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[SMM current Review] there are many ways to rebound, take a rest and then start.
May 27,2020 19:10CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

(27 May)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe / 120Universe 1732tap404 persons.

The results of the first phase clinical trials of China's new crown vaccine are encouraging-experts in Europe and the United States are talking about the positive results achieved in the research and development of China's new crown vaccine.

The research team led by Academician Chen Saijuan published the latest research in the journal Nature: the new crown virus may already exist widely in the population.

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 97802 / > 5.606 million / 34. 7659.

Who: the new crown pneumonia pandemic is currently five months old, and there is only five months of epidemic data available. At this stage, there is no evidence that it will recover in the winter. Epidemiological studies have shown that many people are still susceptible, meaning that if the virus exists, regardless of temperature and month, it can infect humans, and if people come into close contact with each other, the epidemic will recover without having to wait until winter. Many countries have seen such growth.

Who Emergency WHO: suspension of the use of hydroxychloroquine in the Solidarity Test to fully assess the potential effects and hazards of hydroxychloroquine.

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 21842 / > 1.725 million / 100572.

With the death toll of more than 100000 in the United States, it is unreliable for Trump to reach the figure he wants this time.

Former US Minister to China: the current US government is the most incompetent and depraved one in history. The White House urges the completion of virus testing in all nursing homes within 2 weeks. American media: the goal is difficult to achieve.

Brazil ranks second in the world for the time being in serious countries and regions.

Brazil: > 394500 / 12498 Compact 24593.

Russia: > 362300 / 8915 / 3803.

UK: > 265200 / 5668Universe 3gamma 7048.

India: > 151800 / 9085max 4346.

Peru: > 129700 / 4020 Universe 3788.

Canada: > 86600 / 1298 Compact 6639.

Chile: > 77900 / 3964Comp806.

Pakistan: > 59100 / 1356amp 1225.

Saudi Arabia: > 76700 / 1931 Compact 411.

< 2 > this issue is now replayed.

1. Spot market prices as a whole weak and stable, weak in the morning and strong in the afternoon. Hangzhou in eastern China fell 10 yuan / ton, Shanghai fell 10 yuan / ton in early trading, rose 10 yuan / ton in the afternoon, Guangzhou in southern China was stable, and Wuhan and Changsha in central China were stable. It is common for volume to be sold at a low price.

Volume: high demand remains strong.

Market mentality: stabilize the owner.

The lower billet in Tangshan area ranges from 10 yuan to 3240 yuan per ton.

Raw material end:

The price of scrap is generally stable.

The third round of coke rises and falls on the ground.

The price of coking coal is stable.

The spot market price of iron ore port has risen by 10 yuan / ton as a whole, see SMM Nonferrous net Daily Review for details, and will not repeat it.

[daily Review of Iron Ore Market]

Even the iron opened low in the morning, and the price in the port spot market was lowered by about 10 yuan / ton in early trading. With the market shock rising, some traders have raised their quotations one after another. As for traders, some of them have a good mentality and continue their price-raising behavior. Steel mills, driven by price reduction, coupled with weekly demand, are mainly on-demand procurement; today's inquiry is more active, the overall transaction is better than yesterday. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area is between 715 Mel 725 yuan / ton, while that of PB powder in Tangshan area is about 715 Mel 720 yuan / ton. compared with yesterday, there was a drop of 10 yuan per ton in Tangshan area. From the point of view of the variety of transactions, with the recent narrowing of the low-and medium-grade price gap, the turnover of medium-grade ore has slightly improved. Superimposed recent coke prices rose successfully, steel mills for medium-grade ore demand has increased. In the short term, under the condition that there is no obvious change in the contradiction between supply and demand, iron ore prices may continue to repeat the market. [SMM Steel]

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: continue finishing between 3467 and 3510 within a day, closing at 3494 (Cross Star).

HC2010 main contract: continue to sort out between 3384 and 3436 within a day, closing at the end of 3419.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: divine mine.

In the past, there was no room for boasting, but now there is no limit to debauchery.

During the day, the bottom rebounded sharply between 685.5 and 708.5, closing at 706.

Coke J2009 main contract: finishing between 1846 and 1874.5 within a day, closing at the end of 1863.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: small foot woman, slim step.

The day fluctuated strongly between 1145.5 and 1166.5, closing at 1163.5.

< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot: strong operation.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3480 and 3560.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3390 and 3470.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 690 and 715.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1850 and 1910.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1130 and 1180.

3. Spot operation tips: in the first half of the week, we continue to get rid of inventory in the first half of the week, and gradually replenish inventory in the second half of the week.

4. Futures.

Thread, hot coil: high throwing and low suction rolling operation in the range.

Iron ore: high altitude and low suction in the range, fast in and out, falling below more than 690 single stop loss, empty single effectively break through 713 stop loss.

Coke: in the early stage, most of them left the market; more transactions in the new warehouse order range, fast-in and fast-out; trend empty order 1900 gradually involved.

Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3490, 3470, pressure level 3560.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3400, 3380, pressure level 3470.

I2009 main contract: support level 685, pressure level 713.

J2009 main contract: support 1840, pressure 1892.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1140, pressure level 1200.

< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. Yi Gang, governor of the people's Bank of China, talked about hot issues such as monetary policy: a prudent monetary policy will be more flexible and moderate, and will continue to promote the reduction of real interest rates on loans; there is no timetable for the formal launch of the digital RMB.

2. loose expectations set out again: the market expects that the future reserve reduction is a high probability event.

After 55 days, the central bank resumed the reverse repurchase operation. Although the scale of this launch is only 10 billion, it is a drop in the bucket to ease the current shortage of funds, but its signal significance is greater than substance, and its positive effect is to rekindle loose expectations and stabilize market confidence. Institutions expect that the future reserve rate cut is a high probability event, OMO, MLF interest rate reduction is also entirely possible. There will be two MLF maturities in June, 500 billion yuan on June 6 and 240 billion yuan on June 19. After the LPR did not cut interest rates on May 20, the necessity for the central bank to guide the MLF interest rate downward has increased, and the MLF interest rate is expected to be adjusted in June.

3. The target of coal production capacity of 2.96 million tons per year transferred from three coal mines in Henan Province.

4. Brazilian Iron and Steel Association: Brazilian crude steel production fell 39% in April compared with the same period last year.

5. New confirmed cases of crown pneumonia have been reported in Paranagua Port, Brazil, and soybean loading has been suspended in a berth.

On May 26th, shipping agency Williams reported on Tuesday that the loading of soybeans at a berth in Paranagua, Brazil, had been suspended after several crew members of ships docked at that berth had tested positive for new crown pneumonia.

Other berths in the port of Paranagua are operating normally, the agency said.

6, [May 21-May 27 Guangzhou building materials inventory significantly narrowed compared with last week-2.64% thread inventory-1.55%] this week Guangzhou building materials inventory 1.5971 million tons, reduced 43300 tons (- 2.64%), lunar calendar year-on-year + 35.22%. Of these, thread inventory was 1.1482 million tons, a decrease of 18100 tons (- 1.55%) compared with the previous month, + 38.84% in the lunar calendar year-on-year, and 448900 tons in reel inventory, a decrease of 25200 tons (- 5.32%) compared with the previous month, and + 26.77% in the lunar calendar year-on-year.

7. Steel

Today, the price resistance of the steel market is enhanced, the author has predicted that the range of 50-80 yuan / ton is basically in place, and activists can replenish inventory in an appropriate amount. Although the weather is not beautiful recently, daily trading volume still maintains a high demand state, which proves that the high demand continues unscathed. In the outlook article in June, the author confirmed that the high demand is safe and sound from a global point of view, while from a local point of view, we need to pay attention to the particularity of the contradiction, that is, the development and control of various regions of the epidemic are not synchronized, resulting in non-synchronous resumption of work and production is an objective fact. for example, if the East China market Hangzhou is relatively early in resuming production, the real estate stock will naturally be completed earlier. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the change of snail demand (one of the leading indicators of completion), that is, if the snail demand is hot, it means that the rush demand is at the end of the rush demand, which needs to be paid close attention to. The demand for work in Wuhan, such as Hubei Province, even lasted until July. Recently, the demand for cold rolling and hot coiling is stronger than that of building materials, which is positively related to the resumption of demand in Europe and Southeast Asia. As for the resumption of work and production in Europe even though the epidemic has not been brought under control, the current impact will certainly be positive.

8. Today, iron ore is affected by (5 points) information, which once again stimulates the sentiment of long money. So far, the epidemic in Brazil has not affected the supply and shipping volume. As for the uncertainty about how to do it in the later stage. In short, short-term volatility increases, long-short orders are cautiously involved, and timely stop profit and stop loss is the hard core. The improvement of coke fundamentals continues to strengthen, and steel enterprises in Shandong, Shanxi and Hebei basically accept the third round of increase of 50 yuan / ton. Whether the fourth round of increase can be opened or not mainly depends on the implementation of environmental protection and production restrictions in Shandong. Short-term focus is still more trading, fast-in and fast-out is appropriate. The mid-term empty order can wait for about 1930 to enter.

9, pay attention to the sunrise of inventory data tomorrow afternoon, production is expected to converge slightly, destocking continues to be a high probability event!


Attaching words to the heart on Tuesday

In terms of steel

Today's trading volume, in many areas of rain and weak steel state, still maintain the peak season level. When it rains in many areas, the so-called high demand in the market will inevitably be happy in the heart of those who have reached the peak of high demand. Today's trading volume hits the face again! The demand for beauty is unique and old-fashioned, which makes people feel haunted. The short rhythm is still within the scope of the author's prediction. In short, the view of rhythm and trend remains the same.

In terms of iron ore

Today, the diving platform of Shenzhou Mine is mainly due to the shipment volume of Australian kangaroo and Brazil (23.639 million tons), which is 19.3% higher than that of the previous period (19.823 million tons).

For this reason, the author has three questions?!

One question is that despite the epicenter of the epidemic in Brazil, what we can see at this stage is that the impact on supply has not been realized, while the Australian kangaroo has greatly expanded! Why did the previous data drop continuously?

The second question is that the output of the world's steel mills has been reduced by 13%. Where are the divine mines going?

The third question is, how can the shipping volume suddenly soar after a continuous decline? Is it in line with the routine? Do you understand that the previous data are manipulated? Is it based on the recent voice of deputies to the National people's Congress and under pressure to recover? If so, should professional ethics and ethics be tortured?! Haha, the benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom!

In a word, the author's view on divine mine remains unchanged.

The price is so high that there is no room for longevity.


Demon Jiao reached its highest point of 1892 today, and the third round of spot rally began to hit the ground. No, no. The author's forward-looking view is realized: once Ziwei Dong (1760), Hu Xingsen Yaomang (1900). The fourth round of rise and landing is expected in the middle and lower part of June, paying attention to Shandong's "rainfall" is the hard core, and Shanxi's direction is expected to have a high probability of heavy thunder and small raindrops.

It is suggested that in the early stage, the single drop bag is an only high index.

Based on the fundamentals, the supply margin of coking coal has improved, but the overall pattern of supply exceeding demand has not changed essentially.

Rhythm, trend logic and point of view remain the same: for details, see the review last week and the outlook for June! I won't repeat it.




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