In-Depth Analysis of the "Halving" Phenomenon in Green Hydrogen Projects—The Economic Crossroads Facing the Global Hydrogen Industry

I. A Comprehensive Overview of Global Hydrogen Projects Being Halved

(I) US Market:

As a key player in the global hydrogen industry, the US has recently seen particularly frequent project adjustments. PlugPower officially announced the suspension of six large-scale green hydrogen projects under construction in Texas, New York, and other locations. During the Q3 2025 earnings conference call, the company explicitly stated that this decision stemmed from "economic feasibility issues" and "changes in market conditions." CEO Andy Marsh emphasized that the company would reallocate funds to the faster-returning data center backup power supply market. This strategic shift also indirectly reflects the profitability pressures facing green hydrogen projects.

(II) Chinese Market:

China's green hydrogen projects have also shown a noticeable adjustment trend. The Guoneng Alxa High-tech Zone Million Kilowatt Wind and Solar Power Hydrogen Ammonia + Infrastructure Integrated Low-Carbon Park Demonstration Project also announced it would voluntarily relinquish its construction quota, explicitly stating that "given the current decline in the green ammonia market price, the project's economic viability did not meet expectations, failing to satisfy the group company's requirements, and it cannot achieve full capacity grid connection as approved." The cancellation of these projects reflects the practical challenges China's green hydrogen industry faces in scaling up. The massive investments required for integrated wind-solar-hydrogen-ammonia projects impose stricter demands on the return on investment. When market conditions cannot meet profitability expectations, enterprises rationally choose to exit proactively.

(III) Global Scope:

Beyond the Chinese and US markets, green hydrogen projects in many other regions have also scaled back capacity or contracted their geographical footprint due to various issues. Australia's Fortescue announced cuts to its hydrogen R&D spending in Australia and staff reductions, redirecting resources to international markets like Morocco and Brazil. The UAE's Masdar shifted "billions of US dollars" in green hydrogen investments toward AI and data centers, with the $6 billion desert solar project's power now being diverted to data centers. Spain's Catalina project reduced its 2030 green hydrogen capacity target by 63%. German energy giant E.ON has canceled a 20MW domestic green hydrogen project and withdrawn from the H₂Ruhr pipeline plan.

II. Four Fundamental Reasons for the "Halving" of Green Hydrogen Projects

(A) Cost "Ceiling": The Price Gap Between Green and Conventional Hydrogen Is Difficult to Bridge

Lack of price competitiveness is the most critical reason for the cooling interest in green hydrogen projects. Currently, there is a significant gap between the production cost of green hydrogen globally and that of conventional gray hydrogen, with green hydrogen priced about three times higher than gray hydrogen. This price spread deters downstream users in industries such as industrial and transportation sectors.

(B) Market Demand "Vacuum": Downstream Applications Have Yet to Achieve Scale and Boost Demand

The development of the green hydrogen industry relies on effective uptake from downstream markets. However, global demand for green hydrogen has not yet reached a scale of growth, leading to a widespread awkward situation of "having capacity but no market." The industrial sector, as the primary consumer of hydrogen, includes enterprises in steel, chemicals, and other industries that, due to cost pressure, still largely depend on conventional gray hydrogen and show low acceptance of green hydrogen. The lack of long-term, stable offtake agreements has become a direct reason for the cancellation of many projects.

(C) Policy "Reversal": Subsidy Reductions and Regulatory Uncertainty Heighten Investment Risks

Policy support is a crucial driver in the early stages of the green hydrogen industry. However, recent adjustments to hydrogen policies in many parts of the world have severely undermined corporate investment confidence. The early termination of the US 45V tax credit policy has caused some projects to shift directly from profitability to losses. At the same time, the complexity of the tax credit calculation methods has made it difficult for many projects to meet subsidy conditions, further reducing the appeal of the policies. In the EU, although the hydrogen strategy is still advancing, policy direction is gradually becoming more cautious. Other countries are also adjusting their hydrogen policies, shifting from aggressive expansion to rational investment.

(D) Funding "Cutoff": Dual Constraints of Long Investment Return Cycles and Financing Pressure

Green hydrogen projects are characterized by large investment scales and long return cycles, which conflict with the capital market's preference for short-term returns. The lengthy payback period has deterred many investors.

III. Common Characteristics of "Surviving" Projects: Key Elements for Economic Viability

Against the backdrop of numerous global green hydrogen projects being "halted midway," some projects continue to advance. Most of these projects are located in regions rich in renewable energy, such as the Middle East and North Africa, where abundant solar and wind resources significantly reduce electricity costs. At the same time, these projects are often situated near major hydrogen users like steel and chemical industries, reducing transportation costs and creating a "local production, local consumption" model, effectively enhancing project economics.

IV. Conclusion: The Darkness Before Dawn—The Green Hydrogen Industry Needs a Rational Breakthrough

The phenomenon of green hydrogen projects being "halted midway" is not a sign of industry decline but rather the inevitable growing pains as the sector transitions from concept validation to commercialization. The core challenges currently facing the global green hydrogen industry essentially stem from a mismatch between technological maturity, cost competitiveness, market demand, and policy support. However, from the perspective of the broader energy transition trend, green hydrogen is an inevitable path. There is no need to rush, nor is there cause for despair. A calm and rational approach is essential to break through the current impasse.