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[SMM analysis]
Jun 27,2019 15:49CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM6 27 news: after four consecutive days of brief pullback, iron ore continued to rebound today, opening high in intraday trading, once rose to 838.5 yuan / ton, by the end of the day, iron ore closed at 821.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.27%.

SMM believes that driven by fundamental and macro resonance, iron ore continues to soar, the main contract I1909 touched 820, breaking the new high in nearly five years. The continued sharp decline in iron ore port stocks and the current high demand from steel mills are the main reasons why the current iron ore market continues to hit new highs.

According to SMM data, a total of 74 ships arrived at China's major ports from 6.16 to 6.22, and the arrival volume is expected to be 11.06 million tons, which is 1.38 million tons lower than that of the previous period. Tangshan port arrival continued to decline, and Shandong individual ports increased. During the period, exports from Australia are expected to fall by 1.02 million tons to 14.12 million tons, while those from Brazil are expected to increase by 2.17 million tons to 6.99 million tons. The arrival of ships in this period continues to decline, the port mainstream resources are not abundant to continue to provide some support to the spot price of the port.

Market voice:

Meilya futures: Vale Brucutu mining area full resumption of production, Brazilian shipments picked up, coupled with Tangshan environmental production restrictions, downstream steel mills procurement willingness is not strong, the marginal demand for raw materials become weak, the port transaction is general, mining prices are operating under pressure. However, the port inventory is still low, the arrival volume is still lower than the previous month, the mine price is still supported, and the basis is relatively large, it is expected that the short-term disk high operation, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see, pay attention to the implementation of production restrictions and inventory situation.

Myco Futures: iron ore, recent shipments and arrival have rebounded, Australia phased delivery season, the supply side has slightly improved; demand, steel mills limited production spot transactions weakened, but inventory is low to maintain production still need rigid procurement, port daily average port volume has dropped from the high, port inventory this week significantly narrowed, short-term or a small accumulation of pressure; On the whole, the iron ore gap is difficult to make up for in the short term, and the trend is not over, but the demand for iron ore is weakened under the expected production limit, and the steel ore ratio has room for repair.

Huatai futures: the production restriction policy continues to exert pressure on the disk, which fell slightly by 0.25% yesterday. In the near future, the sentiment on the market is weak, affected by production restrictions, lack of driving force to rise in mining prices, profits continue to repair, driven by profits, there may be production restrictions in Tangshan and iron ore demand in other areas to maintain a strong situation, in addition, from the implementation of the production restriction policy in Tangshan, this round of production restrictions are relatively strict, but before that, some steel mills had planned to be overhauled in June, and the actual impact may not be as good as expected. Full attention should be paid to the actual impact of production restriction in Tangshan. The supply gap and the increase in steel mill profits will become the driving force to promote the rise in mining prices, bulls can continue to maintain, call back to choose the opportunity to buy.

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