine in 2020. TC of Copper concentrate Association and Benchmark of imported crude copper have all dropped sharply compared with 2019, and the tension of raw material supply relative to smelting capacity still exists. The year-on-year growth rate of copper concentrate, electrolytic copper and copper imports expanded significantly in the fourth quarter of 2019, and domestic refined copper and copper production increased significantly, which is related to the month-on-month increase in power grid investment and the marginal improvement of products such as automobiles and air conditioners in the second half of the year. it is also partly based on the good expectation of the market for the increase of infrastructure construction in 2020 and the improvement of cyclical consumption after real estate. However, it should be noted that State Grid has set its grid investment plan at 408 billion yuan in 2020, which is expected to be 8.8% lower than the 450 billion in 2019. The sharp reduction in grid investment will have a certain impact on copper consumption. In addition, it should be noted that the current strong trend in copper prices may stimulate the acceleration or even higher-than-expected encashment of new capacity, which may also suppress copper prices from the supply side.
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