Metals News
[SMM Analysis] can Shanghai Copper reverse the decline in short-term copper prices at the beginning of the year?
Jan 3,2019
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

After a deep fall on the first trading day of the New year, Shanghai Copper jumped low again, the lowest level since the end of November 2018, and the Shanghai Copper 1903 contract was at a low of 46960 yuan per ton today. Although the leaders of China and the United States exchanged congratulatory messages to show friendship in the New year, this positive effect does not seem to have brought strong support to copper prices. Copper prices are open to show green in the New year. Have copper prices taken a turn for the better in the near future?.

From a macro point of view, Trump asked the Capitol Hill leadership to return to the White House on Friday, January 4, to discuss government financing and border security, with the aim of ending the government shutdown for the 12th day. The US federal government, which has been shut down because of a wall, seems to have finally had the hope of restarting its efforts to boost the US dollar. In addition, the economic data of many European countries released yesterday were weak, and the euro and sterling plummeted. Market investors are turning their attention to the safe-haven currency, the dollar. Us crude rose 1.14% last night due to a sharp drop in supply, but today it basically gave up its overnight gains. On the domestic front, China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMI data both fell below the line of prosperity and decline, undermining market confidence.

From a fundamental point of view, domestic stocks last week increased by nearly 8000 tons to 119000 tons, inventories are still low. CSPT finalized the copper concentrate TC floor price of 92 US dollars / ton in the first quarter, up 2 US dollars / ton compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter, the purchasing desire of the smelter was not strong, the spot transaction atmosphere was general, and the downstream replenishment was on the low side. This year's Spring Festival reserve does not seem to see lively weather, terminal consumption in the first quarter is relatively light, resulting in a reduction in downstream processing orders.

From the technical point of view, Shanghai copper jumped to form a gap, and could not be supported by any of the recent EMA, and was below the lower rail under the Brin curve. MACD showed that the green column was elongated, the DIF curve was below the DEA curve, and the downward slope was larger than the DEA curve. The opening of KDJ expanded downward, approaching 20.

SMM believes that from the current point of view, there are many bearish signals, copper prices are difficult to support for the time being.

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