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Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports
Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports
SMM, March 20: Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 mt in January, down 0.1% MoM and up 17.1% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 202,000 mt, up 6.6% MoM and up 0.7% YoY. In January-February 2026, China’s cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled about 391,000 mt, up 8.0% YoY. Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 13,000 mt in January, down 64.6% MoM and up 56.6% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 10,000 mt, down 24.6% MoM and up 187.9% YoY. In January-February, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled about 23,000 mt, up about 94.8% YoY. Net imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 176,000 mt in January, up 15.9% MoM and up 14.9% YoY; in February, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 192,000 mt, up 9.0% MoM and down 2.6% YoY. In January-February, China’s cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 367,000 mt, up 5.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) Although China’s net primary aluminum imports maintained positive growth in January-February 2026, expectations of a sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China will challenge this situation. As of March 20, SMM’s Japan MJP spot premiums for aluminum ingot stood at $255/mt, up 45.7% from month-end February. Currently, some market participants were quoting Japan MJP CIF premiums for Q2 at around $350-353/mt, up about 80% from $195/mt in Q1; the US Midwest DDP aluminum premium stood at 105.25¢/lb, equivalent to $2,110/mt. As of March 13, Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid premiums stood at $470/mt, up about 27.0% from month-end February, while Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid premiums stood at $375/mt, up 27.2% from month-end February. The sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China is expected to divert some aluminum originally planned to flow into China, and China’s net aluminum imports are expected to decline YoY in 2026. The reason for this phenomenon lies in expectations of a contraction in aluminum supply outside China caused by reduced aluminum supply in the Middle East. As of March 20, Qatar Aluminum announced that it would maintain a 60% operating rate, involving 260,000 mt of shut capacity; Bahrain Aluminum announced the shutdown of Lines 1-3, involving about 310,000 mt of capacity. In total, 570,000 mt of aluminum capacity in the Middle East has been affected. Iran is at the center of the conflict, and the stability of its production faces severe challenges. In addition, some raw and auxiliary materials in the Middle East rely on imports, and the geopolitical conflict in the region has affected passage through the Strait of Hormuz, to some extent undermining raw material supply stability at certain aluminum plants. At present, aluminum plants in Saudi Arabia and Turkey have domestic upstream bauxite and alumina support and can achieve self-sufficiency, with room for exports; Bahrain Aluminum and Qatar Aluminum rely entirely on imported alumina, while the UAE has 2.5 million mt of alumina capacity, but its bauxite relies 100% on imports. Although Oman’s aluminum plants also depend on imported raw materials, their geographic location is outside the Strait of Hormuz, so the level of risk is relatively low. If transport routes remain closed and no new routes can be opened, aluminum production in the Middle East is expected to be significantly affected. However, according to the latest foreign media reports, Bahrain Aluminum is exporting 40-60% of its aluminum ingots through Saudi Arabia’s Port of Jeddah, with an overland transport distance of 1,400 kilometers, and UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium is attempting to import alumina raw materials through ports in Oman. If new transport routes are opened, the production reduction risk at aluminum plants in the Middle East is expected to decline markedly. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to production developments at aluminum plants in the Middle East, transport route conditions, and trends in LME aluminum inventory.
Mar 20, 2026 18:17
Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]
Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]
After the Chinese New Year holiday, China’s aluminum market continued to see an inventory buildup, with social inventory rising लगातार and repeatedly hitting highs for recent years. However, as the traditional peak consumption season gradually got underway, downstream pickup enthusiasm rebounded, pressure from aluminum ingot backlogs eased significantly, and the pace of inventory buildup has already shown signs of slowing...
Mar 22, 2026 23:24
Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape Prebaked Anode Exports; SE Asia Demand Supports Full-Year Growth 【SMM Analysis】
Amid this structural adjustment in global regional demand, with gains in some markets offsetting declines in others, China’s prebaked anode exports can offset the pressure from weakening demand in traditional markets through market structure optimization and a shift in the center of orders. Coupled with its own capacity and supply chain advantages, China’s prebaked anode exports are expected to maintain a certain increase for the full year.
Mar 20, 2026 20:14
【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of Indonesian Nickel Market - Mar 20
Nickel Ore "Sluggish RKAB Approvals Drive Potential for Ore Price Hikes" Indonesian domestic nickel ore prices have risen significantly increase this week. For the first half of March, the Indonesian Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (HPM) was set at $17.329/dmt, an increase of 1.32%. However, according to SMM data, average premiums has increased for 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.6% grade laterite nickel ore were reported at $35, $39, and $39.5/wmt, respectively, with 1.6% grade reaching a delivered price of $65.6–$74.6/wmt. This strengthening of premiums reflects both the release of restocking demand from smelters and pessimistic expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions. Simultaneously, the delivery price for 1.2% grade limonite has edged up to $24–$26/wmt. Pyrometallurgical Ore: From a supply and demand perspective, Sulawesi is transitioning into the dry season; Konawe has reached optimal production levels, while Morowali is recovering from previous floods. However, Halmahera continues to be hampered by thunderstorms, resulting in high moisture content and dragging down mining efficiency. The market is facing a clear trend of declining ore grades. While some NPI smelters have begun accepting grades of 1.45% or lower, the supply of high-grade saprolite remains tight. As of mid-March, the ESDM has approved approximately 100 million tons of RKAB quotas. The remaining 160 to 170 million tons are expected to be processed by the end of March. However, due to the Eid al-Fitr (Lebaran) holidays (March 18–24), approval progress is expected to lag, exacerbating short-term supply tightness. Faced with resource uncertainty, some smelters have increased trade bonuses to secure raw materials. Transactions for low-grade saprolite are emerging at fixed prices lower than high-grade ores. Conversely, Limonite prices remain low due to a tailings dam landslide at a major MHP project, which has forced production lines to operate at low loads, hindering demand recovery. However, Limonite prices are expected to eventually follow Saprolite upward due to new project stockpiling and external island demand. Hydrometallurgical Ore Although the spot supply of hydrometallurgical ore is relatively sufficient, a tailings dam landslide at an MHP project in a certain industrial park has forced related production lines to operate at low loads, leading to a temporary weakness in demand. However, given the concerns over RKAB approval uncertainty, the stockpiling needs of newly commissioned projects, and the growing demand from outer islands, hydrometallurgical ore prices are expected to follow the trend of pyrometallurgical ore and remain elevated. On March 3, 2026, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that rumors of a "25%–30% universal increase in RKAB quotas" are false. Quota supplements will be based on individualized assessments of production capacity and compliance, with the approval process not expected to start until the second half of 2026. Market Outlook: Due to the overall delay in RKAB approvals, nickel ore prices in April are expected to remain resilient with a strong "easy to rise, hard to fall" trend. Nickel Pig Iron "NPI Prices See Periodic Retracement as Tug-of-War Intensifies Between Cost Support and Downstream Pressure​​​​​​​" The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price rose by RMB 0.3 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1090.2 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index decreased by USD 0.65 per nickel unit to an average of USD 138.28 per nickel unit. This week, following consecutive price drops in stainless steel finished products and LME/SHFE nickel, the High-Grade NPI market experienced panic selling and low-price liquidation, entering a phase of periodic decline. From the supply side, With ore prices remaining elevated, smelter production costs continue to rise. However, triggered by the sharp decline in futures markets, some traders began offloading arbitrage stocks at low prices, leading to a general softening of upstream quotes.From the demand side, Weighed down by falling stainless steel prices and the influx of low-priced spot goods, most steel mills have lowered their bid intentions, exerting downward pressure on NPI prices. Overall, while cost support for smelters remains, downstream suppression is evident. The combination of futures-driven market sentiment and loosening upstream quotes has led to a periodic retracement in High-Grade NPI Overall outlook, market transactions will remain under pressure in the short term as the cost-tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues. However, the downward room for NPI prices is expected to be limited.
Mar 20, 2026 18:58

Latest News

East China Special Steel's Ferromolybdenum Tender Price Fell, Procuring 120 mt
[Molybdenum-Iron Tender Information] SMM, March 24: It is reported that on March 23, a special steel group in east China announced the tender price for a new round of ferromolybdenum procurement, with the tax-inclusive plant-delivered acceptance-settled price at 277,500 yuan/mt, down 2,000 yuan/mt from the tender price on March 18. The public tender purchase volume was 120 mt (bid volume), while the actual total purchase volume remained to be determined.
Mar 24, 2026 17:21
China's Magnesium Exports Up 3,400 Tons YoY in Jan-Feb 2026, Positive Start to the Year
[SMM Magnesium Express] China's magnesium product exports totaled 72,700 tons in Jan-Feb 2026, up 3,400 tons year-on-year. January exports reached 40,300 tons, up 6% YoY and 4.2% MoM. February exports stood at 32,300 tons, up 3.7% YoY but down 1.96% MoM due to the Lunar New Year holiday, remaining above the same period last year. The year got off to a positive start.
Mar 24, 2026 16:42
Asahi Kasei, Nippon Steel Launch Titanium Recycling for Chlor-Alkali Cells, Enhancing Efficiency
[SMM Titanium Express] Asahi Kasei, Nippon Steel and Nippon Steel Trading have jointly launched a titanium recycling system for chlor-alkali electrolysis cells, processing production scrap into pure titanium feedstock for corrosion-resistant anode components. Through supply chain collaboration and digital traceability, the closed-loop system enhances resource efficiency and reduces environmental impact. The partners plan to expand cooperation to further integrate secondary raw materials into production processes.
Mar 24, 2026 16:08
Latrobe Magnesium Produces 20 Tonnes of High-Grade Magnesium, Aiming for 2026 Metal Production
[SMM Magnesium Express] Latrobe Magnesium successfully produced ~20 tonnes of high-grade magnesium oxide at its Victoria demonstration plant, with total magnesium compounds around 90%, paving the way for first magnesium metal production in H2 2026. The patented process uses brown coal power generation ash as feedstock, following a circular economy model. Long-term contracts with U.S. distributors are secured, with plans for a 100,000 tpa plant in Malaysia.
Mar 24, 2026 15:59
[SMM Analysis] Titanium Dioxide Prices Rise Amid Cost Pressures and Geopolitical Tensions
As of March 24, titanium dioxide prices continued to rise, with the SMM index up 4.6% since early 2026. Two rounds of price hikes were issued in March amid low inventories. Strong exports and production cuts supported gains, though sustainability post-peak season remains uncertain, hinging on downstream acceptance.
Mar 24, 2026 14:35
Hunan Company Opens Bidding for 600 Tons of Bismuth Concentrate, Deadline March 26
Mar 24, 2026 13:03
Hunan Company Opens Bidding for 600 Tons of Bismuth Concentrate, Minimum Bid Set at 130,600 Yuan Per Ton
SMM, March 24: According to an official announcement from a Hunan-based company, bidding for the sale of 600 metric tons of physical bismuth concentrate from its operations for March 2026 will begin today. The deadline for bidding registration and submission is 10:00 a.m. on March 26. The minimum bid price for this auction is set at 130,600 yuan per metal ton. Bids below this threshold will be considered invalid.
Mar 24, 2026 13:02
【SMM Analysis】Limited Overseas Production Recovery; Ferrochrome Imports Remain Low
According to data from China Customs: Combined for January–February 2026, China imported 265,100 metric tons of high-carbon ferrochrome in total, a year-on-year decline of 51.6%. Breakdown by origin: imports from South Africa were 40,700 metric tons, down 83.3% year-on-year; imports from Kazakhstan were 158,400 metric tons, down 19.7% year-on-year.
Mar 23, 2026 10:27
Jilang Indium Industry to Sell 1,000 kg of Crude Indium Ingots on March 23, Bids Due by 16:00
SMM March 23: According to market sources, Nandan County Jilang Indium Industry Co., Ltd. plans to sell crude indium ingots externally on March 23. The product has an indium purity of ≥99.00% and a total weight of approximately 1,000 kg, complying with the standard YS/T 1163-2016 "Crude Indium". Delivery location: Warehouse of Nandan County Jilang Indium Industry Co., Ltd. (Industrial Park, Chehe Town, Nandan County, Hechi City). The seller is responsible for loading and weighing, while the buyer bears the freight costs. The bidding deadline is before 16:00 on March 23, 2026; bids submitted after this time will be invalid.
Mar 23, 2026 09:44
Nandan County Jilang Indium Industry Tendered 1 mt of Crude Indium on the 23rd [SMM Indium Report]
Mar 23, 2026 09:43
China’s Ferromolybdenum Imports and Exports in February 2026 Showed Mixed Changes
[Ferromolybdenum Import and Export Information] SMM, March 20: Customs data showed that China imported 240 mt of ferromolybdenum (physical content) in February 2026, up 5.26% YoY and down 16.38% MoM. From January to February, China's cumulative ferromolybdenum imports totaled 527 mt (physical content), down 57.3% YoY. In February 2026, China exported 317 mt of ferromolybdenum (physical content), up 21.92% YoY and down 43.70% MoM. From January to February, China's cumulative ferromolybdenum exports reached 919 mt (physical content), down 25.62% YoY.
Mar 21, 2026 13:52
China’s Molybdenum Concentrate Imports and Exports Both Declined YoY in February 2026
[Molybdenum Concentrate Import and Export Information] SMM News, March 20: In February 2026, China imported 4,572 mt of molybdenum concentrate (physical content), down 13.03% YoY and 1.82% MoM. Cumulative imports of molybdenum concentrate in January-February totaled 9,230 mt (physical content), down 13.88% YoY. In February 2026, China exported 558 mt of molybdenum concentrate (physical content), down 46.01% YoY and up 160.72% MoM. Cumulative exports of molybdenum concentrate in January-February reached 772 mt (physical content), down 46.01% YoY;
Mar 21, 2026 13:50
China’s Molybdenum Oxide Imports Increased and Exports Decreased in February 2026
[Molybdenum Oxide Import and Export Information] SMM News, March 21: Customs data showed that China imported 2,629 mt of molybdenum oxide (physical content) in February 2026, up 386.78% YoY and up 28.12% MoM. Cumulative imports of molybdenum oxide in January-February totaled 4,680 mt (physical content), up 427.03% YoY. In February 2026, China exported 689 mt of molybdenum oxide (physical content), down 43.96% YoY and down 32.2% MoM. Cumulative exports of molybdenum oxide in January-February totaled 1,706 mt (physical content), down 25.90% YoY.
Mar 21, 2026 13:44
[SMM Analysis] China’s Tungsten Exports Fall in January-February 2026, While Ore Imports Skyrocket
[SMM Analysis] China’s Tungsten Exports Fall in January-February 2026, While Ore Imports Skyrocket
According to customs data, China’s total exports of tungsten smelting products and tungsten materials reached approximately 1,805.3 tonnes in January–February 2026, down 27.6% year on year.
Mar 21, 2026 13:32
[SMM Analysis] 2026 Sodium-Ion Battery Competitive Landscape: Na‑ion Pioneers vs Lithium Battery Giants
[SMM Analysis] 2026 Sodium-Ion Battery Competitive Landscape: Na‑ion Pioneers vs Lithium Battery Giants
In 2026, the correction in lithium carbonate prices drove up lithium battery production costs. Coupled with uncertainties in lithium resources supply, cost pressure across the new energy industry became increasingly prominent. Leveraging the advantages of abundant sodium resources, balanced distribution, and controllable costs, sodium-ion batteries have leapt from being a “backup option” for lithium batteries to a key direction for industry breakthrough...
Mar 20, 2026 15:00
【SMM Analysis】Middle East Turmoil Triggers Trade "Mismatch": China Accelerates to Fill 2.3 MT Supply Vacuum in SEA
【SMM Analysis】Middle East Turmoil Triggers Trade "Mismatch": China Accelerates to Fill 2.3 MT Supply Vacuum in SEA
Mar 20, 2026 09:51
Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports
Regional Aluminum Premiums Surge May Impact China's Primary Aluminum Net Imports
Mar 20, 2026 18:17
Magnesium Market Tug-of-War: Geopolitics, Cost Support, Demand Surge vs Ample Supply [SMM Analysis]
Magnesium Market Tug-of-War: Geopolitics, Cost Support, Demand Surge vs Ample Supply [SMM Analysis]
Mar 20, 2026 15:56
Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]
Aluminum Inventory Buildup in China Slows Down, Turning Point to Emerge in Late March [SMM Analysis]
Mar 22, 2026 23:24
Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape Prebaked Anode Exports; SE Asia Demand Supports Full-Year Growth 【SMM Analysis】
Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape Prebaked Anode Exports; SE Asia Demand Supports Full-Year Growth 【SMM Analysis】
Mar 20, 2026 20:14
【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of Indonesian Nickel Market - Mar 20
【SMM Analysis】Weekly Review of Indonesian Nickel Market - Mar 20
Mar 20, 2026 18:58
Latest News
A Tungsten Producer in Guangdong Released Long-Term Contract Prices, Raising Both Tungsten Concentrate and APT Prices
Common.Time.hoursAgo
A Yunnan Miner’s Planned Tender Sale of Tungsten Concentrate Is Postponed
Common.Time.hoursAgo
LB Group Announces Third TiO₂ Price Hike: Domestic Up RMB 1,000/ton, International Up USD 150/ton
Common.Time.hoursAgo
East China Special Steel's Ferromolybdenum Tender Price Fell, Procuring 120 mt
Mar 24, 2026 17:21
China's Magnesium Exports Up 3,400 Tons YoY in Jan-Feb 2026, Positive Start to the Year
Mar 24, 2026 16:42
Asahi Kasei, Nippon Steel Launch Titanium Recycling for Chlor-Alkali Cells, Enhancing Efficiency
Mar 24, 2026 16:08
Latrobe Magnesium Produces 20 Tonnes of High-Grade Magnesium, Aiming for 2026 Metal Production
Mar 24, 2026 15:59
[SMM Analysis] Titanium Dioxide Prices Rise Amid Cost Pressures and Geopolitical Tensions
Mar 24, 2026 14:35
Hunan Company Opens Bidding for 600 Tons of Bismuth Concentrate, Deadline March 26
Mar 24, 2026 13:03
Hunan Company Opens Bidding for 600 Tons of Bismuth Concentrate, Minimum Bid Set at 130,600 Yuan Per Ton
Mar 24, 2026 13:02
[SMM Analysis] China's Magnesium Exports Surge in Jan-Feb 2026, Geopolitical Turmoil Threatens Q2 Outlook
Mar 23, 2026 17:59
Scrap Tungsten Market Saw a Slight Price Collapse, While Ore and Upstream Smelting Products Consolidated Sideways [SMM Tungsten Daily Review]
Mar 23, 2026 17:32
【SMM Analysis】Falling Chrome Ore Imports, Supported by Demand and Costs, Drive Strong Price Performance
Mar 23, 2026 14:15
【SMM Analysis】Limited Overseas Production Recovery; Ferrochrome Imports Remain Low
Mar 23, 2026 10:27
Jilang Indium Industry to Sell 1,000 kg of Crude Indium Ingots on March 23, Bids Due by 16:00
Mar 23, 2026 09:44
Nandan County Jilang Indium Industry Tendered 1 mt of Crude Indium on the 23rd [SMM Indium Report]
Mar 23, 2026 09:43
China’s Ferromolybdenum Imports and Exports in February 2026 Showed Mixed Changes
Mar 21, 2026 13:52
China’s Molybdenum Concentrate Imports and Exports Both Declined YoY in February 2026
Mar 21, 2026 13:50
China’s Molybdenum Oxide Imports Increased and Exports Decreased in February 2026
Mar 21, 2026 13:44
[SMM Analysis] China’s Tungsten Exports Fall in January-February 2026, While Ore Imports Skyrocket
[SMM Analysis] China’s Tungsten Exports Fall in January-February 2026, While Ore Imports Skyrocket
Mar 21, 2026 13:32