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In August, China's copper plate/sheet and strip operating rate achieved a slight MoM increase, but the actual performance fell short of expectations, being 1.05 percentage points lower than anticipated, with overall operations failing to meet earlier projections. Downstream orders for copper plate/sheet and strip grew less than expected, attributed not only to insufficient demand caused by the off-season and weak end-user demand in sectors like home appliances and PV, but also to the upward shift in copper prices' center in late August, which significantly dampened downstream manufacturers' purchase willingness and suppressed orders. Meanwhile, after policy adjustments in the secondary copper market, some companies faced tight supply of recycled copper raw materials, with increased procurement difficulty and rising procurement costs, further dragging down the operating rate.
From a product-type perspective, demand in the new energy sector remained strong, while high-end components and the power sector maintained stable demand, with copper strip market orders showing steady growth. In contrast, the brass strip market remained mediocre, as downstream demand in traditional hardware, daily consumer goods, and apparel accessories struggled to recover, with orders persistently low. Additionally, brass production's higher reliance on copper scrap exacerbated raw material shortages, further intensifying operational pressure, ultimately leading to a significant decline in brass strip manufacturers' operating rates, making it the industry's weak link.
On the processing fee front, the copper plate/sheet and strip market also exhibited divergence in August, with cost changes and competitive dynamics driving adjustments. Brass strip producers, affected by rising production costs, generally opted to raise processing fees to pass on the pressure. For instance, in Jiangxi, mainstream H65 brass strip processing fees rebounded to around 1,500 yuan/mt. Conversely, copper strip processing fees declined. Market feedback indicated that a company previously focused solely on brass strip production, facing weak demand and high cost pressure, ventured into copper strip manufacturing this month. The new entrant adopted a low-price order-grabbing strategy to quickly capture market share, triggering "rat race" competition in processing fees. Currently, t2 copper strip products have seen quotes below 2,800 yuan/mt, disrupting the existing market balance and directly impacting future copper strip price stability and order-taking strategies. Inventory side, the raw material inventory/output ratio (raw material inventory volume/monthly production) of sampled copper plate/sheet and strip enterprises stood at 15.57% in August, up 0.05 percentage points MoM, while the finished product inventory/output ratio (finished product inventories/monthly production) reached 19.34%, down 2.26 percentage points MoM. The overall inventory level currently remains normal, though it should be noted that some enterprises experienced declining raw material inventories due to tight secondary copper supply.
Looking ahead to September, based on SMM's understanding of copper plate/sheet and strip enterprises' production schedules, although the traditional peak season for the industry is approaching, some manufacturers hold a pessimistic view on current end-use demand. The high copper prices at the beginning of the month notably suppressed demand, further dampening expectations for September. Coupled with the persistent tight supply and high prices of recycled copper raw materials, the operating rate of the copper plate/sheet and strip industry is expected to rebound only marginally by 0.07 percentage points to 65.94% in September.
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