Brief comment on SMM
Today, the main force of Shanghai copper skyhopping opened at 42410 yuan / ton in the morning. After the opening, the price of copper rose to 42640 yuan / ton in the short term. After a slight fall, it rose to a daily high of 42720 yuan / ton again. Then Shanghai copper turned down, slowly down, closing at 42610 yuan / ton at midday. In the afternoon, copper prices fell to a daily low of 42380 yuan / ton due to short forces. Near the end of the day, copper prices closed at 42510 yuan / ton, up 210 yuan / ton, or 0.50%. The daily position of the main contract of Shanghai Copper decreased by 126 hands to 113000 hands, mainly by short positions, and the trading volume decreased by 4767 hands to 67000 hands. Shanghai Copper 2005 contract significantly reduced positions, day reduction of more than 7000 hands, to 44000 hands, mainly for short reduction; long-month contracts to increase positions at different levels. Shanghai copper jumped high today, mainly affected by the rise in oil prices. API crude oil inventory data for the week of April 24 released today, inventory growth was lower than expected, at the same time, as countries plan to lift anti-epidemic restrictions, the market for crude oil demand recovery expectations strengthened. Oil prices continued last night's rally in the morning, boosting copper prices. Fundamental news also supports copper. First Quantum cut its copper guide this year by 75000 tons to 755000-805000 tons. Today, Shanghai copper closed in Yang, but failed to hold on to 42700 yuan / ton, and then fell back to the 42500 level, and the long and short sides left the scene one after another because of the risk aversion mood before the festival. Today, the Federal Reserve interest rate resolution and the US first quarter GDP data will be released soon, the market has expected the economy to shrink, focusing on how the Fed has used a variety of policy tools to continue to release liquidity to support the economic recovery.
Today, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contract rose 110 yuan / ton to 140 yuan / ton, Pingshui copper transaction price 42780 yuan / ton ~ 42850 yuan / ton, Shengshui copper transaction price 42790 yuan / ton ~ 42860 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper low open high moved up to 42700 yuan / ton. The rebound on the disk has led to the eagerness of the holder to change cash. The opening quotation has been quickly reduced from 140 yuan / ton to 110 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction in the market is concentrated in 110 to 130 yuan / ton. there is almost no price difference between brands. Downstream continues to maintain immediate demand, centralized buyers have been significantly reduced, there are still some importers actively ship part of the low-end import of copper, wet copper slightly lower quotation up 60 ~ 80 yuan / ton. Copper futures performance on the strong side, in 42000 yuan / ton above shock finishing, holders near the water near 42000 yuan has no intention to continue to reduce prices, so the lower source of flat water copper supply has been few people out, traders based on pre-festival risk aversion factors, few receiving groups, and the festival period is still expected to have a large number of imported copper to the warehouse, so the final trading time before May Day will be more obvious, risk aversion will be the main body of trading guidance.
Today, Guangdong electrolytic copper spot contract rose 240-250, the average price fell 10; wet copper rose 200-210, flat. The average price of electrolytic copper rose 395 yuan / ton to 42940 yuan / ton, and the average price of wet copper rose 405 yuan / ton to 42900 yuan / ton. In the spot market, there are 2 working days left from the May Day holiday. Although some businesses want to offer goods, more and more shippers continue to lower their prices, and the desire to basically complete replenishment purchases downstream is not strong. As a result, today's rising water continues to decline, good copper has an early trading price of 280 yuan / ton to 240 yuan / ton; Pingshui copper dropped from 250 yuan / ton to 220 yuan / ton, and even heard a small amount of 200 yuan / ton trading price. Wet copper supply shortage is only a small drop of 10 yuan / ton. Overall, we think the rising water will continue to fall tomorrow, and there may be a small decline in the first week after the festival, but the decline is expected to be small.
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Today's warehouse receipt quotes US $85-95 / ton, bill of lading quotes US $80-90 / ton, QP June. LME0-3 discount US $28 / ton, import profit in the vicinity of 60 yuan / ton.
April 29, 2020: today's warehouse receipt quoted 85-95 US dollars / ton, bill of lading quoted 80-90 US dollars / ton, QP June. LME0-3 discount US $28 / ton, import profit in the vicinity of 60 yuan / ton. Although the ratio of June to June improved further today, demand was lukewarm, and transactions in the foreign trade market were limited.
In recent months, the goods are basically out, and the market offer is concentrated in the bill of lading arriving in Hong Kong in the middle and late May, and the traders have no intention of reducing the price. Buyers' enthusiasm for receiving goods is also limited. First, the rise and decline in the domestic trade market affects the market's price expectations after May Day. Second, some traders tightened their funds as a result of concentrated receipt of goods last week. Warehouse receipt prices remain high, with a small number of transactions and good copper at $95 per tonne.
On the whole, the activity of the foreign trade market before the festival decreased, and the market transaction was still a high stalemate. The transaction price of fire good copper warehouse bill is about 95 US dollars / ton, mainstream fire method 90 US dollars / ton, wet method 85 US dollars / ton, good copper bill of lading 90 US dollars / ton, mainstream fire 85 US dollars / ton, wet 80 US dollars / ton.
LME copper stocks today were 256100 tonnes, down 50 tonnes, or 0.02 per cent, from the previous trading day.
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