Current Review (3 July)
< 1 > spot aspect.
Today, the overall price of the steel market has made a sharp reversal: a decline of about 30%. Trading volume: bad reviews. The price of billet in Tangshan area has dropped by 40 to 3630 yuan per ton.
Market mentality: pessimistic, stable, positive coexistence.
Phase II steel.
Black system is generally weak, iron ore alone Yangko.
RB1910 main contract: the situation endangers 4000.
During the day, there was a substantial increase or decrease in positions and a final increase in positions to 25764 hands, with a downward shock between 4098 and 40001 during the day, and a final closing of 4030. The main organization within the day clearance single 21608 hands.
HC1910 main contract:
During the day, a huge reduction in positions, tail reduction to 43574, within the day between 3960 to 3867 shock downward, closing 3910. The main organization has a net increase of 5223 hands per day.
Iron ore l1909 main contract: willful with fear
During the day, there was a huge reduction in positions and tail positions to 90416 hands, with a wide range of strong oscillations between 888.5 and 911.5 during the day and a close of 908.5. The main organization has a net increase of 5373 hands per day.
Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:
During the day, there was a substantial increase in positions and tail positions to 20588 hands, with a wide range of strong oscillations between 2091 and 2137 during the day, with a final closing of 2102. The main organization has a net increase of 1429 hands per day.
Coking coal JM1909 main contract:
During the day, there was a small increase in positions and tail positions to 7894 hands, followed by a downward shock between 1403.5 and 1371.5 during the day, with a final closing of 1374. The main organization within the day clearance single 3643 hands.
Forecast for tomorrow.
1. On the spot side. Wide concussion, high probability.
two。 Futures: same as yesterday.
RB1910 main contract: between 3960 and 4100 concussion.
HC1910 main contract: between 3850 and 3960 concussion.
Iron ore L1909 main contract: 880 to 920 between concussion.
Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2080 and 2150 concussion.
Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1360 and 1430 concussion.
< 4 > suggestions for current operation:
1. Spot: same as yesterday.
In practice, the author recommends that those who have completed the replenishment of inventory at a low price:
Every high appropriate amount of inventory reduction, large reversal (100 yuan / ton) appropriate amount of replenishment inventory.
Non-implementation of the author's advice: smooth operation is appropriate, waiting for a big return dare to replenish inventory.
The difference increases, the short rhythm wide amplitude concussion big probability.
In terms of the end of the finished product:
Short rhythm: high throwing and low suction rolling operation is appropriate in the interval. The trend is single, waiting for the return of the target position before intervention.
On the raw material side.
Iron ore L1909 contract: continue in the range, every time near the value near the empty, the lower value near the cloth more. Fast-in and fast-out is appropriate (control the position, effectively break through the 920 stop loss, fall before dawn is the saddest).
Demon Jiao J1909 contract:
It is appropriate for the trend to intervene gradually on the low side.
Coking coal JM1909 contract: maintain the same.
It is appropriate to wait and see or intervene in the vicinity of the value (although the author says that it is still tasteless to eat in the vicinity of the value).
< 5 > Heart language and information.
1. Focus on tomorrow afternoon inventory data sunrise on the current disturbance.
It is estimated that the probability of increasing the social database and decreasing the factory warehouse is large.
two。 Spot reversal cumulative about 100, is expected to look back at the range of 100 to 150. Tangshan area billet 3600 strong support. Keep picking wild flowers by the fence, inadvertently see Nanshan mentality. Don't dance with the market wall rider!
3. Tangshan area environmental protection to limit production no matter how the market is not expected to intimidate! It is difficult to change the nature of thunderstorms, only
It's a quantitative difference. Grasp the main contradiction is the hard road, do not cover your ears and steal the bell.
4. Shandong Province: the target of reducing the net pressure of coal consumption by 50 million tons in five years. Jiao every turn is not a dream.
5. Iron ore.
Although the mine Biao every day, but the fundamentals are not as good as the previous period is indisputable. The disk is completely dominated by financial sentiment, especially after riding the wall to see 1000 points, 1200 … The main cause is to induce scattered waves and push waves after waves.
In short, the benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom.
With the past words and information of the week.
1. Coke: spot the second round of 100 yuan / ton landing, individual steel mills take an inch to raise the third round; the disk surface is expected to be supported by Shanxi environmental protection production limit. The short rhythm game intensifies.
two。 Iron ore:
Port spot 62%PB powder 900 to 910 yuan / ton, transaction weak, according to 910 yuan / ton discount 89.
Iron ore diamond price, how can longevity test! The disk is dominated entirely by financial sentiment. Although Tangshan environmental protection to limit production, storage and stolen start-up phenomenon, after all, compared with the previous high demand for iron ore exhaustion, the basis of the short-and medium-term weakness is more certain. According to SMM Nonferrous Network reported that the arrival volume from June 23 to 29 increased by 1.26 million tons over the previous period. During the period, the departure of Australian melon increased significantly by 1.81 million tons to 15.93 million tons, Brazil increased slightly by 340000 tons to 7.33 million tons, and shipments of Australian melon and Brazil gradually recovered.
Iron ore shipment deduction (incremental is on the way):
Early iron ore prices around $80, Australian melon son is suspected of intentionally reducing. Ask whether it is more likely to continue to reduce the amount of money than $120, or whether it is more likely to increase day and night.
Brazil's Tamshui River tailings is on its way. How far can the price of iron ore and diamond go?
3. In view of the fact that individual steel enterprises work against the wind and start work secretly, it is reported that Tangshan environmental protection production restrictions began to check historical data (ground pound data, capacity certificates, etc.) and beat snakes by seven inches.
4. After the normal return adjustment of spot and futures is completed, tamp the forward step. The return of demand is due in July and is expected in August. Don't worry about gains and losses!
Warm reminder: the rainy season disturbance demand is basically over in mid-July.
With yesterday's heart words and information.
1. As the world focused on the G20 summit, the dust settled between the two heads of state on the trade friction between China and the United States, and the result was that the handshake was not reconciled, which was in line with the author's expectations.
Market interpretation is divided: everyone interprets the good.
The author bluntly interprets: only from the Sino-US trade friction stagnant at the origin, neutral; but the steel price fully reflects the optimistic expectations of the negotiations, only from this point of view is less than expected, is neutral and empty.
two。 Verification of the proposition of environmental protection and limited production in Jiangsu province, a big province of thread production.
The author has a dull understanding that the counterparts of environmental protection and thunderstorm in Tangshan are not only beautiful and moving excuses for air pollution, but also the main cause of supply-side reform results and policy combination. Similarly, based on the overall macroeconomic considerations, policy does not tolerate steel price sub-bomb flying is a high probability event. Therefore, Jiangsu Province's large-scale environmental protection and production restrictions are bound to be a high probability event, and the market copying is more likely to be a lot of silver. In short, the benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom.
3. There is a good chance of returning to the fundamentals of the game in the second half of the week.
4. China's manufacturing PMl49.4%, was flat in June compared with the previous month.
5. Raw material end.
Spot prices rose 15 to 25 yuan / ton, 62% PBpowder 870 yuan / ton, mine discount 73 yuan / ton.
Late interpretation of iron ore:
5.1. The actual environmental protection production limit area Tangshan area affects the production capacity of 5 million tons / month, even if the environmental protection production limit is closed in August, the blast furnace production cycle is calculated according to 25 days. That is, demand was reduced by about 15 million tons in July and August.
5.2. Australian guar early 85 US dollars / ton, shipment reduction is suspected of commercial operation; 120 yuan / ton above the probability of additional issuance is on the way; Brazil Vale recovery increment is also on the way.
5.3. The price of iron ore and diamonds is on the way.
In a word, at present, the failure of high demand and high discount is obvious, and the probability of shipment increases in the later period. Although the current market is one-sided, but the author tends to high-altitude strategy, control the position can be.
Although the spot price is stable and weak, but Shanxi environmental protection to limit production probability is on the way. The author once said that the single strategy will remain the same, do not dance with the hindsight of riding the wall.
6. Steel RB1910 contract, if refused to reverse, the uplink space is very limited (4200 to 4250); if the normal reversal, the later can be expected.
The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. See the weekly reviews on June 1 and June 28 for details.
Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781
(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)