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[SMM Black Review] there are 10, 000 strong trees in front of the sick tree
Jul 2,2019 18:37CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Current Review (2 July)



< 1 > spot aspect.

Today, the overall price of the steel market has made a big mistake: the decline ranges from 10 to 80. Trading volume: bad reviews. The price of billet in Tangshan area has dropped by 30 to 3670 yuan per ton.

Market mentality: high cautious owner, speculative demand panic.



Phase II steel.


Black system as a whole: the end of the material is weak shock, bifocal strong shock, iron ore continues to be capricious.



RB1910 main contract:


During the day, a huge reduction in positions, tail reduction to 71792 hands, in the day between 4117 and 4023 shock downward, closing 41053. The main organization has a net increase of 25739 hands per day.


HC1910 main contract:


During the day, a huge reduction in positions, tail reduction to 66360 hands, in the day between 3981 and 3882 shock downward, closing 3918. The main organization within the day clearance single 2393 hands.


Iron ore l1909 main contract:


During the day, there was a huge reduction in positions and tail positions to 59016 hands, and continued between 869.5 and 904.5 during the day. The main organization has a net increase of 37548 hands per day.



Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:


During the day, there was a huge reduction in positions and tail positions to 44948 hands, with a strong shock between 2088 and 2121 during the day, with a close of 2110.5. The main organization within the day clearance single 1186 hands.


Coking coal JM1909 main contract:


During the day, a small reduction, tail reduction to 15114 hands, within the day between 1393 and 1410 narrow range strong shock, closing 1400. The main organization within the day clearance single 739 hands.


Forecast for tomorrow.


1. Spot: weak and stable probability.


two。 Futures:


RB1910 main contract: between 3960 and 4100 concussion.


HC1910 main contract: between 3850 and 3960 concussion.


Iron ore L1909 main contract: 880 to 920 between concussion.


Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2080 and 2150 concussion.


Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1360 and 1430 concussion.


< 4 > suggestions for current operation:


1. Spot: unchanged.

In practice, the author recommends that those who have completed the replenishment of inventory at a low price:

Every high appropriate amount of inventory reduction, large reversal (100 yuan / ton) appropriate amount of replenishment inventory.

Non-implementation of the author's advice: smooth operation is appropriate, waiting for a big return dare to replenish inventory.


two。 Futures.


In terms of the end of the finished product:

Short rhythm: the high vacancy order gradually leaves the game on the low side.

Single trend: wait for the target position to intervene. Don't dance with the hindsight.

Trend strategy: according to the corresponding period steel position of 50% of the total inventory, gradually short the RB2001 contract or RB1910 contract (the author tends to be far away).



On the raw material side.


Iron ore L1909 contract: continue in the range, every time near the value near the empty, the lower value near the cloth more. It is advisable to fast-in and fast-out (to control your position).



Demon Jiao J1909 contract:


It is appropriate to throw high and low absorption in the range of 2080 to 2160.


Coking coal JM1909 contract: maintain the same.

It is appropriate to wait and see or intervene in the vicinity of the value (although the author says that it is still tasteless to eat in the vicinity of the value).


< 5 > Heart language and information.

1. Coke: spot the second round of 100 yuan / ton landing, individual steel mills take an inch to raise the third round; the disk surface is expected to be supported by Shanxi environmental protection production limit. The short rhythm game intensifies.

two。 Iron ore:

Port spot 62%PB powder 900 to 910 yuan / ton, transaction weak, according to 910 yuan / ton discount 89.

Iron ore diamond price, how can longevity test! The disk is dominated entirely by financial sentiment. Although Tangshan environmental protection to limit production, storage and stolen start-up phenomenon, after all, compared with the previous high demand for iron ore exhaustion, the basis of the short-and medium-term weakness is more certain. According to SMM Nonferrous Network reported that the arrival volume from June 23 to 29 increased by 1.26 million tons over the previous period. During the period, the departure of Australian melon increased significantly by 1.81 million tons to 15.93 million tons, Brazil increased slightly by 340000 tons to 7.33 million tons, and shipments of Australian melon and Brazil gradually recovered.

Iron ore shipment deduction (incremental is on the way):

Early iron ore prices around $80, Australian melon son is suspected of intentionally reducing. Ask whether it is more likely to continue to reduce the amount of money than $120, or whether it is more likely to increase day and night.

Brazil's Tamshui River tailings is on its way. How far can the price of iron ore and diamond go?

3. In view of the fact that individual steel enterprises work against the wind and start work secretly, it is reported that Tangshan environmental protection production restrictions began to check historical data (ground pound data, capacity certificates, etc.) and beat snakes by seven inches.

4. After the normal return adjustment of spot and futures is completed, tamp the forward step. The return of demand is due in July and is expected in August. Don't worry about gains and losses!


Warm reminder: the rainy season disturbance demand is basically over in mid-July.


With yesterday's heart words and information.

1. As the world focused on the G20 summit, the dust settled between the two heads of state on the trade friction between China and the United States, and the result was that the handshake was not reconciled, which was in line with the author's expectations.

Market interpretation is divided: everyone interprets the good.

The author bluntly interprets: only from the Sino-US trade friction stagnant at the origin, neutral; but the steel price fully reflects the optimistic expectations of the negotiations, only from this point of view is less than expected, is neutral and empty.

two。 Verification of the proposition of environmental protection and limited production in Jiangsu province, a big province of thread production.

The author has a dull understanding that the counterparts of environmental protection and thunderstorm in Tangshan are not only beautiful and moving excuses for air pollution, but also the main cause of supply-side reform results and policy combination. Similarly, based on the overall macroeconomic considerations, policy does not tolerate steel price sub-bomb flying is a high probability event. Therefore, Jiangsu Province's large-scale environmental protection and production restrictions are bound to be a high probability event, and the market copying is more likely to be a lot of silver. In short, the benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom.

3. There is a good chance of returning to the fundamentals of the game in the second half of the week.

4. China's manufacturing PMl49.4%, was flat in June compared with the previous month.

5. Raw material end.

Iron ore:

Spot prices rose 15 to 25 yuan / ton, 62% PBpowder 870 yuan / ton, mine discount 73 yuan / ton.

Late interpretation of iron ore:

5.1. The actual environmental protection production limit area Tangshan area affects the production capacity of 5 million tons / month, even if the environmental protection production limit is closed in August, the blast furnace production cycle is calculated according to 25 days. That is, demand was reduced by about 15 million tons in July and August.

5.2. Australian guar early 85 US dollars / ton, shipment reduction is suspected of commercial operation; 120 yuan / ton above the probability of additional issuance is on the way; Brazil Vale recovery increment is also on the way.

5.3. The price of iron ore and diamonds is on the way.

In a word, at present, the failure of high demand and high discount is obvious, and the probability of shipment increases in the later period. Although the current market is one-sided, but the author tends to high-altitude strategy, control the position can be.



Although the spot price is stable and weak, but Shanxi environmental protection to limit production probability is on the way. The author once said that the single strategy will remain the same, do not dance with the hindsight of riding the wall.


6. Steel RB1910 contract, if refused to reverse, the uplink space is very limited (4200 to 4250); if the normal reversal, the later can be expected.


The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. See the weekly reviews on June 1 and June 28 for details.



Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781


(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)

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