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[SMM current Review] Huangsha wears gold armor in a hundred battles, but Loulan will not be returned until it is broken.
May 18,2020 18:36CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

(18 May)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe / 145ax 1704ram 448pm.

The new crown vaccine of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences has entered clinical trials, and the first batch of volunteers have been vaccinated. Zhong Nanshan: China has not yet established a new crown immunization and be on guard against the second wave of the epidemic. Academician Li Lanjuan: the control of the source of infection, the route of transmission, and the protection of susceptible people are always fundamental to the prevention and control of infectious diseases.

Fengman District of Jilin City, another high-risk area in Jilin, has decisively "closed the city" since May 17, and trade circulation enterprises except supermarkets have been suspended from business since the 18th.

 

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 80114 / > 4.721 million / 31.2155.

"We have to go back to work with or without vaccines," Trump said. Obama once again criticized the current US government's response to the epidemic: "it is definitely a chaotic disaster."

On January 11th, most people didn't know what had happened. We have already tried to develop a vaccine. " In the White House speech on the 15th, the date mentioned by Trump was like a deep-water zha bomb that shook the global public opinion. The White House epidemic virus is transferred from the ground to the ground!

Us emperor Qianguan: election situation, stock, return to work is priority!

Italy announced the "unblocking", which will open up the movement of people between countries in the Schengen zone in early June; the French interior minister was angry that he did not co-ordinate with EU member states.

The prime minister of Spain has asked for another extension of the state of emergency.

CCTV: in view of the fact that a large number of new crown pneumonia virus has been detected in the drainage system of Nitroy, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazilian water quality experts warn that if this phenomenon continues to spread, drainage systems in Rio de Janeiro and throughout Brazil may become another important carrier for the spread of the new crown pneumonia virus.

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 18361 / > 1.527 million / 90928.

Serious countries and regions.

Russia: > 281700 / 9709 Compact 2631.

UK: > 243600 / 3534amp 34636.

Brazil: > 241000 / 7938Comp16122.

India: > 86100 / 5050amp 3029.

Peru: > 92200 / 3732amp 2648.

Canada: > 7.7 Compact 1138Accord 54782.

Pakistan: > 42000 / 1974 Compact 903.

Singapore: > 28000 / 682 Universe 22.

< 2 > Today's current replay.

1. Spot market price.

It rebounded sharply over the weekend and rose slightly today, with a cumulative increase of 80,150 yuan / ton. The markets of Shanghai and Hangzhou in East China rose by 80,130 yuan / ton, the transaction price of three brands in Shanghai was 3530 yuan / ton, the price of Hangzhou Shagang brand was 3630 yuan / ton (3650 high reported no transaction), and the cumulative increase of Guangzhou in South China was 90,130 yuan / ton. The overall cumulative rebound in May exceeded 150 yuan / ton. The performance of hot coil is still better than that of rebar. Tangshan billet rebounded 80 yuan to 3250 yuan / ton. The author makes a forward-looking judgment on the direction and extent of the research.

Turnover: hot again.

Need beauty: there are beauties in the north, unique and independent.

Market mentality: high price is mainly cautious wait-and-see, low price is OK.

Today, the billet in Tangshan area goes up 10 to 3250 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

The overall price of scrap is mixed.

Coke price is on the strong side: the second round increases and expands.

The price of coking coal has risen steadily.

For more information on the spot market of iron ore port, see SMM Nonferrous Network:

[daily Review of Iron Ore Market]

Today, even the railway opened high after the all-day shock stronger, late trading high down, the port spot market early quotation raised 25ko30 yuan / ton. Traders, early quotation enthusiasm is higher, as the market continues to strengthen, some merchants raise prices and hesitate to sell. Steel mills, early inquiry activity is high, a few just need to purchase, most of the price increase acceptance is not high, the overall transaction is general. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area is about 705 million yuan / ton, while that of PB powder in Tangshan area is about 715 yuan / ton, which is 2550 yuan / ton higher than that of last Friday, which is the highest spot price at the port in recent six months. Some business feedback, taking into account the recent arrival of Brazilian goods to Hong Kong is not expected, and the price is too high, some steel mills have turned to increase the use of Australian mines and non-mainstream mines. Tangshan and Qian'an recently issued a notice to limit production, but so far there has been no suspension / reduction of blast furnace production, so the demand side of iron ore is unharmed for the time being, and there is still a strong support for prices. However, due to the large increase in spot prices in the market and the port, the transaction did not advance in time, or the price continued to soar to a certain extent. [SMM Steel]

2. Futures: Mo Tao mulberry elm evening, for Xia still full sky.

RB2010 main contract:

 

Nine words to wake up the price to rise, according to the rise to wake up the dreamer!

It rebounded strongly between 3455 and 3544 during the day, closing at 3528.

 

HC2010 main contract:

Feng dysprosium prison decided, still do not waste my string song!

Run between 3358 and 3555 in a day, closing at 3440.

 

Iron ore i2009 main contract:

The spring breeze is proud of the horse's hoof disease, and I can see all the Changan flowers in a day.

It went crazy between 663.5 and 705 in a day, closing at 691.5.

 

Coke J2009 main contract: to win the championship and become a beauty with anger.

Run between 1768.5 and 1844 in a day, closing at 1816.

 

Coking coal JM2009 main contract:

Woman with small feet, make a slim walk!

The day fluctuated strongly between 1122 and 1151, closing at 1139.

 

< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot aspect: the rebound continues to walk, but the range converges.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3490 and 3560.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3390 and 3480.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 680 and 715.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1790 and 1860.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1120 and 1160.

3. Spot operation tips: continue to rebound can be an appropriate amount of inventory.

Thread, hot roll: yellow sand hundred battles wear gold armor, do not break Loulan (RB3610, HC3580) will not return. Near the upper edge value, the position is reduced by an appropriate amount.

Iron ore: high selling and low suction in the range, fast-in and fast-out, falling below 675 single stop loss.

Coke: high selling and low suction trading in the range, falling below more than 1750 single stop loss.

Coking coal: wait-and-see or neutral trading within the range.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3490.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3400.

I2009 main contract: support level 686, 675.

J2009 main contract: support level 1750.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1100.

< 4 > Information and heart words.

1. Economic Office of the Financial and Economic Committee of the National people's Congress: the two sessions of the National people's Congress were postponed, but the annual planning, budget preparation and examination were carried out in an orderly manner

Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the national two sessions were postponed to late May. Li Mingzhi, director of the Economic Office of the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, said on the 16th that the third session of the 13th NPC has been postponed, but the preparation and examination of the annual plan and budget have not stopped and have been moving forward in an orderly manner.

2. [Tangshan limit production from Yanlubei, Qian'an, Luannan and other areas to follow up]

1. Lubei District issued an air pollution tightening notice: from 8: 00 on May 18 to 24:00 on May 31, the following tightening measures will be implemented:

1. In the iron and steel industry, the 360 square meter sintering machine in the southern district of Tangshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. presses 30% of the throttle, while Huaxi Iron and Steel re 4 square meters sintering machine production, Rongcheng Iron and Steel 132 square meters sintering machine press 30% throttle production; the rest of the sintering machine is out of production.

2. Independent rolling (excluding cold rolling) enterprises stop production.

3. The production of the independent lime kiln is stopped (the material in the kiln is cleared).

4. In the foundry industry, the performance grades A and B are not forced to reduce emissions, and the performance evaluation is the suspension of production of C.

2. Measures for the prevention and control of air pollution in Qian'an City: from 8: 00 on May 18 to 24:00 on May 31, Rongxin Steel retained one 200m2 sintering machine production, Xinda Steel retained two 160m2 sintering machines, Jiujiang Iron and Steel retained four 152m2 sintering machines, rolled one steel retained one 90m2 sintering machine production, Songting Iron and Steel retained one 198m2 sintering machine production, Yanshan Iron and Steel retains two 300 square meter sintering machines for production. The rest of the sintering machines are out of production.

3. Luannan, Tangshan will implement the following stringent measures to reduce emissions from 8: 00 on May 18 to 24:00 on May 31, 2020. In the iron and steel industry, Huaxi Iron and Steel retains a 92. 4 square meters sintering machine production, Rongcheng Iron and Steel 132 square meters sintering machine press 30% throttle production; the rest of the sintering machine is out of production. Independent steel rolling enterprises (excluding cold rolling) are evaluated as "good" non-compulsory emission reduction according to the "Technical Guide for differential Management and Control measures in some Industries of Tangshan", while others stop production.

4. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council: strengthen the planning and construction of infrastructure in the western region and speed up the planning and construction of major projects. The guiding opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on promoting the large-scale development of the western region to form a new pattern in the new era pointed out that the planning and construction of infrastructure should be strengthened. We will improve infrastructure accessibility, patency and equalization, and promote green and intensive development. We will strengthen the construction of transport corridors that run from east to west and from north to south, and expand the axis of regional development. We will strengthen the planning and construction of trunk corridors in resource and energy development areas. We will speed up the planning and construction of major projects such as the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, the Yangtze River high-speed railway, the Chongqing-Kunming high-speed railway, and the Xining-Chengdu railway.

5. Ministry of Commerce: China has taken note of the new export control rules issued by the United States against Huawei. The Chinese side firmly opposes this. The Chinese side urges the US side to immediately stop its erroneous practices and create conditions for enterprises to carry out normal trade and cooperation. China will take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.

Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce: this year, China's consumption is expected to reach 45 trillion yuan, making it the largest market in the world, and attracting foreign investment is also expected to exceed that of last year. If China can seize the opportunities brought by the emergence of new formats and models such as live streaming and goods, it can not only boost consumption growth, but also promote consumption upgrading and achieve high-quality development.

6. The "two sessions" are just around the corner, the storm of environmental protection and production restrictions is coming, and the increasing rainfall and superimposed demand in Tangshan area is more likely to return. This week, it rebounded and continued to go, but the space converged (there may be a probability of adjustment on Wednesday, but the range is limited). In short, the author does not have more views to maintain the same.

7. The price of scrap has limited space to go back to rutting, and there is a high probability of going forward after a short break. The view of coke remains unchanged once Ziwei Dong (1760), Hu Xingsen Yaomang (1900).

Iron ore: although the valuation is high, but the Brazilian epidemic outbreak superimposed capital manipulation sentiment for the time being, the range continues to trade too much, fast in and out. A small wave of decline is expected in early June.

 

Zhou Xinyu is attached.

1.. Macroeconomic data are generally neutral. Real estate data, mainly the growth rate of new construction area is still down 18.4%, but the residential construction area increased by 3.8%, further verifying that the demand for real estate stock is not bad! The demand return period is even more expected that the author will not repeat it for N times! Nine words to wake up lost Shi, a large number of people wake up in the dream. On the supply side, with the rapid development of Shijiao (the author believes that scrap steel is likely to be stored in the short term), the cost has moved up sharply, the profits of steel mills have shrunk sharply, and the superimposed operating rate is as high as 90%. In addition, the positive impact of the 75-day military exercise is believed to be in cash. No, no. In addition, the environmental protection and production restrictions of the "two sessions" are already raining. No, no. Why worry about the huge increase in production?!

In short, the author's forward-looking deduction and point of view remain unchanged.

Except for scrap steel and coke, the view of raw material remains unchanged.

Due to the short-term promotion of three factors, iron ore futures still have room to rise, and short sellers have to wait. First, in the outbreak of the epidemic in Brazil, the above news seriously affected the supply of Vale. Second, the military exercises, including and not limited to the impact of transport, increase in transit costs, cargo ships stranded in port, temporary requisition of civilian ships, etc., can happen unexpectedly. Third, the heat of capital manipulation, the intensity of further excitement, of course, the desire to die, must let it crazy!

 

[spot arbitrage training] Black experts teach practical experience and scientific transactions achieve profit growth https://news.smm.cn/news/101063159

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