(29 May)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe / 117 take 1734 pick 409 people.

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 106150 / > 5.838 million / 35 7757.

The city of Sao Paulo, Brazil: announced that the city's shopping malls and street shops will reopen from June 1. Sao Paulo is the largest city in Brazil and the city with the worst outbreak of new crown pneumonia in the country.

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 19782 / > 1.76 million / 103330.

Brazil ranks second in the world in terms of serious countries and regions.

Brazil: > 438800 / 20154 Compact 26764.

Russia: > 379000 / 8338 Universe 4142.

India: > 166100 / 8600 Universe 4715.

Peru: > 141700 / 6154Comp4099.

Canada: > 88500 / 1255 Universe 6877.

Chile: > 86900 / 4654 Compact 890.

Saudi Arabia: > 80100 / 1644 Compact 441.

Iran: > 143800 / 7627 Compact 2258.

< 2 > this issue is now replayed:

At the beginning of the long rain, I sang around the Qingxi alone.

Limited production in Tangshan area, send steel to Qingyun.

1. Spot market prices rebounded sharply on the whole, with a general increase of 20-80 yuan / ton. Tangshan area rose 50-80 yuan / ton, East China Shanghai rose 40 yuan / ton, Hangzhou rose 50 yuan / ton, Fuzhou rose 20-50 yuan, and Guangzhou in South China rose 20 yuan / ton (affected by rain).

Turnover: since the beauty is drunk, Zhu Yan is more embarrassed.

Market mentality: cautious optimism.

Tangshan billet upstream 30 yuan to 3280 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

The price of scrap is stable.

The coke is stable after the third round of rise and landing.

The price of coking coal is stable.

The spot market price of iron ore port rose 10-15 yuan / ton as a whole. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong direction is 735mur745 yuan / ton, while that of PB powder in Tangshan area is about 755 yuan / ton, which is relatively flat. For details, see SMM Nonferrous net [Daily Review of Iron Ore Market]

This Tangshan production restrictions and Brazil rumors to cut production again for the market drive is more significant, the port spot market early quotation raised 10 Mel 15 yuan / ton. As the market continues to rise, some merchants raise prices again. Near the weekend, the enthusiasm of the steel mills for inquiry has decreased. As for traders, they have a good mentality and high enthusiasm for quotation today; in view of the fact that some businessmen are optimistic about the future, they still continue their price-raising behavior, and there is not much room for bargaining. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area is 735mur745 yuan / ton, and that of PB powder in Tangshan area is about 755 yuan / ton. Today, the overall transaction is general. Inventories at 35 ports tracked by SMM totaled 99.39 million tons as of May 29, down 1.07 million tons from last week and 15.46 million tons from a year earlier, continuing to hit a nearly three-year low. At the same time, the average daily dredging volume of the port fell by 54000 tons from last week to 2.751 million tons, or about 1.9 per cent. Recently, the volume of Macao and Pakistan to Hong Kong has declined slightly, and the production restriction policy has little impact on steel mills during the two sessions. The operating rate of blast furnaces in domestic steel mills remains high, and port inventory continues to decline. However, due to more steel mills to maintain low inventory on-demand procurement, the port average daily open port month-on-month ratio is also weak. Due to the recent decrease in the number of arrivals from major ports in Shandong, the inventory of major ports in Shandong continued to decline month-on-month in the current period. Recently, the arrival of ships in Jingtang Port in Tangshan area has increased, and the port inventory has rebounded month-on-month. In view of the significant increase in Australia and Pakistan's recent shipments and the rumors of production restrictions and pressure in Tangshan in June, the decline in port inventories is expected to continue to slow in the later period. [SMM Steel]

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: a huge increase in positions between 3495 and 3580 within the day rebounded strongly, closing at 3579.

HC2010 main contract: a sharp increase in positions between 3447 and 3545 within the day rebounded strongly, closing at 3542.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: the daily volume increased between 712 and 753.5, soaring by 6.44% to close at 752.

Coke J2009 main contract: within the day between 1850 to 1883 strong shock, closing 1877.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1155 to 1165.5 horizontal concussion, closing 1162.

< 3 > next week's current forecast:

1. Spot aspect: overall shock uplink; excessive force stored high falling probability, but the center of gravity is still moving forward.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 35300 and 3630.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3500 and 3580.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 730 and 780.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1850 and 1910.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1130 and 1180.

3. Spot operation tip: reduce inventory by an appropriate amount at every high price.

4. Futures.

Thread, hot coil: in the early stage, it is suitable for the rolling operation of high selling and low suction in the new range.

Iron ore: wait and see in more than empty space, it is appropriate to sell high and suck low in the range of activists, fast in and out, fall below more than 630 single stop loss, and empty single effectively break through 780 stop loss.

Coke: in the early stage, most of them left the market; more transactions in the new warehouse order range, fast-in and fast-out; trend empty order 1900 gradually involved.

Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3530, pressure level 3610.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3480, pressure level 3580.

I2009 main contract: support level 632, pressure level 780.

J2009 main contract: support 1840, pressure 1892.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1140, pressure level 1200.

< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. After realizing the task of "six guarantees", especially the former "three guarantees", we will achieve positive economic growth this year, and we must strive to have a certain extent to promote the stable progress of China's economy. We have said in the past that there should be no flooding, and this is still the case now, but there should be a special policy in a special period, which we call releasing water for fish farming. Fish can't live without enough water. But if it is flooded, a bubble will be formed, some people will arbitrage from it, fish will not be raised, and some people will fish in troubled waters. Therefore, the measures we take should be targeted, that is to say, we should touch the right medicine under the pulse. No matter where the money comes from or where it is used, we have to take a new path. It can be said that the funds raised by this large-scale policy can be divided into two parts: one is to increase the deficit and issue a total of 2 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds to fight the epidemic. There is another bigger piece, which is the reduction and reduction of social insurance premiums. Some countries call it payroll tax, using unemployment insurance balances to promote state-owned commercial banks to make profits, and natural monopoly enterprises to reduce prices, so as to reduce the operating costs of enterprises. And we want to promote these funds to protect jobs, people's livelihood and market players, and support the income of residents.

2. We emphasize that policy funds should go directly to the local level, to the grass roots, and to the people's livelihood. The new deficit and anti-epidemic national debt funds are all transferred to the local authorities, that is, the "passing God of Wealth" in the province, directly to the grass-roots level. We are now going to adopt a special transfer payment mechanism, and all this money should go to enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to social security, minimum security, unemployment, old-age support, and people in poverty, and to establish a real-name system, all of which can be checked. False accounts are never allowed, nor are we allowed to change posts. The central government is taking the lead in living a tight life this time. We have reduced the non-urgent and non-rigid expenditure of the central departments by more than half, and allocated funds to grass-roots enterprises and people's livelihood. Governments at all levels should lead a tight life and must not be allowed to engage in formalism or engage in things that are lavish and lavish.

3. "two new and one heavy" brings opportunities for iron and steel infrastructure.

The new formulation of "two new and one heavy" in this work report has aroused the general concern of the organization. "two new and one heavy" means two "new" and one "heavy", namely, a new type of infrastructure, a new type of urbanization, and major projects such as transportation and water conservancy. The "two new and one heavy" construction is mainly to strengthen the construction of new infrastructure, develop a new generation of information networks, expand 5G applications, build charging piles, promote new energy vehicles, stimulate new consumer demand, and promote industrial upgrading. We will strengthen the construction of a new type of urbanization and vigorously enhance the capacity of public facilities and services in the county, so as to meet the increasing needs of farmers to work and settle down in the county. New construction has been started to renovate 39000 old urban neighborhoods, supporting the installation of elevators and the development of various community services such as dining and cleaning. We will strengthen the construction of transportation, water conservancy and other major projects. The capital for national railway construction will be increased by 100 billion yuan.

4. The industrial product production licenses of 89 steel enterprises have been cancelled.

According to a recent announcement by the State Administration of Market Supervision, due to the non-renewal of production licenses, the General Administration of Market Supervision decided to cancel the industrial product production licenses of 1681 enterprises, including Tangshan Delong Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., among which 89 steel enterprises' industrial product production licenses were cancelled.

5. After a short rhythm, the steel withdrew 50-80 yuan / ton, rebounded and started again, all within the range of the author. As for the production limit of environmental protection in Tangshan area, the author can only say that it is inevitable by accident, but I don't know! I have talked a lot about logical thinking and viewpoints, so I will not repeat them. What needs to be reminded is that there is no doubt that the overall situation is in the same direction, regional differentiation is normal, and rain in Yangcheng and other places can only stop the extent. Bears must not be too sentimental, the price difference is higher than the path cost is the inevitable choice of supply liquidity.

Note: if the production of environmental protection in Tangshan area is limited by thunderstorm, the monthly production will be reduced by 2.6 million tons. Paying attention to "rainfall" is the hard core.

Iron ore.

Tangshan area limited production is difficult to match the Brazilian epidemic funds copy efforts.

The actual fundamental situation, the domestic blast furnace operating rate is already high, which has no essential impact on the increment of stone demand; domestic steel mills turn to low-and medium-grade procurement due to high prices, resulting in relatively tight low-and medium-grade stones at present. Loss of appetite for high-quality divine ore! Overseas world steel mills reduced production by 13%. Although the Brazilian epidemic was hit by the earthquake, so far there is no substantial impact, and there is uncertainty in the later stage; Australian kangaroos travel day and night, wear stars and wear the moon to expand production and spare no effort to increase shipping volume!

Fund manipulation sentiment: the author once said that once it effectively breaks through 732, it is 800? 900?. No, no. The author has no desire to predict irrational things. The best way to wait and see: watch monkeys play.

The bifocal point of view remains unchanged.

With Thursday's heart words

Sunrise interpretation of inventory data:

This week, the total output of the five major varieties increased to 79400 tons to 10.7185 million tons, of which rebar production increased by 24500 tons to 3.9401 million tons, while hot rolling production decreased slightly by 4600 tons to 3.0775 million tons.

The total inventory of the five major varieties fell by 608400 tons to 21.5958 million tons, of which the total inventory of rebar fell by 297700 tons to 11.0789 million tons, and that of hot rolling by 185700 tons to 3.8717 million tons.

Steel mill inventory: the five major varieties decreased by 12200 tons to 6.1035 million tons, rebar increased by 41400 tons to 3.0516 million tons, and hot rolling decreased by 99500 tons to 1.0479 million tons.

Social inventory: the five major varieties decreased by 608400 tons to 15.4923 million tons, rebar by 339100 tons to 8.0273 million tons, and hot rolling by 86200 tons to 2.8238 million tons.

See Table 1 for details.

Interpretation: today's inventory data sunrise, total production continues to hit a new high, destocking slowed down significantly. Hot and cold rolled varieties perform well.

(1) the output of the five major varieties increased to 10.72 million tons and then reached the peak of last year, of which the output of rebar reached a new record high of 3.94 million tons, and the output of hot and cold rolling looked back.

(2) the high demand for building materials continues, and the demand for hot and cold rolling is higher.

(3) the total inventory of the five major varieties is 21.6 million tons. Among them, the total inventory of rebar is 11.08 million tons and that of hot rolling is 3.87 million tons. If the author considers the sample equivalent value of uniform caliber: the total inventory of five major varieties is 18.79 million tons, and the rebar bank is 6.98 million tons.

(4) the impact of Meiyu season on demand is limited, and the demand intensity is still higher than that of the same period last year.

(5) the high output has a certain pressure on the rebound of building materials in the short term, but it is a high probability event that the hot metal of blast furnace turns to hot and cold rolled products in the later stage.

(6) the production limit of environmental protection in Tangshan area will be reflected next week.

In short, the overall interpretation of neutral preference! Neutral preference of cold and hot rolled varieties! Building materials are neutral!

Stone coke is too high, the cost support is solid; the total inventory pressure is intact, a few regional specifications show; despite the Meiyu disturbance, high demand is still strong, imagine if there is no rain, what will the demand be like? Although the supply side is high, the profits of steel mills are greatly eroded by Shenzhou mine, independent electric arc furnaces generally lose money (small profits of tax-refunded steel enterprises), some electric furnace converters are at the margin of profit and loss, environmental protection limits production, and supply-side expansion is limited. In short, the author's point of view of rhythm and trend remains unchanged.

Rhythm, trend logic and point of view remain the same: for details, see the review last week and the outlook for June! I won't repeat it.