IEA Cuts US Renewable Energy Growth Forecast by 50%, But Global Growth Remains Robust

The latest Renewable Energy 2025 report released by the International Energy Agency shows that, due to recent policy adjustments by the Trump administration, the agency has lowered its forecast for US renewable energy growth through 2030 by 50%.

The IEA now expects the US to add close to 250 gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity between 2025 and 2030, a significant reduction from the previous forecast of 500 gigawatts.

This forecast revision stems from several policy changes, including the early phase-out of federal tax credits, new import restrictions, a pause on lease approvals for new offshore wind projects, and restrictions on permitting for onshore wind and solar projects on federal lands.

Notably, since its introduction in 1992, the tax credit has been a core driver for renewable energy development in the US.

Meanwhile, the IEA expects global installed power generation capacity from renewable energy to double by 2030, with an addition of 4,600 gigawatts. Solar power is projected to account for nearly 80% of this growth, followed by wind power.

However, the IEA also revised down its global renewable energy growth forecast by 5%, primarily due to policy adjustments in the US and China.

The IEA stated, "China's shift from long-term fixed tariffs to an auction-based contract-for difference system has introduced uncertainty, which could impact global renewable energy capacity growth."

Under the old policy framework, which ended on May 31, wind and solar projects were guaranteed stable revenues for 15 to 20 years based on a coal benchmark price. The new policy aims to drive market-oriented growth for renewable energy and promote its integration with the power grid.

The IEA predicts that this policy shift will slow down the growth rate of wind and solar installations in China during H2 2025.

Nevertheless, the agency added that China is still expected to contribute nearly 60% of the global increase in renewable energy capacity, and its wind and solar capacity targets are likely to be achieved five years ahead of the previously set 2035 deadline.

Please note that this news is sourced from https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2025-10-07/doc-inftaksk4378349.shtml and translated by SMM.