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[SMM issue present Daily Review] even the rain does not know the spring, a sunny side feels the summer is deep.
May 6,2020 18:36CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

(6 May)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

1. Who: many scientists have studied the gene sequence of the new crown pneumonia virus and are convinced that the new crown pneumonia virus comes from nature. It is important to identify their hosts in order to learn more about how the virus connects humans and animals and how to break down barriers to transmission between humans and animals, with the aim of taking the necessary public health precautions to ensure that this does not happen again.

2. Pasteur Institute, France: a survey by French research institutions found the country's first pet cat to carry the new crown virus. As in previous cases around the world, the cat lived with a new crown patient. Chinese studies have shown that animals such as cats and ferrets are more susceptible to the new crown virus, and a tiger at a zoo has been found infected in New York.

3. Zhong Nanshan: Lianhua Qingwen can improve symptoms, such as general discomfort, two days earlier than the control group. Lianhua Qingwen capsule is more suitable for general new crown pneumonia.

As a new virus, the new crown virus has high infectivity. the best way to protect against it is to keep a safe distance, wear a mask and wash your hands frequently. The survival rate and activity rate of the new crown virus are poor in the high temperature environment. So far, there is no evidence that the new crown virus can be transmitted by mosquitoes.

4. CCTV News: since the outbreak of New Crown pneumonia in the United States, it has been a difficult problem for states to snap up medical supplies on the market. Instead of playing a unified and coordinating role, the US federal government has joined the panic buying force, which has made the situation of the states even more serious. New York Governor Como said a regional procurement mission would be set up, and seven states, including New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, would jointly purchase $5 billion worth of medical supplies to avoid inflating prices.

Domestic epidemic: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe / 5551678 90326.

Overseas outbreaks: continue to spread, with 500000 new holidays. Cumulative confirmed cases / deaths / > 3.657 million / 254728.

Overwhelming priority in the United States: confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / > 1.237 million / 72275.

Economy takes precedence over life: the epidemic has not improved, some states relax restrictions and want to return to work! The U. S. Imperial epidemic bean base inventory "priority" to further consolidate.

Serious countries and regions.

Russia: > 165900 / 10559 1537.

Brazil: > 115000 / 6449 7958.

India: > 49400 / 2966 1695.

Peru: > 51100 / 1444 (death).

Singapore: > 20100 / 788 18.

< 2 > current playback:

1. Since the holiday, the spot market price of rebar has generally risen, with cumulative increases of 30 yuan / ton in Guangzhou in South China, Shanghai in East China and Hangzhou in Hangzhou. The Wuhan market also rose nearly 100 yuan. Today, the hot coil performance is stronger than the rebar, the price rises, the transaction is hot.

Trading volume: high demand toughness.

The market mentality is positive.

Tangshan area billet up 30 to 3120 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

Scrap prices continue to rise, this Shagang increased by 100 yuan / ton.

 

Coke price on the strong side of the operation: Shandong direction of the first round up 50 yuan / ton part of the landing.

The price of coking coal is stable.

Iron ore port spot market is weak and stable, Shandong direction PB powder mine 648,650 yuan / ton transaction. Trading is generally weak.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: within the day between 3371 and 3406 continued to rebound, ending at 3392.

HC2010 main contract: within the day between 3223 and 3264 continued to rebound, ending at 3248.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: within the day between 607.5 and 607.5 horizontal concussion, the end of 610.5.

Coke J2009 main contract: within the day in 1700 to 1730 between the continuation of the rebound, the end of 1708.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1061.5 and 1086.5 rebound, the end of the 1081.

< 3 > current forecast for tomorrow

1. Spot: strong operation.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3350 and 3450.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3180 and 3290.

I2009 main contract: shock between 600 and 625.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1690 and 1760.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1060 and 1100.

3. The spot operation hint: the high storekeeper continues to sell the low suction rolling operation mainly, the late consciousness can still replenish the inventory in appropriate amount.

Thread, hot coil: the previous low multi-single hold, the new single range of high throw low suction rolling operation.

Iron ore: high altitude and low trading in the range.

Coke: more trading in the range.

Coking coal: more trading in the range.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3330.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3170.

I2009 main contract: support level 600, pressure level 618.

J2009 main contract: support level 1690, pressure level 1730.

JM2005 main force contract: support level 1060, pressure level 1100.

< IV > Information and heart language.

1. Financial Commission of the State Council: we must resolutely safeguard the interests of investors, strictly enforce market discipline, and "zero tolerance" for capital market fraud. It is necessary to adhere to the principles of marketization and legalization, improve the information disclosure system, resolutely crack down on illegal and illegal activities such as financial fraud, insider trading, and market manipulation, and resolutely and thoroughly investigate and seriously deal with fraudulent listed companies, intermediary institutions, and individuals. It is necessary to attach great importance to the risk problems of some financial products brought about by price fluctuations in the current international commodity market, improve risk awareness, and strengthen risk control. It is necessary to control spillover, grasp appropriateness, improve professionalism, respect contracts, clarify responsibilities, and protect the legitimate interests of investors.

2. Since the end of March, Xinhua she: has begun to exceed the level of the same period last year, and the demand for electricity has gradually rebounded. Electricity generation continued to grow positively in April. From April 1 to 15, the country's electricity generation increased by 1.2% compared with the same period last year.

3. Real estate.

Kerry: the real estate market continued to recover in April. The overall transaction area of 28 key cities was 23.83 million square meters, an increase of 43% over the previous month, down 5% from the same period last year, significantly exceeding the monthly average in 2020. Luxury housing projects in Shanghai and Shenzhen are selling well in first-tier cities. Shenzhen sold an area of 390000 square meters in April, up 8 per cent from a month earlier and 25 per cent year-on-year. The volume of transactions in second and third-tier cities has rebounded significantly as a result of the concentrated release of the repressed demand for housing in the epidemic situation.

Middle finger Academy: in April, the total amount of land taken by TOP50 real estate enterprises was 310.2 billion yuan, up 0.5 percent from the same period last year, and 105.0 percent from the previous month. The total amount of land taken by top 100 housing enterprises was 388.2 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2 percent over the same period last year, and a month-on-month increase of 108.9 percent. Chen Jinsong, chairman of the world joint bank, said that after the epidemic, the real estate industry will still be a ballast for the Chinese economy, mainly because China's urbanization rate is less than 60%. To reach the 70% urbanization rate, there is still a lot of room to dig, and the urbanization rate is increased, which is inextricably linked to housing.

4. IMF: the economies of Spain and Italy are expected to shrink by 8% and 9.1% respectively in 2020, Germany and France by 7% and 7.2% respectively, and the British economy by 6.5%. Some countries have recently introduced step-by-step measures to lift the ban, some industries in Spain have returned to work, Italy is actively preparing for the resumption of economic activities, and Switzerland will implement the first phase of deregulation measures from the 27th.

5. NHKHK: after talks between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Minister of Economic Regeneration and healthy Labor, it was initially decided to extend the state of emergency until 31 May, after which the proposal will be formally submitted to the Government Advisory Committee.

6. In May, the environmental protection and production restriction documents in Tangshan area landed on the ground, paying attention to the "rainfall". Rainfall is expected to be greater in May than in April.

7. [Xiaoyi 4.3m coke oven production limit impact is about 170000 tons] Xiaoyi Municipal people's Government Office "on the publication of Xiaoyi City to win the Blue Sky Defense War to withdraw from the province's county-level urban ambient air ranking of the last 10 decisive battle plan in 2020" and the requirements of the 2020 City Ecological Environment Protection work Conference, the city's ambient air quality did not withdraw from the province's county (district) ranking last month. The heat preservation measures were taken for the coke oven with a height of 4.3 meters in the carbonization room in the same month. According to SMM research, Xiaoyi 4.3m coke oven involves a total coking capacity of 5.8 million. At present, enterprises have been notified of 48 hours of coke oven, limited production of 50%, through the detection of current and other data monitoring, has been gradually implemented, continuous production limit to the end of the month 26, the impact of production limit after the daily output of 6700 tons, to the end of the month to the total impact of about 170000 tons.

8. Despite the five-day holiday, demand is still impressive. South China Guangzhou spiral storage speed is good, supporting the demand for follow-up. In Hubei Province, the supply side impact during the epidemic period is small, but the post-epidemic demand retaliation period can be expected!

The so-called demand in the market peaked and was further falsified! The author predicts that the continued expansion of demand in the later stage is a high probability event.

With the sharp rise in scrap prices, the independent electric arc furnace steel plant has reached the profit and loss edge line again, and the output expansion is very limited; the blast furnace operation rate (about 87%, Tangshan area about 84%) is close to the high level, only considering the expansion from the start-up rate and limited, it is more likely to increase the scrap addition ratio, but also subject to the limited scrap resources. In short, the supply side expansion is very limited. As for the inventory value interpretation before the analysis, do not repeat! Simple and rough sentence: consider the same mouth sample, now the five major varieties, the total inventory of rebar

In fact, it is also lower than last year's peak! Why is the market sad? Hot roll market into and Xiao he, defeat and Xiao he! The holiday performance is stronger than the rebar so far, in addition to the common factors of rebar, the epidemic situation in major European countries has entered the second stage.

9. Coke fundamentals have been quietly improved, high-speed charges to help costs move up, 4.3 meters coke oven capacity on the road. Pay attention to the rainfall. Iron ore medium-term fundamentals under pressure, short-term dance to rebar. Concerned about the development of the epidemic in Brazil.

10. The rest of the logical thinking remains unchanged.

10. Focus on inventory data tonight and tomorrow afternoon. It is expected that the rate of reduction is less than the market expected probability.

< 5 > prospects for the steel market in the second quarter.

I. Prediction of macro prospects at home and abroad

Domestic macro vision:

First, the epidemic gentleman mistakenly hit the Yellow Crane Tower, counter-cyclical adjustment accelerated.

During the period from the outbreak of the Yellow Crane Tower to the pre-outbreak of the overseas epidemic, the domestic counter-cyclical regulatory factors increased and accelerated, mainly including and not limited to the new infrastructure, tax reduction, reduction of accuracy and other policy incentives to counter epidemic injury and the "six stable" target tasks, even after the "two sessions", because of the overseas epidemic outbreak "six stable" national policy to a certain extent, there is a correction probability, but considering the role of inertia and lag, the second quarter can and must be reflected. That is, strong expectations will be fulfilled in the second quarter.

Second, there is uncertainty in China's monetary policy in the later period.

In order to rescue the current liquidity crisis in the market, and in response to possible economic turmoil, the Fed has launched an unlimited, bottomless QE monetary easing stimulus. There is no doubt that all non-US countries have paid for it, and no matter what measures they take, imported inflation is doomed.

In the short term, stimulated by the Fed's unlimited easing program, suspended the liquidity crisis, calmed the market sentiment is effective, U. S. stocks rebounded sharply.

In the medium term, the main contradiction of the US Emperor is the epidemic situation. At the beginning of the epidemic, there is uncertainty about the extent to which the epidemic has deteriorated, and this year's recession is deterministic. The recession began with an epidemic. Consumers had to spend less because of the epidemic, and producers had to shut down because of the epidemic. Enterprises can not produce normally because of the impact of the epidemic, at the same time, they have to face a sharp reduction in orders brought about by shrinking consumption in the future. Many enterprises will have to face the risk of bankruptcy because of the cash flow crisis caused by the sharp decline in income, and the resulting rising unemployment rate will aggravate the economic recession. These economic activities, the Fed injection of liquidity to promote the role is very limited.

Bet all the money on the bottom of the deposit box on the gambling epidemic! Premature excessive consumption of policy space, what if the epidemic gets out of control? Can the trick of sucking blood and non-American people's sweat in 2008 come true again? Let's see.

In the long run, the great change in the world pattern is deterministic, but who is in charge of uncertainty!

 

Looking at the great China, China's monetary policy is facing a big test again! Is it possible to follow in the footsteps of the non-US developed economies and follow the old path of 2008? Or are you sure to move on? Or is the "six stable national policy" adjusted to "protect finance and employment"?. No, no. Test the wisdom of decision makers again! In short, hard wounds can not escape! After the "two sessions", the monetary policy of a great country is full of uncertainty, and the market is now strongly expected to cut interest rates in April. The G20 meeting delivered 35 trillion yuan in monetary stimulus to deal with the epidemic and hedge against the global recession! Listen to his words and observe his deeds. The author foolishly believes that if the water release of Chinese currency can stop in the direction of world epidemic control and "Belt and Road", that is, to implement a community with a shared future for mankind, and to export inflation to the United States. It's not beautiful! The Federal Reserve needs China to prepare for the policy response to the imported inflation in non-American countries, especially in developing countries, regardless of the consequences of the secondary economic and social disasters brought about by the continuous development of the epidemic.

In short, benevolence sees benevolence and wisdom sees wisdom.

Third: the epidemic sweeps the west wind, how can the secondary disaster endure.

The outbreak period of the overseas epidemic situation, especially the United States Emperor has the tendency to catch up from behind, although the medical level is not moved, but the political and economic interests override the rest of the world.

Above, there is no suspense on the European and American epidemic Cup champion podium! For the good is the happiest, for the evil can not escape. A long way of good reincarnation, the vast sky spared who! Coronavirus is the common enemy of mankind at present, the practice of a community with a shared future for mankind is the truth, and the control of the epidemic bean base is the essential work of the United States, and it is also the concrete practice of being responsible to mankind. The United States not only does not face up to the main contradiction of the epidemic bean base, but gives priority to opening up an unlimited easing policy! If you hurt an "enemy" by 1000, you will injure yourself by 800. The Great Recession and the Great Depression are doomed! Similarly, overseas outbreaks have caused secondary disasters in China. There is no doubt that imports and exports shrank greatly in the second and third quarters.

Fourth: the story of farmers and snakes should not be forgotten.

During the period of the Yellow Crane Tower wearing a cover to fight the epidemic, the United States Emperor etiquette and shame, four-dimensional atelectasis. Many senior officials and dignitaries of the US imperialist government are afraid that China will not be disorderly and gloat, hoping that the epidemic will deal a fatal blow to China's economy and geopolitics, constantly attack and stigmatize the Chinese virus, and engage in political "epidemic poison." through the so-called "Taipei Act," the Senate and the House of Representatives have colluded with the jin Party of the people of Taiwan, colluded, grossly interfered in China's internal affairs and continued to escalate, and the media unscrupulously publicized false information by using a powerful network platform. Militarily, show off your muscles and make threats on the doorstep of China. No, no. It's hard to tell!

After the epidemic, the US Emperor further contained Greater China in an all-round way, and it was by no means alarmist! Chairman Mao's quotation: the United States imperialism will not die, we must always raise the police!

II. Prediction of the fundamentals of the Iron and Steel Industry

1. Der Spiegel is a high judge of supply and demand.

Supply side.

At present, the profit of long-process tonnage steel is 300-400, and some of the original long-process shutdown and maintenance are gradually resuming, even if the steel enterprises shut down by the epidemic in Hubei Province will resume production no later than mid-April. Independent electric arc furnace steel mills lose less than 100 yuan or even some of the steel enterprises that enjoy tax rebates and enjoy local government subsidies due to the downward movement of scrap prices. No, no. It can be determined that production in April has become normal.

Quantitative valuation: 6800 / 700 = 75 million tons

The long process output is 7.11 × 1.1 / 80 / 92 / 6.800, that is, 68 million tons.

The capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace is 70%, 7 million tons.

The demand side.

Throughout the table trading volume in late March and eliminate speculative false demand, and combined with including but not limited to cement prices, concrete mixing stations, pipe pile demand, PC steel bar prices verify each other, and then peep at the start of real estate and steel net export trade considerations. The return period of qualitative demand in April is about 95% of the normal.

Quantitative valuation: 6966 tons 350 = 73.16 million tons

Domestic apparent demand: 7333mm 0.956966 (ten thousand tons)

Net exports are estimated at 3.5 million tons.

The relationship between supply and demand is broadly consistent.

2. Solution of towering floating Cloud in inventory

Seek proof according to the inertia of thinking:

The total inventory of five varieties is 35 million tons, and the total stock of rebar is 19.5 million tons. Even if the data in the table are objective and practical, the maximum inflection point of perennial inventory is still higher than about 10 million tons. Absolute high section of the inventory to the perennial inflection point value at least a month, steel price rebound road is a long way to go!

Reverse thinking:

One is: precisely because the inventory is towering and floating clouds, there is now "land price" steel.

The second is: the steel mill price is determined, with the time dimension for the space dimension.

Third: the so-called inventory towering clouds, just used to the concept, get used to it! Inventory is only a static index of the relationship between supply and demand, and the essence of price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand.

3. The epidemic caused the absence of demand, there is no doubt to rush to make up for classes.

4. There is a high probability of retrograde strength along the Belt and Road.

To sum up, steel prices in April are still negative walking, the upper and lower driving forces are limited, in May into the ready stage, June is expected!

 

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