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In 2026, the correction in lithium carbonate prices drove up lithium battery production costs. Coupled with uncertainties in lithium resources supply, cost pressure across the new energy industry became increasingly prominent. Leveraging the advantages of abundant sodium resources, balanced distribution, and controllable costs, sodium-ion batteries have leapt from being a “backup option” for lithium batteries to a key direction for industry breakthrough...

Mar 20, 2026 15:00

[SMM Analysis] 2026 Sodium-Ion Battery Competitive Landscape: Na‑ion Pioneers vs Lithium Battery Giants

【SMM Analysis】Middle East Turmoil Triggers Trade "Mismatch": China Accelerates to Fill 2.3 MT Supply Vacuum in SEA

Middle East tensions have sparked a massive steel trade "mismatch." Iran's blocked exports created a 2.3-million-ton billet vacuum in Southeast Asia, while the Red Sea crisis stalled China's flat steel shipments to the Gulf. Consequently, China and India are rapidly absorbing SEA's diverted billet orders. SMM projects that blocked flat steel returning to China's domestic market, combined with surging overseas billet demand, will accelerate the narrowing of the domestic HRC-rebar spread.

Mar 20, 2026 09:51

Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports

SMM, March 20: Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 mt in January, down 0.1% MoM and up 17.1% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 202,000 mt, up 6.6% MoM and up 0.7% YoY. In January-February 2026, China’s cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled about 391,000 mt, up 8.0% YoY. Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 13,000 mt in January, down 64.6% MoM and up 56.6% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 10,000 mt, down 24.6% MoM and up 187.9% YoY. In January-February, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled about 23,000 mt, up about 94.8% YoY. Net imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 176,000 mt in January, up 15.9% MoM and up 14.9% YoY; in February, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 192,000 mt, up 9.0% MoM and down 2.6% YoY. In January-February, China’s cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 367,000 mt, up 5.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) Although China’s net primary aluminum imports maintained positive growth in January-February 2026, expectations of a sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China will challenge this situation. As of March 20, SMM’s Japan MJP spot premiums for aluminum ingot stood at $255/mt, up 45.7% from month-end February. Currently, some market participants were quoting Japan MJP CIF premiums for Q2 at around $350-353/mt, up about 80% from $195/mt in Q1; the US Midwest DDP aluminum premium stood at 105.25¢/lb, equivalent to $2,110/mt. As of March 13, Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid premiums stood at $470/mt, up about 27.0% from month-end February, while Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid premiums stood at $375/mt, up 27.2% from month-end February. The sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China is expected to divert some aluminum originally planned to flow into China, and China’s net aluminum imports are expected to decline YoY in 2026. The reason for this phenomenon lies in expectations of a contraction in aluminum supply outside China caused by reduced aluminum supply in the Middle East. As of March 20, Qatar Aluminum announced that it would maintain a 60% operating rate, involving 260,000 mt of shut capacity; Bahrain Aluminum announced the shutdown of Lines 1-3, involving about 310,000 mt of capacity. In total, 570,000 mt of aluminum capacity in the Middle East has been affected. Iran is at the center of the conflict, and the stability of its production faces severe challenges. In addition, some raw and auxiliary materials in the Middle East rely on imports, and the geopolitical conflict in the region has affected passage through the Strait of Hormuz, to some extent undermining raw material supply stability at certain aluminum plants. At present, aluminum plants in Saudi Arabia and Turkey have domestic upstream bauxite and alumina support and can achieve self-sufficiency, with room for exports; Bahrain Aluminum and Qatar Aluminum rely entirely on imported alumina, while the UAE has 2.5 million mt of alumina capacity, but its bauxite relies 100% on imports. Although Oman’s aluminum plants also depend on imported raw materials, their geographic location is outside the Strait of Hormuz, so the level of risk is relatively low. If transport routes remain closed and no new routes can be opened, aluminum production in the Middle East is expected to be significantly affected. However, according to the latest foreign media reports, Bahrain Aluminum is exporting 40-60% of its aluminum ingots through Saudi Arabia’s Port of Jeddah, with an overland transport distance of 1,400 kilometers, and UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium is attempting to import alumina raw materials through ports in Oman. If new transport routes are opened, the production reduction risk at aluminum plants in the Middle East is expected to decline markedly. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to production developments at aluminum plants in the Middle East, transport route conditions, and trends in LME aluminum inventory.

Mar 20, 2026 18:17

Magnesium Market Tug-of-War: Geopolitics, Cost Support, Demand Surge vs Ample Supply [SMM Analysis]

[Magnesium Prices Stuck in Dilemma: Geopolitical Tensions, Cost Support, and Demand Surge Clash with High Supply] Reviewing the recent magnesium market, magnesium prices repeatedly fluctuated within the 16,600-16,700 range, with a relatively slow pace.

Mar 20, 2026 15:56

Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]

After the Chinese New Year holiday, China’s aluminum market continued to see an inventory buildup, with social inventory rising लगातार and repeatedly hitting highs for recent years. However, as the traditional peak consumption season gradually got underway, downstream pickup enthusiasm rebounded, pressure from aluminum ingot backlogs eased significantly, and the pace of inventory buildup has already shown signs of slowing...

Mar 22, 2026 23:24

Amid this structural adjustment in global regional demand, with gains in some markets offsetting declines in others, China’s prebaked anode exports can offset the pressure from weakening demand in traditional markets through market structure optimization and a shift in the center of orders. Coupled with its own capacity and supply chain advantages, China’s prebaked anode exports are expected to maintain a certain increase for the full year.

Mar 20, 2026 20:14

Nickel Ore "Sluggish RKAB Approvals Drive Potential for Ore Price Hikes" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is recovering from previous floods. However, Halmahera continues to be hampered by thunderstorms, resulting in high moisture content and dragging down mining efficiency. The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Although the spot supply of hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. However, given the concerns over RKAB approval uncertainty, the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and the growing demand from outer islands, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to follow the trend of pyrometallurgical ore and remain elevated. On March 3, 2026, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that rumors of a "25%–30% universal increase in RKAB quotas" are false. Quota supplements will be based on individualized assessments of production capacity and compliance, with the approval process not expected to start until the second half of 2026. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices in April are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "NPI Prices See Periodic Retracement as Tug-of-War Intensifies Between Cost Support and Downstream Pressure" The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 0.3 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1090.2 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.65 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.28 per nickel unit. This week, following consecutive price drops in stainless steel finished products and LME/SHFE nickel, the High-Grade NPI market experienced panic selling and low-price liquidation, entering a phase of periodic decline. From the supply side, With ore prices remaining elevated, smelter production costs continue to rise. However, triggered by the sharp decline in futures markets, some traders began offloading arbitrage stocks at low prices, leading to a general softening of upstream quotes.From the demand side, Weighed down by falling stainless steel prices and the influx of low-priced spot goods, most steel mills have lowered their bid intentions, exerting downward pressure on NPI prices. Overall, while cost support for smelters remains, downstream suppression is evident. The combination of futures-driven market sentiment and loosening upstream quotes has led to a periodic retracement in High-Grade NPI Overall outlook, market transactions will remain under pressure in the short term as the cost-tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. However, the downward room for NPI prices is expected to be limited.

Mar 20, 2026 18:58

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SHFE Cast Aluminum Alloy Warrants Drop to 42,944 MT on March 25

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Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Mar 25)

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Sellers Show a Strong Willingness to Hold Prices Firm, While Transaction Premiums Continue to Narrow [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Commentary]

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Secondary Aluminum Alloy Prices Edge Up, Transactions Remain Weak

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Driven by the rebound in futures, the secondary aluminum alloy market saw quoted prices edge up today, with mainstream increases of 100 yuan/mt. Some enterprises raised prices accordingly to recover earlier losses, and market sentiment improved slightly from the previous period. However, transactions remained weak, with downstream buyers mainly purchasing as needed and showing limited acceptance of high prices, constraining upside room for prices. In the short term, ADC12 prices were expected to fluctuate rangebound, and further gains would still require substantive improvement on the demand side.

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】EU Proposes Regulation to Boost Industrial Capacity and Decarbonization in Strategic Sectors

On 4 March 2026, the European Commission presented its Proposal for a Regulation on establishing a framework of measures for accelerating industrial capacity and decarbonization in strategic sectors, which aims at “improving the functioning of the internal market by establishing a framework to support the development, competitiveness and resilience of the Union’s manufacturing sector, with a focus on selected strategic sectors”, in order to contribute to the EU’s “climate objective, economic security and the creation, retention of, and transition into high-quality jobs."

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Tomago Aluminium in finalisation of a model for low-carbon industrial transition

The Tomago aluminium smelter is planning to shift to renewable electricity, with an expectation of targeting 50 per cent renewable energy by 2030 and 100 per cent by 2035, while also strengthening the case for government-backed financial support.

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Hulamin Forecasts 2025 Loss Due to Operational Setbacks and Currency Movements

Hulamin has indicated that it will post a loss for the 2025 financial year, pointing to a combination of operational setbacks and unfavourable currency movements ahead of its full-year results due on Monday. The aluminium manufacturer, headquartered in Pietermaritzburg, explained that a prolonged shutdown of its integrated plant formed part of a major project to expand its wide can body capacity. However, this interruption made it challenging to restore consistent mill performance once operations resumed.

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Australia Invests A $2B to Secure Rio Tinto's Boyne Smelter Operations Until 2040

On Wednesday, March 25, Australia announced it will invest A$2 billion (US$1.4 billion) over 10 years to support the continued operation of Rio Tinto's Boyne smelter, the country's second-largest aluminum smelter. Federal Industry Minister Tim Ayres stated that the investment, shared equally by the federal and Queensland governments, will bring nearly A$7.5 billion in new investment to Queensland, with Rio Tinto covering the energy asset investment. This financial support will ensure that Boyne Smelters Limited, majority-owned by Rio Tinto, continues aluminum production after its existing power contract expires in 2029, and at least until 2040.

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Azerbaijan's aluminum production reached 11,771 tons in the first two months of 2026.

According to data from the Azerbaijani Statistical Committee, in the first two months of 2026, Azerbaijan produced 11,771 tons of aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%. As of March 1, the country held 3,729 tons of finished aluminum products in stock. In 2025, Azerbaijan produced 50,893 tons of aluminum products, a decrease of 23% compared to 2024. Furthermore, according to data from the Azerbaijani Customs Committee, in the first two months of 2026, Azerbaijan exported a total of 12,900 tons of aluminum and aluminum products, with an export value of US$42 million.

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Alcoa's San Ciprián smelter is expected to operate at full capacity by mid-year.

According to recent investor reports, Alcoa's San Ciprián smelter is operating at 90% capacity and is expected to reach full capacity by mid-year. Production at the San Ciprián smelter declined in 2021 due to high electricity prices; a nationwide power outage in Spain in April 2025 further disrupted the overall operations of the smelter and refinery. Prior to the production cuts, the smelter's total annual capacity was 228,000 tons.

Rio Tinto Secures $2B Govt Deal for Boyne Smelter's Long-Term Future in Australia

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Rio Tinto has partnered with the Queensland Government and Commonwealth Government to secure the long-term future of the Boyne aluminum smelter in Gladstone. The deal includes A$2 billion in government funding through 2040 and builds on Rio Tinto’s PPAs underpinning A$7.5 billion in new renewable energy and storage. It ensures Boyne Smelters Limited will remain cost-competitive and continue production beyond its current 2029 power contract as part of the Future Made in Australia.

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Iran Controls Strait of Hormuz, Charges $2M for Tanker Passage, Selective Transit Allowed

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Iran has effectively turned the Strait of Hormuz into a controlled corridor, with at least 20 tankers rerouted near Qeshm and Larak via a regime-approved path. Some ships reportedly pay up to $2M for passage. Tehran allows non-aggressor vessels through while restricting others; China, India, Turkey, Pakistan, and Thailand have coordinated for safe transit.

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LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Overnight, Aluminum Prices Remained Under Pressure at High Levels in the Short Term [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary]

[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

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Aluminum Prices Stabilized but Failed to Change Wait-and-See Sentiment, Short-Term Fluctuations to Continue [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Halted Their Decline, but Wait-and-See Sentiment Remained Unchanged; Rangebound Movement May Continue in the Short Term] Spot market, yesterday the overall ADC12 market continued to hold prices steady. Aluminum prices showed signs of halting their decline, but market sentiment recovered only limitedly, and enterprises generally chose to postpone price adjustments and mainly adopt a wait-and-see stance. Demand side, downstream orders did not improve significantly, and just-in-time procurement remained the main approach, with mediocre transaction performance. Against the backdrop of easing cost-side fluctuations and insufficient demand support, ADC12 prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and remain relatively stable in the short term, with relatively limited momentum for price adjustments. Further attention should still be paid to aluminum price trends and the recovery of end-use demand.

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SHFE Aluminum Edged Up After Halting Its Decline, Spot Aluminum Stabilized and Improved [SMM South China Spot Aluminum Daily Review]

Mar 24, 2026 18:17

SHFE Cast Aluminum Alloy Warrants Drop by 2,047 mt to 42,944 mt on March 24

[SMM Flash News] SHFE data showed that as of March 24, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 42,944 mt, a decrease of 2,047 mt from the previous trading day. By region, the total registered volume was Shanghai (2,755 mt, down 422 mt), Guangdong (17,257 mt, down 210 mt), Jiangsu (4,209 mt, down 813 mt), Zhejiang (13,672 mt, down 483 mt), Chongqing (3,723 mt, down 119 mt), and Sichuan (1,327 mt, increase 0 mt).

Mar 24, 2026 17:38

What Could Change if Middle East Aluminum Trade Reroutes—and Supply Becomes Substitutable

Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

Mar 24, 2026 17:22

[SMM Analysis] 2026 Sodium-Ion Battery Competitive Landscape: Na‑ion Pioneers vs Lithium Battery Giants

Mar 20, 2026 15:00

【SMM Analysis】Middle East Turmoil Triggers Trade "Mismatch": China Accelerates to Fill 2.3 MT Supply Vacuum in SEA

Mar 20, 2026 09:51

Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports

Mar 20, 2026 18:17

Magnesium Market Tug-of-War: Geopolitics, Cost Support, Demand Surge vs Ample Supply [SMM Analysis]

Mar 20, 2026 15:56

Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]

Mar 22, 2026 23:24

Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape Prebaked Anode Exports; SE Asia Demand Supports Full-Year Growth 【SMM Analysis】

Mar 20, 2026 20:14

【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of Indonesian Nickel Market - Mar 20

Mar 20, 2026 18:58

SHFE Cast Aluminum Alloy Warrants Drop to 42,944 MT on March 25

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Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Mar 25)

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Sellers Show a Strong Willingness to Hold Prices Firm, While Transaction Premiums Continue to Narrow [SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Commentary]

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Secondary Aluminum Alloy Prices Edge Up, Transactions Remain Weak

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】EU Proposes Regulation to Boost Industrial Capacity and Decarbonization in Strategic Sectors

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Tomago Aluminium in finalisation of a model for low-carbon industrial transition

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Hulamin Forecasts 2025 Loss Due to Operational Setbacks and Currency Movements

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Australia Invests A $2B to Secure Rio Tinto's Boyne Smelter Operations Until 2040

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Azerbaijan's aluminum production reached 11,771 tons in the first two months of 2026.

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Alcoa's San Ciprián smelter is expected to operate at full capacity by mid-year.

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Gumei Metal Aluminum Plant's 3600T Large Extrusion Press Officially Commences Production

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Shenhuo Coal & Power: Net profit of 4.005 billion yuan in 2025

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【SMM Aluminum Flash News】Odisha will auction six bauxite mining sites in the 2026-27 fiscal year

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Rio Tinto Secures $2B Govt Deal for Boyne Smelter's Long-Term Future in Australia

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Iran Controls Strait of Hormuz, Charges $2M for Tanker Passage, Selective Transit Allowed

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LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Overnight, Aluminum Prices Remained Under Pressure at High Levels in the Short Term [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary]

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Aluminum Prices Stabilized but Failed to Change Wait-and-See Sentiment, Short-Term Fluctuations to Continue [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

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SHFE Aluminum Edged Up After Halting Its Decline, Spot Aluminum Stabilized and Improved [SMM South China Spot Aluminum Daily Review]

Mar 24, 2026 18:17

SHFE Cast Aluminum Alloy Warrants Drop by 2,047 mt to 42,944 mt on March 24

Mar 24, 2026 17:38

What Could Change if Middle East Aluminum Trade Reroutes—and Supply Becomes Substitutable

Mar 24, 2026 17:22

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