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Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports
Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports
SMM, March 20: Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 mt in January, down 0.1% MoM and up 17.1% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 202,000 mt, up 6.6% MoM and up 0.7% YoY. In January-February 2026, China’s cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled about 391,000 mt, up 8.0% YoY. Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 13,000 mt in January, down 64.6% MoM and up 56.6% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 10,000 mt, down 24.6% MoM and up 187.9% YoY. In January-February, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled about 23,000 mt, up about 94.8% YoY. Net imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 176,000 mt in January, up 15.9% MoM and up 14.9% YoY; in February, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 192,000 mt, up 9.0% MoM and down 2.6% YoY. In January-February, China’s cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 367,000 mt, up 5.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) Although China’s net primary aluminum imports maintained positive growth in January-February 2026, expectations of a sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China will challenge this situation. As of March 20, SMM’s Japan MJP spot premiums for aluminum ingot stood at $255/mt, up 45.7% from month-end February. Currently, some market participants were quoting Japan MJP CIF premiums for Q2 at around $350-353/mt, up about 80% from $195/mt in Q1; the US Midwest DDP aluminum premium stood at 105.25¢/lb, equivalent to $2,110/mt. As of March 13, Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid premiums stood at $470/mt, up about 27.0% from month-end February, while Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid premiums stood at $375/mt, up 27.2% from month-end February. The sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China is expected to divert some aluminum originally planned to flow into China, and China’s net aluminum imports are expected to decline YoY in 2026. The reason for this phenomenon lies in expectations of a contraction in aluminum supply outside China caused by reduced aluminum supply in the Middle East. As of March 20, Qatar Aluminum announced that it would maintain a 60% operating rate, involving 260,000 mt of shut capacity; Bahrain Aluminum announced the shutdown of Lines 1-3, involving about 310,000 mt of capacity. In total, 570,000 mt of aluminum capacity in the Middle East has been affected. Iran is at the center of the conflict, and the stability of its production faces severe challenges. In addition, some raw and auxiliary materials in the Middle East rely on imports, and the geopolitical conflict in the region has affected passage through the Strait of Hormuz, to some extent undermining raw material supply stability at certain aluminum plants. At present, aluminum plants in Saudi Arabia and Turkey have domestic upstream bauxite and alumina support and can achieve self-sufficiency, with room for exports; Bahrain Aluminum and Qatar Aluminum rely entirely on imported alumina, while the UAE has 2.5 million mt of alumina capacity, but its bauxite relies 100% on imports. Although Oman’s aluminum plants also depend on imported raw materials, their geographic location is outside the Strait of Hormuz, so the level of risk is relatively low. If transport routes remain closed and no new routes can be opened, aluminum production in the Middle East is expected to be significantly affected. However, according to the latest foreign media reports, Bahrain Aluminum is exporting 40-60% of its aluminum ingots through Saudi Arabia’s Port of Jeddah, with an overland transport distance of 1,400 kilometers, and UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium is attempting to import alumina raw materials through ports in Oman. If new transport routes are opened, the production reduction risk at aluminum plants in the Middle East is expected to decline markedly. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to production developments at aluminum plants in the Middle East, transport route conditions, and trends in LME aluminum inventory.
Mar 20, 2026 18:17
Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]
Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]
After the Chinese New Year holiday, China’s aluminum market continued to see an inventory buildup, with social inventory rising लगातार and repeatedly hitting highs for recent years. However, as the traditional peak consumption season gradually got underway, downstream pickup enthusiasm rebounded, pressure from aluminum ingot backlogs eased significantly, and the pace of inventory buildup has already shown signs of slowing...
Mar 22, 2026 23:24
Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape Prebaked Anode Exports; SE Asia Demand Supports Full-Year Growth 【SMM Analysis】
Amid this structural adjustment in global regional demand, with gains in some markets offsetting declines in others, China’s prebaked anode exports can offset the pressure from weakening demand in traditional markets through market structure optimization and a shift in the center of orders. Coupled with its own capacity and supply chain advantages, China’s prebaked anode exports are expected to maintain a certain increase for the full year.
Mar 20, 2026 20:14
【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of Indonesian Nickel Market - Mar 20
Nickel Ore "Sluggish RKAB Approvals Drive Potential for Ore Price Hikes" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is recovering from previous floods. However, Halmahera continues to be hampered by thunderstorms, resulting in high moisture content and dragging down mining efficiency. The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Although the spot supply of hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. However, given the concerns over RKAB approval uncertainty, the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and the growing demand from outer islands, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to follow the trend of pyrometallurgical ore and remain elevated. On March 3, 2026, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that rumors of a "25%–30% universal increase in RKAB quotas" are false. Quota supplements will be based on individualized assessments of production capacity and compliance, with the approval process not expected to start until the second half of 2026. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices in April are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "NPI Prices See Periodic Retracement as Tug-of-War Intensifies Between Cost Support and Downstream Pressure​​​​​​​" The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 0.3 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1090.2 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.65 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.28 per nickel unit. This week, following consecutive price drops in stainless steel finished products and LME/SHFE nickel, the High-Grade NPI market experienced panic selling and low-price liquidation, entering a phase of periodic decline. From the supply side, With ore prices remaining elevated, smelter production costs continue to rise. However, triggered by the sharp decline in futures markets, some traders began offloading arbitrage stocks at low prices, leading to a general softening of upstream quotes.From the demand side, Weighed down by falling stainless steel prices and the influx of low-priced spot goods, most steel mills have lowered their bid intentions, exerting downward pressure on NPI prices. Overall, while cost support for smelters remains, downstream suppression is evident. The combination of futures-driven market sentiment and loosening upstream quotes has led to a periodic retracement in High-Grade NPI Overall outlook, market transactions will remain under pressure in the short term as the cost-tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. However, the downward room for NPI prices is expected to be limited.
Mar 20, 2026 18:58

Latest News

US Initiates Anti-Dumping, Countervailing Probes on Chinese Truck Bed Covers Worth $1.1B
According to China Trade Remedies Information, on March 18, 2026, in response to applications filed by US enterprises including RealTruck, Inc., the US Department of Commerce announced the initiation of anti-dumping and countervailing investigations into truck bed covers imported from China. The US International Trade Commission (ITC) was expected to make a preliminary determination on industrial injury no later than April 13, 2026. According to US statistics, in 2025 the value of US imports of truck bed covers from China was approximately $1.1 billion.
Mar 20, 2026 17:44
XPeng Motors Reports Q4 2025 Revenue Growth, Forecasts Q1 Delivery Decline
XPeng Motors' Q4 2025 revenue was 22.25 billion yuan, up 38.2% YoY; Q4 non-GAAP net profit was approximately 510 million yuan. XPeng Motors expected Q1 vehicle deliveries to decline 29.8%-35.1% YoY, to between 61,000 and 66,000 units.
Mar 20, 2026 17:41
Geely Auto Reports Record 2025 Revenue, Core Profit Up 36% Year-on-Year
Geely Automobile (0175.HK) announced its full-year 2025 results. In 2025, Geely Automobile's total revenue reached 345.2 billion yuan, up 25% YoY, a record high. Excluding non-core items such as foreign exchange gains and losses, core profit attributable to shareholders reached 14.41 billion yuan, up 36% YoY. The growth in core profit outpaced revenue growth, delivering high-quality growth. Benefiting from the continued release of economies of scale and the optimization of its high-value product mix, gross profit increased to 57.3 billion yuan, up 25% YoY. As of the end of 2025, total cash rose 46% to 68.2 billion yuan, with ample and solid cash reserves.
Mar 18, 2026 13:26
February Auto Production and Sales Data Released, NEV Exports Continued Strong Growth. Will the Auto Market Gradually Strengthen in March? [SMM Special Report]
Mar 17, 2026 18:25
Zhongli Invests 350M Yuan in Anji for Intelligent Robots and Forklift Parts Project
Zhongli Co., Ltd. (603194.SH) announced that, to meet its business development needs, the company plans to invest 350 million yuan in the Zhejiang Anji Economic Development Zone to build a project with annual production capacity of 50,000 intelligent robots and 100,000 sets of forklift components and parts. The funding will come from self-raised funds, including its own funds and bank loans. The project will primarily engage in the R&D and manufacturing of intelligent robots and forklift components and parts equipment.
Mar 17, 2026 18:04
NVIDIA Launches L4 Autonomous Driving Platform, Multiple Automakers Announce Partnerships
[Nvidia Unveiled an L4 Autonomous Driving Platform, and Multiple Automakers and Mobility Platforms Announced Partnerships] On March 17 local time, at the 2026 GTC conference, Nvidia announced multiple advances in L4 autonomous driving technology and partnership updates. It will work with leading automakers including BYD, Geely, and Nissan to jointly develop next-generation L4 autonomous driving programs based on the NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion platform. Isuzu, meanwhile, partnered with TIER IV to use the platform’s core component, the DRIVE AGX Thor chip, to build an L4 autonomous driving bus.
Mar 17, 2026 17:28
BofA: Humanoid Robot Shipments to Grow 86% Annually Over the Next Five Years
[Bank of America: Humanoid Robot Shipments Are Expected to Grow 86% Annually Over the Next Five Years] Bank of America forecasts that annual shipments of humanoid robots will increase from 90,000 units in 2026 to 1.2 million units in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate as high as 86%, faster than the growth seen in the early EV market. BofA also expects the global number of humanoid robots to reach 3 billion by 2060, exceeding the current global automobile ownership of 1.5 billion units.
Mar 17, 2026 17:27
Nissan to Cut Production at Its Kyushu Plant Due to Declining Middle East Exports
[Due to Declining Exports to the Middle East, Nissan Motor Will Reduce Production] Nissan Motor Co. plans to cut production due to a decline in exports to the Middle East. According to foreign media reports, the company will reduce monthly production at its plant in Kyushu, Japan, by 1,200 units. This decision was made as challenges in the Middle Eastern market have affected Nissan’s overall manufacturing strategy.
Mar 17, 2026 17:24
Nissan to Introduce US-Made Murano in Japan, Sales Start 2027
Nissan Motor said it would introduce the US-produced Murano car model to the Japanese market, with sales expected to begin in early 2027.
Mar 17, 2026 11:51
[Phosphorus Chemical Industry: Wengfu's Wet-Process 85 Phosphoric Acid Rose by 700 yuan Within Half a Month, and Iron Phosphate Production Costs Came Under Upward Pressure]
[Phosphorus Chemical Industry: Wengfu's Wet-Process 85 Phosphoric Acid Rose by 700 yuan/mt Within Half a Month, Pushing Iron Phosphate Production Costs Higher Under Pressure] On March 16, 2026, SMM reported that phosphorus giant Wengfu Group raised the ex-factory price of wet-process 85 phosphoric acid by 200 yuan/mt yesterday. Wengfu implemented a "price adjustment on every 5th" mechanism (the 5th, 15th, and 25th of each month). This marked the second price adjustment in March, bringing the cumulative increase to 700 yuan/mt (it had already increased by 500 yuan/mt on March 5). The continued increases in phosphoric acid prices brought significant cost pressure to new energy enterprises, while the production costs of iron phosphate via the iron-process and sodium-process routes rose by several hundred yuan accordingly.
Mar 16, 2026 17:13
SMM Daily Review: Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Fluctuated Upward on March 13
[SMM Daily Review: Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Fluctuated Upward on March 13] SMM's battery-grade lithium carbonate index price fluctuated upward from the previous working day. Futures trend, the most-traded contract fluctuated higher after opening and once climbed to around 163,000 yuan/mt; after the midday session, the price reversed downward and once fell to 150,000 yuan/mt near the close, then fluctuated rangebound at low levels until the close. As of the close, open interest for the day decreased by about 8,500 lots from the previous trading day. Actual transactions, upstream lithium chemical plants showed a clear reluctance to sell and held prices firm, while willingness to sell spot orders remained weak; downstream material plants still mainly stayed cautious and on the sidelines, maintaining only just-in-time procurement. Overall, both market inquiries and actual transactions were sluggish. As for subsequent price movements, given that downstream procurement sentiment remained cautious and the market lacked sustained momentum to chase higher prices, lithium carbonate prices were expected to continue a fluctuating trend in the short term.
Mar 13, 2026 17:28
China Auto Dealers' Inventory Rises 31.8% MoM in February 2026
On March 13, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the results of its February 2026 "Automobile Dealer Inventory" survey: the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.95 in February, up 31.8% MoM and up 21.1% YoY. According to data from the CPCA under the China Automobile Dealers Association, passenger vehicle retail sales totaled 1.043 million units in February. Based on this, total dealer inventory at month-end February was estimated at about 2 million units.
Mar 13, 2026 17:06
Aptiv's 2025 Results Hit a Record High, With Revenue Reaching $20.4 Billion
[Aptiv’s 2025 Results Hit a Record High, with Full-Year Revenue of $20.4 Billion] Recently, Aptiv released its 2025 financial results, with full-year revenue, adjusted operating income, and adjusted earnings per share all reaching record highs. Revenue reached $20.4 billion, up 3% YoY; adjusted operating income was $2.461 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $3.228 billion, and diluted earnings per share excluding special items reached $7.82.
Mar 12, 2026 12:00
Porsche to Streamline Operations Amid Tariff and EV Challenges
Porsche expected sales to remain under pressure this year, as the luxury carmaker struggled to cope with tariff issues and costly adjustments related to EVs. Porsche said on Wednesday that it would seek to streamline its operations, accelerate development, and expand into higher-margin areas to address these challenges. Porsche CEO Michael Leiters said, “We will comprehensively reposition Porsche to make the company leaner, faster, and its products more attractive.”
Mar 11, 2026 17:56
[SMM Analysis] 2026 Sodium-Ion Battery Competitive Landscape: Na‑ion Pioneers vs Lithium Battery Giants
[SMM Analysis] 2026 Sodium-Ion Battery Competitive Landscape: Na‑ion Pioneers vs Lithium Battery Giants
In 2026, the correction in lithium carbonate prices drove up lithium battery production costs. Coupled with uncertainties in lithium resources supply, cost pressure across the new energy industry became increasingly prominent. Leveraging the advantages of abundant sodium resources, balanced distribution, and controllable costs, sodium-ion batteries have leapt from being a “backup option” for lithium batteries to a key direction for industry breakthrough...
Mar 20, 2026 15:00
【SMM Analysis】Middle East Turmoil Triggers Trade "Mismatch": China Accelerates to Fill 2.3 MT Supply Vacuum in SEA
【SMM Analysis】Middle East Turmoil Triggers Trade "Mismatch": China Accelerates to Fill 2.3 MT Supply Vacuum in SEA
Mar 20, 2026 09:51
Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports
Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports
Mar 20, 2026 18:17
Magnesium Market Tug-of-War: Geopolitics, Cost Support, Demand Surge vs Ample Supply [SMM Analysis]
Magnesium Market Tug-of-War: Geopolitics, Cost Support, Demand Surge vs Ample Supply [SMM Analysis]
Mar 20, 2026 15:56
Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]
Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]
Mar 22, 2026 23:24
Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape Prebaked Anode Exports; SE Asia Demand Supports Full-Year Growth 【SMM Analysis】
Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape Prebaked Anode Exports; SE Asia Demand Supports Full-Year Growth 【SMM Analysis】
Mar 20, 2026 20:14
【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of Indonesian Nickel Market - Mar 20
【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of Indonesian Nickel Market - Mar 20
Mar 20, 2026 18:58
Latest News
Toyota to Invest $1 Billion in Kentucky and Indiana, Advance Battery Production Plans
Mar 24, 2026 16:55
South Korea to Strengthen EV Battery Safety Oversight, Expand Disclosure of Manufacturing Details
Mar 24, 2026 16:53
Hyundai Recalls Over 61,000 Vehicles in US Due to Safety Concerns
Mar 20, 2026 17:45
US Initiates Anti-Dumping, Countervailing Probes on Chinese Truck Bed Covers Worth $1.1B
Mar 20, 2026 17:44
XPeng Motors Reports Q4 2025 Revenue Growth, Forecasts Q1 Delivery Decline
Mar 20, 2026 17:41
Geely Auto Reports Record 2025 Revenue, Core Profit Up 36% Year-on-Year
Mar 18, 2026 13:26
February Auto Production and Sales Data Released, NEV Exports Continued Strong Growth. Will the Auto Market Gradually Strengthen in March? [SMM Special Report]
Mar 17, 2026 18:25
Zhongli Invests 350M Yuan in Anji for Intelligent Robots and Forklift Parts Project
Mar 17, 2026 18:04
NVIDIA Launches L4 Autonomous Driving Platform, Multiple Automakers Announce Partnerships
Mar 17, 2026 17:28
BofA: Humanoid Robot Shipments to Grow 86% Annually Over the Next Five Years
Mar 17, 2026 17:27
Hyundai Motor and Huayou Cobalt Jointly Established a Battery Recycling System in Indonesia
Mar 17, 2026 17:26
Toyota Indonesia Warned That the Middle East Conflict Could Affect the Supply Chain
Mar 17, 2026 17:25
Volvo to Halt EX30 Production in the US Later This Year
Mar 17, 2026 17:24
Nissan to Cut Production at Its Kyushu Plant Due to Declining Middle East Exports
Mar 17, 2026 17:24
Nissan to Introduce US-Made Murano in Japan, Sales Start 2027
Mar 17, 2026 11:51
[Phosphorus Chemical Industry: Wengfu's Wet-Process 85 Phosphoric Acid Rose by 700 yuan Within Half a Month, and Iron Phosphate Production Costs Came Under Upward Pressure]
Mar 16, 2026 17:13
SMM Daily Review: Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Fluctuated Upward on March 13
Mar 13, 2026 17:28
China Auto Dealers' Inventory Rises 31.8% MoM in February 2026
Mar 13, 2026 17:06
Aptiv's 2025 Results Hit a Record High, With Revenue Reaching $20.4 Billion
Mar 12, 2026 12:00
Porsche to Streamline Operations Amid Tariff and EV Challenges
Mar 11, 2026 17:56