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[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190 612: bad news ferments, black rally takes a break
Jun 12,2019 17:31CST
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Source:SMM
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In terms of volume and price: RB1910 closed down 57 yuan / ton to 3776 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day; HC1910 closed down 35 yuan / ton to 3620 yuan / ton; I1909 closed up 3.5 yuan / ton to close at 764 yuan / ton; J1909 closed down 94 yuan / ton to 2114.5 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. In terms of position data, RB1910 handled 3.39 million transactions, with positions reduced by 107000 to 2.52 million; I1909, 2.47 million, increased by 43000 to 1.72 million; in terms of capital flows, RB1910 had a net outflow of 443 million yuan today; and I1909 had a net inflow of 351 million yuan. Viewpoint: shock operation. Today, a number of bad news fermentation, macro, in May a number of macro data lower than expected; industry, this week, social inventory, steel plant inventory, production data have increased, Vale CEO in a week of major shareholder meeting said that will increase production in Caracas dam, coke, Shanxi steel mills on coke procurement price up 100, also triggered the market for further downward concerns about spot. Under the bad news, today, all varieties have weakened, but the specific performance is different: Coke has been smashed, panic spread, become the biggest decline in the variety; thread, hot roll performance fell, but the decline is limited, on the one hand, because the price elasticity of the screw is small, on the other hand, the long chips are also more concentrated. Ore is the most resistant to decline, intraday once refreshed the previous high, mainly due to the existence of ore fundamentals, short-term impact on the disk, but do not change the medium-and long-term iron ore supply falls short of demand logic; although today's prices fell under the influence of bad news, but thread profits are low, the basis difference remains high, there is support for prices, short-term brake space is limited. Bifocal aspect, coke steel game has intensified, short-term or maintain the concussion pattern. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3750, 3950); I1909 contract range (680800), short-term wait-and-see is appropriate, waiting for the long opportunity after the disk stabilizes. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.

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