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[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190 708: fundamentals are still supported, iron ore has rebounded strongly
Jul 8,2019 17:57CST
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In terms of volume and price: RB1910 closed up 8 yuan / ton to close at 3992 yuan / ton; HC1910 closed up 13 yuan / ton to close at 3871 yuan / ton; I1909 closed up 31. 5 yuan / ton to 861 yuan / ton; J1909 closed down 17. 5 yuan / ton to 2122.5 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. In terms of position data, RB1910 handled 3.35 million transactions, with positions reduced by 105000 to 2.4 million; I1909, 2.82 million, increased by 57000 to 1.48 million; in terms of capital flows, RB1910 had a net outflow of 319 million yuan today; and I1909 had a net inflow of 750 million yuan. Viewpoint: shock operation. Today, iron ore fell sharply on Friday, showing a stable rebound trend, the strong rebound of iron ore on the one hand due to the last Thursday, Friday two days fell too fast and too fierce, there is a need for technical rebound; On the other hand, iron ore itself is not bad, the latest port inventory data is still declining, supply and demand tight pattern has not changed in the short term, and the current basis has maintained a deep discount state, even after today's sharp rise, the basis rate is still maintained at 8.32%, compared with other varieties, in a high level, does not have the basis of a trend decline, therefore, today's rebound is not surprising. However, the government has stepped in to regulate prices, later may be difficult to appear in the early stage of the rapid rise, more high shock operation. Compared with iron ore, although the thread rises slightly, but the rebound strength is insufficient, the position is greatly reduced, is still a concussion operation process, considering that the later environmental protection expectation is still there, the price is still supported, it is expected that there is not much room to continue to go down. after building a rising relay platform, there may still be room for upward movement. Coke today was affected by the third round of price reduction comprehensive landing news, today appeared to make up and down, at the same time, more futures water also restricted the price, but after three rounds of raising and lowering coke prices have been close to the cost line, and coke enterprise inventory as a whole is not large, the market expectations have changed, still to do more on the low thinking. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3930, 4200); I1909 contract range (800900), the middle line multiple single light position holding, short-term can be high sell low suction. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.

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