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Wu Anjun Metal trend Investment Strategy
Jun 2,2019 19:31CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Copper: wide range concussion, wait and see

Fundamentals: supply and demand to maintain a tight balance, the short-term negative factors have been released. Neutral.

Capital side: the main position is net empty, empty is reduced. It's empty.

Technical side: the quantitative hedge system shows the signal of opening multiple positions on the low side. Too many.

Stocks: LME copper stocks were reduced by 575 to 185000 tons on May 29, compared with 15697 tons to 172266 tons in the previous period. Neutral.

Conclusion: it is expected that copper supply and demand will be in a state of tight balance and inventory will be at a historically low level in 2019. The operating range of copper prices this year is estimated to be between 46000 and 52000 yuan / ton. At present, the range is wide and volatile, and the trend band is mainly on the sidelines for the time being.


Aluminum: the trend is more single stop profit, now high short

Supply side: Qinghai Baihe Aluminum began to resume production in April, Weiqiao Aluminum Industry has announced a plan to resume production in May 540000 tons, in addition, Guangxi Suyuan, Debao 100 mines and other land to resume production or increase production. The increase in the supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be about 1.2 million tons in 2019, and the rate of increase in supply will rise to about 3.4 per cent. Downward pressure is still high.

Demand side: it is expected that the increment of 2019 electrolytic aluminum demand is close to 500000 tons, and the demand growth rate will further slow down to about 1.2%. Spot prices began to focus on 13820 to 13840 yuan per ton in Shanghai, 13820 to 13840 yuan per ton in Wuxi and 13840 to 13850 yuan per ton in Hangzhou. At present, the market supply is more abundant, the trading between traders is more active, the downstream is still mainly on-demand procurement, the receipt of goods is flat. The overall transaction in East China is general. Aluminum is currently weak supply and demand, March and April traditional consumer season will pass, the current price may become the key point of short selling in the market.

Conclusion: Shanghai aluminum supply is expected to show a surplus of 700000 tons in 2019. The quantization system sends out a short signal at 14310 o'clock on May 28. Therefore, it should be in the air.


Zinc: the trend is empty and single, and the trend has to wait.

Fundamentals: zinc prices are expected to fall under expectations of a return to production, but a recent report by (WBMS), the World Bureau of Metals Statistics, said the global zinc market had a supply shortfall of 36800 tons from January to February 2019, compared with a glut of 71600 tons for the whole of last year. Neutral treatment.

Capital side: the main net long position, more reduction. Too many.

Technical side: quantitative hedge system has empty single signal has stopped profit. Too many.

Inventory: LME zinc stocks decreased by 625 tons to 101300 tons on May 29, and zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 0 tons to 15208 tons on May 29 compared with the previous day. Too many.

Conclusion: the original space single signal has stopped, and the trend has to wait.


Lead: the trend is empty and single, and the trend has to wait.

Global refined lead is expected to be short of 125000 tons this year and 45000 tons in 2018, according to data released by the international lead and zinc research group (ILZSG). Recently, lead prices have bottomed out, and the enthusiasm of shippers has increased. Wait for the trend to appear.


Nickel: empty single stop profit in the early stage, now wait and see

At present, nickel prices are strongly supported, but from the stainless steel inventory point of view downstream consumption is still not good. Affected by the Indonesian violence, although prices rushed up for a day, but after all, it has not become a hot spot of speculation. At present, there is a dilemma between the top and the bottom, and wait and see.


Iron ore: the trend is more single stop profit, now high shock wait and see

Fundamentals: affected by the mining disaster port prices rose sharply, and it is difficult to resume production in the short term. Too many.

Capital side: the net position of the main force is more, more than increase. Too many.

Technical side: quantitative hedge system holding multi-position has stopped profit. Neutral.

Inventory: Port inventory of 127.67 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.4 million tons, a decrease of 31.22 million tons compared with the same period last year, 64 sample steel plant inventory increased by 1.18 million tons, inventory to steel mills transfer factor. Neutral.

Conclusion: in the early stage, more than one single has stopped profit, now high shock, wait-and-see.


Rebar: trend shorting

Fundamentals: rebar futures main contract narrow range concussion. Production has been rising, while inventories have narrowed significantly from a month earlier, and the steel market will enter the off-season in June. The profits of steel mills have expanded sharply recently. At present, rebar is high price, high output, high profit, and downstream demand will enter the off-season. It's empty.

Capital: in recent days, many positions have been reduced and empty positions have been increased. It's empty.

Technical side: Wu Anjun quantitative hedge trading system has sent an empty single signal at 3775 on May 31. It's empty.

Inventory: 5.6983 million tons in 35 major cities across the country, down 4.66 percent from the previous month and up 0.69 percent from the same period last year. Neutral.

Conclusion: at present, the rebar is of high price, high output and high profit. With the decline of high demand, it may accelerate into the stage of unilateral correction, so it should be short on the high side.

Wu Anjun brief introduction: good at colored, black and other futures varieties, with the combination of fundamentals and quantitative technology interpretation, and provide operational guidance.

Wu Anjun focused on quantitative research for the whole decade, developed a number of quantitative hedge systems and participated in the national futures competition to achieve steady profits. Good at finding the correct medium-and long-term multi-empty direction from the fundamentals of each variety, using the quantitative model to carry on the whole procedure transaction. On the basis of accurately grasping the general trend of the market, more accurately capture the entry point and exit point, often double or several times the profit effect.

Statement: Wu Anjun's point of view is shared with you and does not constitute investment advice for you. Operate accordingly, at your own risk! If you need major investment advice for other varieties, please call.

For guidance from Wu Anjun, please contact: Wu Tingting: 021 51595784 13795448891

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